The North will have many days of heavy rain until September and the rainy area will gradually move to the Central region.
According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, it is forecasted that from now until early 2026, the ENSO phenomenon will remain neutral and the probability of El Nino/La Nina appearing is very low.
Regarding the weather from now until the end of the year, the heat will be concentrated until the end of August in the North and Central regions, then gradually decrease. In addition, the North will have many days of heavy rain until September and the rainy area will gradually move to the Central region. Some places will have 10-30% more rain than the average of many years.
Since the beginning of the year, Vietnam's weather has been affected by the ENSO phenomenon in a neutral state, manifested by fewer severe heat waves, longer heat waves and more rain. The average temperature in May and June in regions across the country is generally close to the average, except for the Thanh Hoa to Ha Tinh region in May, which is generally 0.5-1 degree Celsius lower than the average.
The Northern region experienced 6 heat waves with the highest daily temperature commonly ranging from 35-38 degrees Celsius, and higher in some places. Notably, although the past 2 months were the peak of summer, the heat waves usually lasted only 1-3 days, and only the heat wave on June 1-2 recorded the highest daily temperature of 37-39 degrees Celsius and there were monitoring points reaching 40 degrees Celsius.
The Central region, from Thanh Hoa to Hue provinces and the South Central Coast also recorded 6 heat waves, each lasting from 2-6 days. In particular, from May 7-9 and June 2, the Thanh Hoa - Nghe An region had some places with particularly severe heat with temperatures from 40 degrees Celsius such as in Tuong Duong (Nghe An), Quy Chau (Nghe An); Huong Son (Ha Tinh).
In the first half of May 2025, the Central Highlands and the South experienced many hot days, with widespread heat concentrated in the Southeast provinces with the highest daily temperature commonly ranging from 35-37 degrees Celsius, with some places above 37 degrees Celsius. From May 10 until now, the heat has decreased and only appeared locally, with some days in the East experiencing widespread heat.
Regarding the rain situation, from May until now, the Northern region and the Thanh Hoa to Hue region, the South Central Coast have all experienced 9 large-scale rains, with one every few days. Some meteorological stations have observed daily and monthly rainfall values that exceed the highest values ever recorded in the past.
Total rainfall in May across most of the country was generally 20-80% higher than the average. In the North and provinces from Thanh Hoa to Quang Tri, the Central Highlands and the South, some places were 80-150% higher, and some places were over 200% higher than the average. The area from Da Nang to Gia Lai had less rain than the same period in previous years.
In June, total rainfall in many areas was 20-50% higher than the average, especially in the provinces from Ha Tinh to Quang Ngai, it was 300-600% higher. The reason was the rain from June 10-13 under the influence of the circulation of storm No. 1, causing heavy to very heavy rain in this area, with common rainfall of 250-500mm, in some places over 600mm. The areas with less rain than the same period last year were the Northeast coast, Thanh Hoa, Nghe An, Khanh Hoa and the South.
In the first half of July, the South Central Coast, Central Highlands and the South generally had lower rainfall than the average, while other places were 20-80% higher. Notably, the area from Thanh Hoa to Quang Ngai had some places with total rainfall 2-3 times higher than the average for the same period.
Forecast of about 8-11 storms active in the East Sea
The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said that currently, the ENSO phenomenon continues to be in neutral conditions because the sea surface temperature in the equatorial central Pacific region is at a level equivalent to the average in the first week of July 2025. From August 2025 to January 2026, there is a high possibility that ENSO will continue to maintain a neutral state.
It is forecasted that there will be about 8-11 storms active in the East Sea, of which 4-5 may affect the mainland. Storms tend to concentrate in the second half of the rainy season, affecting the Central region. The possibility of storms/tropical depressions appearing in January 2026 in the South East Sea cannot be ruled out.
Notably, moderate and heavy rains are likely to occur in many places across the country. Of which, widespread heavy rains will be concentrated in the North in August-September, the Central region in September-October with some places experiencing rainfall 10-30% higher than the average. In November-December, heavy rains will occur more frequently in Ha Tinh-Quang Ngai and the East of the Central Highlands.
The heat will gradually decrease from August and the cold air will gradually become stronger from around October, increasing in intensity from November 2025. Severe cold and frost may occur widely in the North from the second half of December 2025, at a level equivalent to the average. It is necessary to be on guard against frost and ice in high mountainous areas.
Rainfall: August–October 2025: Generally close to the average; 20–40% higher in the Northeast coast, Phu Tho, Thanh Hoa and from Southern Nghe An to Quang Ngai.
November 2025 – January 2026: TLM in the North, Thanh Hoa to Quang Tri, Central Highlands and the South is 5–15% lower; Hue to Quang Ngai and some places in the South Central region are 5–15% higher than the average.
In the period from November 2025 to January 2026, there is a possibility of 2-3 storms/tropical depressions (TDPs) operating in the East Sea, of which 1-2 will affect Vietnam.
ENSO stands for El Nino - Southern Oscillation. ENSO is a broader climate phenomenon that includes three states: neutral, El Nino and La Nina. Simply put, ENSO is the overall state of El Nino, La Nino and neutral. Because of the characteristics of each weather pattern, ENSO can influence the warming and cooling of the Earth. While El Nino and La Nina refer to the warming and cooling of the East Pacific Ocean alone, ENSO refers to the entire cycle of changes in sea water temperature in the entire Pacific Ocean.
The ENSO cycle can significantly impact weather patterns, manifested in climate, temperature, rainfall, and cause climate change worldwide, especially in regions such as Asia, Africa, and North America.
During this time, it is necessary to be on guard against moderate and heavy rains in the area from Ha Tinh to Quang Ngai and the eastern part of Gia Lai to Lam Dong provinces in November and December 2025. It is likely that the area from Nghe An to Lam Dong will have total rainfall 10-25% higher than the average, while other places will be approximately the same as the average for the same period.
Thu Cuc
Source: https://baochinhphu.vn/bac-bo-con-nhieu-ngay-mua-lon-kha-nang-xuat-hien-el-nino-thap-102250717103945241.htm
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