Vietnamese coffee and the opportunity to promote and increase exports

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), at the end of the trading session on November 3, coffee prices continued to improve. Of which, Arabica prices increased by 3.36% and Robusta prices were 1.89% higher than the reference price. Inventory on the ICE and the sharp decrease in the Dollar Index created double support for prices.

In the closing report on November 3, the standard Arabica inventory on the ICE-US dropped to a more than 24-year low of 360,009 60kg bags. Inventories are a component of the total global coffee supply. Therefore, the continued sharp decline in this data despite the continued strong exports from some leading producing countries raises concerns about the ability to meet coffee needs in the short term.

At the same time, the Dollar Index continued to fall sharply by 1.04%, causing the USD/BRL exchange rate to lose 1.06%. The falling exchange rate difference made farmers less interested in selling coffee. This contributed to the price increase in yesterday's session.

In terms of output, in 2022, our country will have an output of more than 1.8 million tons, ranking second in the world after Brazil and is the country with the largest Robusta coffee output in the world.

Cà phê Việt và cơ hội quảng bá, gia tăng xuất khẩu

Vietnam's coffee exports continue to flourish (Photo: VNA)

In the third quarter of 2023, coffee prices in the domestic market remained high due to scarce supply. However, in October 2023, coffee prices decreased sharply compared to the end of September 2023. Currently, domestic coffee prices have decreased by more than VND 10,000/kg compared to the record high recorded on September 19.

Regarding exports, according to the Import-Export Department - Ministry of Industry and Trade , Robusta coffee export prices fluctuated strongly in the third quarter. Prices remained at the lowest level of the quarter in August and early September. In October, Robusta coffee prices remained low, then tended to recover quickly and strongly at the end of the month.

According to statistics from the General Department of Customs, Vietnam's coffee exports in the third quarter of 2023 reached 244.48 thousand tons, worth 735 million USD, down 46.1% in volume and 36.7% in value compared to the second quarter of 2023; down 25.3% in volume and 4.6% in value compared to the third quarter of 2022.

In recent months, among the coffee import markets, we cannot fail to mention the US with the third largest market share in the first 9 months of the year with an output of 92,107 tons, worth 218 million USD, a slight increase of 3% in volume and 2% in value. However, the export price decreased slightly by 1% to 2,377 USD/ton.

Vietnam's coffee exports are forecast to increase again in the fourth quarter of 2023 due to cyclical factors. Domestic supply is abundant due to the 2023/2024 coffee harvest taking place in the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024.

At the beginning of the year, Taste Atlas - a travel site that experiences traditional cuisine and is known as the "culinary map of the world" - released a ranking of the 10 best coffees in the world. Notably, Vietnamese iced milk coffee was ranked number 2 out of the 10 coffees. This is an opportunity to increase coffee exports in the near future.

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