Experts outline consequences if Ukraine fails to counterattack against Russia

Although Ukrainian officials continue to deny or refuse to confirm that their long-awaited campaign to retake territory from Russian forces is underway, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) – a think tank that has been tracking the war since its early days – confirmed it in a series of tweets late on June 8.

“The Ukrainian counteroffensive has begun. Military actions across Ukraine are consistent with multiple indications that Ukrainian counteroffensive operations are underway across the battlefield,” the Washington DC-based think tank said.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive “is unlikely to unfold as a single major operation,” ISW said. “It will likely involve multiple missions in multiple locations of varying scale and intensity over several weeks.”

According to ISW, the initial phase of Ukraine's counteroffensive operations will likely be the most difficult and costly in terms of the number of soldiers killed and equipment destroyed as troops and armor attempt to penetrate Russian defensive positions.

“The Ukrainian military has long recognized the infiltration phase of a mechanized attack as the most dangerous and costly. The success or failure of this phase may not be clear for some time,” ISW said.

A still image from a video released by the Russian Defense Ministry on June 5, 2023 shows a Ukrainian military vehicle being hit during a battle in Ukraine. Photo: AP/Times of Israel

Ukraine has spent six months preparing for this moment. Kiev’s forces have been equipped with artillery, tanks and trained by the West. But the Russian army has had just as much time to consolidate its defensive positions and commit more troops to the fight.

If Ukrainian forces can force Russia to withdraw from the 20 percent of territory it currently holds, they will show the Ukrainian people and their Western supporters that they can win this war.

Conversely, failure to achieve significant gains raises the specter of a frozen conflict – or even a Russian victory.

“A better quality turn”

With Ukrainian officials signaling that the start of the counteroffensive would not be officially announced, experts have also concluded that the operation has begun amid reports of increased fighting in areas along a frontline stretching more than 1,000 km (620 miles) from Kherson on the Black Sea to the Ukrainian-Russian border.

NBC News, citing a senior Ukrainian officer and a soldier near the front line, also said the attack had begun, while the Washington Post, citing four members of the Ukrainian armed forces, reported similar information on June 8.

Asked about such media reports, a spokesman for the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces told Reuters: “We have no such information.”

In his nightly video address to the nation on June 8, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hailed what he described as “results” in fierce fighting in the Donetsk region.

Soldiers of Ukraine's 110th Mechanized Brigade at a position near Avdiivka, Donetsk region, June 7, 2023. Photo: NY Times

“I am in constant contact with our military. The commanders in Khortytsia, Tavria, and all those who are in charge of the hottest areas. The Donetsk region – the battles were very difficult,” Zelensky said. “But there is a result, and I am grateful to all those who achieved this result! Bakhmut – well done. Step by step. I thank each of our soldiers!”

The Ukrainian leader also mentioned other battlefield areas and the Kakhovka dam collapse in Kherson, but said now was not the time to discuss them.

In a podcast on June 7, Michael Kofman, director of the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA), a US research organization, said the fighting had taken a “more qualitative turn” with Ukrainian forces appearing to conduct offensive operations near the eastern town of Velyka Novosilka and other locations south of the Donetsk region, as well as in the area bordering the Zaporizhia region.

“These attacks, I don’t believe they were the main offensive effort, but they marked what I think was the beginning of the Ukrainian counteroffensive,” Mr. Kofman said.

Ukrainian soldiers on an armored personnel carrier (APC) on the front line near Bakhmut, where fierce battles with Russian troops are taking place in the Donetsk region, June 5, 2023. Photo: AP/Times of Israel

Al Jazeera's Jonah Hull, reporting from Kiev, said Ukraine had made it clear that it would not be making any sustained comment on what was going on because it appeared it did not want to give up the element of surprise.

“Military analysts have given their views on what is happening or could be happening right now. And their view is that Ukraine is engaged in a series of probing strikes, or pre-counterattack shaping operations,” Al Jazeera’s correspondent said. “The Ukrainians are probing the Russians for weakness, looking for vulnerabilities, and at the same time making the Russians hesitate and hesitate.”

Fierce fighting on the ground

In recent days, Russian military and military bloggers have reported that Ukrainian forces have launched attacks in the Donetsk region, leading U.S. officials to suggest earlier this week that a counteroffensive may have begun. Evidence supporting that conclusion grew on June 8, but it remains possible that the Ukrainian attacks are a prelude to an even larger effort.

Russia's Defense Ministry said on June 8 that its forces had thwarted a Ukrainian attack earlier in the day in the Zaporizhzhia region, near the village of Novodarivka.

According to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, members of Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade, which includes dozens of armored vehicles, “made an attempt to penetrate Russian defenses” in that area, but Moscow’s air and ground forces repelled the attack. The brigade is one of several Ukrainian units that have received advanced training and equipment from the United States.

“The enemy was stopped and retreated after heavy losses,” Shoigu said.

Map assessing the situation on the ground in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as of June 7, 2023. Source: Institute for the Study of War, Critical Threats Project of the American Enterprise Institute, Google Maps. Graphics: Axios

Meanwhile, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Anna Malyar said on June 8 that a battle had taken place in an area about 16 kilometers (10 miles) from the town of Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk region, but it was unclear whether the Ukrainian official was referring to the same clash.

A map released by the British Ministry of Defense the same day identified the area as the location of an apparent Ukrainian offensive.

Neither side's claims of battle could be independently confirmed, but videos verified by the New York Times showed a Ukrainian armored vehicle near Velyka Novosilka hitting a mine.

Heavy fighting was reported further west in the Zaporizhzhia region, near the town of Orikhiv, where Ms Malyar said “the enemy is actively defending”.

Russian bloggers claimed that Ukraine had attempted to advance a few miles east of Orikhiv, near the village of Mala Tokmachka, unsuccessfully, posting videos and photos showing Leopard tanks and other German- and American-made combat vehicles, claiming that some of them had been destroyed. The New York Times confirmed the location of the images, saying they were taken recently, and that some of the equipment had been damaged or destroyed.

More than 193 km (120 miles) to the northeast, fiercer fighting was reported around the city of Bakhmut, the scene of the longest and bloodiest battle of the war. “Bakhmut – where the Russians have taken the city but the Ukrainians have moved in on its flanks – is still at the epicenter where we have switched from defense to offense. We have also eliminated a lot of enemy manpower there,” Malyar told Ukrainian television stations.

Consequences of failure

In most areas, Ukraine holds the initiative, Britain's defence intelligence agency said in its daily assessment on June 8.

But Russian bloggers say the defenders are holding firm, backed by sustained attacks by the Russian Air Force.

“After a day of continuous fighting, there is indirect information about insignificant breaches in the defense line, no breakthroughs,” former Russian paramilitary commander Igor Girkin wrote on the Telegram messaging app on the morning of June 8.

A still image taken from a video released by the Russian Defense Ministry on June 5, 2023 shows a Russian self-propelled gun firing towards Ukrainian positions at an undisclosed location. Photo: AP/Times of Israel

Western nations have provided billions of dollars worth of weapons to help Ukrainian forces gain the mobility and firepower to mount a counterattack, including modern tanks and other armored vehicles. The allies have quickly trained nine of the 12 newly formed brigades and equipped them to fight alongside other Ukrainian units.

However, while Western support for Ukraine has been solid so far, there is no guarantee that it will last in the long term. For example, the US military aid budget is expected to run out around September, and some Republicans in the US Congress have questioned the rationale for continuing the support.

If Ukraine fails to penetrate the mine belts, avoid tank traps, and break through Russian defenses, the West may no longer feel inclined to arm Ukraine, thereby pressuring Kiev to enter into negotiations with Moscow or freeze the conflict and the territorial status quo.

The collapse of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam in Kherson on June 6, which caused widespread flooding along the Dnipro River, has complicated matters for both sides, but Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, have said the impact on the battlefield will be minimal. The flooding will make it more difficult to cross the Dnipro River, which separates the warring parties in the Kherson region, but the Ukrainians say such an offensive is not in their plans .

Minh Duc (According to NY Times, Al Jazeera, Axios )

Source: https://www.nguoiduatin.vn/chuyen-gia-neu-hau-qua-neu-ukraine-phan-cong-that-bai-truoc-nga-a611884.html