The Ministry of Finance has proposed two inflation scenarios this year, in which the most optimistic scenario is that the CPI will increase by 3.2%, and the worse scenario is that it will increase by 3.7%.
Two scenarios for forecasting an increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) were presented by the Ministry of Finance at a meeting of the Price Management Steering Committee chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Le Minh Khai on August 3.
According to the report of the Ministry of Finance, the supply and prices of essential goods have not fluctuated abnormally and have developed in accordance with the management scenario of the Price Management Steering Committee. For example, interest rates are on a downward trend to ease difficulties for businesses and people; exchange rates are stable. From the beginning of the year to the end of July, the State Bank has net purchased 3.07 billion USD from credit institutions, adding to the State's foreign exchange reserves.
The consumer price index in July increased by 2.06% over the same period in 2022. On average, the CPI in the first 7 months increased by 3.12% over the same period last year; core inflation increased by 4.65%.
According to the Ministry of Finance, the room for price management in the remaining months of this year is "easier". The agency has proposed two inflation scenarios for the remaining months of this year. Scenario 1, the average CPI in 2023 is forecast to increase by 3.2% compared to last year on the basis of food prices increasing by 3%; rental housing increasing by 8%, housing maintenance materials becoming more expensive by 3%, medical service prices increasing by 4%; and gasoline and gas prices decreasing by 10%.
Scenario 2, CPI this year increases by about 3.7% when gasoline prices decrease by less than 5%, food prices and medical services increase by 5% and 6% respectively.
With the given scenarios, the Ministry of Finance forecasts that the average CPI this year will increase by 3.2-3.7%, lower than the target set at the beginning of the year to control the increase by 4.5% (meaning that each month at the end of the year, this index still has room to increase by 1.61%).
Deputy Prime Minister Le Minh Khai chaired the Steering Committee meeting on August 3. Photo: VGP
Meanwhile, the General Statistics Office forecasts the CPI to increase by about 3-3.5% assuming that education service prices do not increase as planned. Similarly, the State Bank forecasts that average inflation this year will increase by about 3.7% (plus or minus 0.5%).
Concluding the meeting, Deputy Prime Minister Le Minh Khai noted that it is necessary to continue to closely monitor developments in the petroleum market to prepare appropriate measures. The Ministry of Industry and Trade will synchronously and effectively implement solutions to ensure petroleum supply for the domestic market. "There must be no shortage or disruption of petroleum supply," said the Deputy Prime Minister.
The Ministry is also required to promptly complete and submit to the Government a draft Decree amending and supplementing Decree No. 95/2021 and Decree No. 83/2014 on petroleum trading under the direction of the Prime Minister.
Regarding electricity prices, the Ministry of Industry and Trade urges EVN to report quarterly updated electricity price plans to implement electricity prices according to regulations. The amendment and supplementation of Decision No. 24/2017 on the mechanism for adjusting average retail electricity prices and Decision 28/2014 on the structure of retail electricity prices need to be completed soon.
Regarding agricultural products, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development coordinates with the Ministry of Industry and Trade to closely monitor market fluctuations; production and supply, especially agricultural products in the main season to orient production and business to meet market demand, limit factors affecting prices, and ensure the interests of people, businesses and the State.
In the remaining months of the year, Deputy Prime Minister Le Minh Khai requested ministries, branches and localities to ensure supply and demand of goods, and prepare adequate sources of goods, especially food, foodstuffs, essential goods and consumer services.
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