Economic news review June 11

The central exchange rate increased by 8 VND compared to the first session of the week; the World Bank maintained its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth in 2024 at 5.5%; the VN-Index decreased by 6.26 points, these are notable economic news on June 11.

Domestic news

In the foreign exchange market on June 11, the State Bank listed the central exchange rate at 24,250 VND/USD, up 8 VND compared to the first session of the week. The spot buying rate and spot selling rate remained unchanged at 23,400 VND/USD and 25,450 VND/USD, respectively.

On the interbank market, the exchange rate closed at 25,450 VND/USD, continuing to increase by 25 VND compared to the session on June 10. The exchange rate on the free market decreased by 20 VND in the buying direction while increasing by 30 VND in the selling direction, trading at 25,650 VND/USD and 25,780 VND/USD.

Interbank money market, June 11, the average interbank VND interest rate increased by 0.03 - 0.23 percentage points for all terms from 1 month or less compared to the first session of the week; specifically: overnight 4.49%; 1 week 4.57%; 2 weeks 4.70% and 1 month 4.86%. The average interbank USD interest rate remained unchanged for most terms except for an increase of 0.02 percentage points for the 1 week term, trading at: overnight 5.27%; 1 week 5.34%; 2 weeks 5.39%, 1 month 5.41%. Government bond yields in the secondary market remained unchanged for the 3-year term while increasing for the remaining terms; closing at: 3 years 1.90%; 5 years 2.01%; 7 years 2.30%; 10 years 2.81%; 15 years 3.02%.

In open market operations, on the mortgage channel, the State Bank bid 3,000 billion VND, with a term of 07 days, the interest rate remained at 4.5%. There were 1,529.89 billion VND won, 2,017.3 billion VND matured. The State Bank bid for 28-day SBV bills, bidding for interest rates. There were 1,300 billion VND won with the interest rate remained at 4.25%, 550 billion VND matured bills. Thus, the State Bank withdrew a net 1,237.41 billion VND from the market, the volume of bills circulating in the market was 68,710 billion VND, the volume on the mortgage channel was 6,282.3 billion VND.

Yesterday's stock market, although opening in the green, still experienced a very difficult time. At the end of the session, VN-Index decreased by 6.26 points (-0.49%) to 1,284.41 points; HNX-Index increased by 0.83 points (+0.34%) to 246.41 points; UPCoM-Index lost 0.61 points (-0.61%) to 98.95 points. Market liquidity improved with a trading value of nearly VND 28,400 billion. Foreign investors net sold for the 13th consecutive session, more than VND 1,855 billion on all 3 exchanges.

In the recently released World Economic Outlook Report, the World Bank maintained its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth in 2024 at 5.5% as forecast in October 2023. GDP in 2025 and 2026 is forecast by the WB to grow at 6.0% and 6.5%, respectively.

International News

World Bank slightly raises global economic outlook for 2024. In its recently released report, the WB forecasts global GDP to grow by 2.6% this year (+0.2 percentage points compared to the previous forecast) and 2.7% in 2025 (unchanged).

In this forecast, in developed economies, GDP in the US 2024 is revised up sharply to 2.5% (+0.9 percentage points), and to 1.8% next year (+0.1 percentage points); Eurozone GDP increases by 0.7% (unchanged) and 1.4% (-0.2 percentage points), respectively; Japan's GDP increases by 0.7% (-0.2 percentage points) and 1.0% (+0.2 percentage points), respectively.

Next, in developing economies, China's GDP is forecast to grow by 4.8% this year (+0.3 percentage points) and 4.2% next year (-0.2 percentage points); India's by 6.6% (+0.2 percentage points) and 6.7% (+0.2 percentage points).

In Southeast Asia: Indonesia's GDP increased by 5.0% (+0.1 percentage points) and 5.1% (+0.1 percentage points), respectively; Thailand increased by 2.4% (-0.8 percentage points) and 2.8% (-0.3 percentage points). According to the WB, the global economy is stabilizing after many years of negative shocks. However, the general trend of inflation decline is slowing down, causing central banks in advanced and emerging economies to maintain caution, and high interest rates after the pandemic will last longer than expected. In addition, the WB warned that escalating geopolitical tensions could lead to fluctuations in commodity prices, especially during times of uncertainty about trade policies between countries.

The UK labour market recorded many important indicators. The UK Office for National Statistics said that the number of unemployment benefit applications in the country increased by 50.4 thousand in May, higher than the increase of 8.9 thousand in the previous month and at the same time higher than the forecast of 10.2 thousand. The unemployment rate in the country last month also inched up to 4.4%, contrary to the forecast of continuing to remain flat at 4.3% as the statistical results of April. Finally, the average income of British workers increased by 5.9% 3m/y in the 3 months of 03-04-05, slightly higher than the increase in the 3 months of 02-03-04 and at the same time also forecast at 5.7%.

Source: https://thoibaonganhang.vn/diem-lai-thong-tin-kinh-te-ngay-116-152534-152534.html