What is the forecast for the real estate market in 2025?

The "backbone" decisions are effective

The 2024 Land Law, 2023 Housing Law and 2023 Real Estate Business Law officially take effect from August 1, 2024, 5 months earlier than planned, which is an important turning point for the real estate market.

Along with the three laws mentioned above, many localities have also issued new land price lists and new regulations on land division conditions. Notably, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City have made strong adjustments to both of these contents.

The new land price list issued by Ho Chi Minh City will be applied from October 31 to December 31, 2025. The highest recorded land price is 687 million VND/m2, in the area of ​​Dong Khoi, Le Loi, Nguyen Hue streets (District 1). This price is 4 times higher than the old land price list.

The new land price list was also announced by the Hanoi People's Committee on December 20 and will take effect immediately until December 31, 2025. The newly issued land price list is 2-6 times higher than the old price list.

Notably, the land price on many streets in Hoan Kiem district including Ba Trieu (from Hang Khay to Tran Hung Dao), Dinh Tien Hoang, Hai Ba Trung (from Le Thanh Tong to Quan Su), Hang Dao, Hang Khay, Hang Ngang, Le Thai To, Ly Thuong Kiet, Nha Tho, Tran Hung Dao (from Tran Thanh Tong to Le Duan) has the highest price of over 695.3 million VND/m2. This price is 3.7 times higher than before the adjustment.

Land prices in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City have changed dramatically (Photo: Duong Tam).

In addition, many localities also issue regulations on conditions for land division, conditions for land consolidation and minimum area for land division.

In Ho Chi Minh City, the minimum area for land separation, consolidation, newly formed land plots and remaining land plots after separation (excluding the area under traffic planning) must be at least 36m2 in districts in area 1, 50m2 for area 2 and 80m2 for area 3.

In Hanoi, on October 7, new regulations on land division areas officially took effect. Specifically, for residential land in wards and towns, land plots must be at least 4m long and wide, with a minimum area of ​​50m2.

In the plain communes, the area after separation must not be less than 80m2, in the midland it is 100m2, in the mountainous area it is 150m2. This is to ensure reasonable planning, avoiding excessive subdivision of land plots.

The regulation prohibiting the subdivision and sale of land plots has also been "hot" in some provinces and cities in the past year. Specifically, Ho Chi Minh City banned the subdivision and sale of land plots in projects for organizations and individuals to build their own houses, including all 5 districts of Binh Chanh, Nha Be, Hoc Mon, Cu Chi and Can Gio.

In 2024, the real estate market in Hanoi will be noticed as selling prices are increasingly pushed up, especially in the apartment segment.

According to data from a research unit, the price of apartments in Hanoi increased from an average of 40 million VND/m2 in 2022 to more than 70 million VND/m2 by the end of the third quarter of 2024. The continuous sharp increase in apartment prices in Hanoi makes the possibility of home ownership increasingly remote for people.

On social networks, there are also community groups calling for a stop to buying houses in Hanoi to avoid "crazy prices". The number of members of these groups is increasing rapidly, reaching 100,000-200,000 members, in just a short time.

At this time, the controversy over "who is inflating apartment prices?" has occurred. Mr. Nguyen Van Dinh - Vice President of the Vietnam Real Estate Association (VNREA) - assessed that for nearly a year now, the selling price of the Hanoi real estate market has been illusory. In particular, the apartment type has increased by more than 50% in some places, residential land and land plots in districts about to become districts have increased by more than 90%.

He said that the main reason for the high real estate prices is that new supply is concentrated in the high-end segment. Some investors and speculators have taken advantage of the scarcity of suitable supply to push up apartment prices.

Many land auctions in 2024 caused a stir in public opinion (Photo: Duong Tam).

Land auction is also a hot keyword in the Hanoi real estate market in 2024. The highest winning price also continuously set records such as in Hoai Duc at over 133 million VND/m2, Thanh Oai at over 100 million VND/m2. In particular, the auction in Thanh Oai recorded about 80% of the winning customers not paying.

The hot land auctions continued in other districts such as Ha Dong, Thach That, Soc Son. In particular, the auction of 58 land lots in Soc Son district caused the most noise when the bid was up to 30 billion VND/m2, 12,000 times higher than the starting price.

Faced with unusual signs of the auction in Soc Son, the Hanoi City Police Investigation Agency has urgently arrested and detained 5 suspects for investigation related to the bid of 30 billion VND/m2.

The real estate market in Ho Chi Minh City in 2024 continues to record a shortage of housing projects and products. In 11 months, only 4 projects, equivalent to more than 1,600 units, were eligible to mobilize capital to bring products to the market, down 75% compared to the same period last year. However, these products are all in the high-end segment.

Mr. Le Hoang Chau - Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association (HoREA) - said that this is the first time that the high-end housing segment has dominated the entire market and there is no longer a supply of mid-range and affordable housing (new) at affordable prices in commercial projects.

Real estate market 2025: Continuing to enter a new cycle

The Chairman of HoREA predicts that in 2025, the market will continue to experience a shortage of new real estate projects, a shortage of commercial housing and social housing, leading to high housing prices.

The continuous increase in housing prices in recent years is due to the limited supply of commercial housing projects, leading to a continued shortage of commercial housing supply according to the law of supply and demand, with apartment price increases of about 15-20% in the period 2015-2023 and possibly another 15-20% in 2025.

According to the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS), in 2025 the market will continue to boldly enter a new cycle, despite some remaining difficulties and obstacles. The heat of the market will gradually spread more evenly among regions. In particular, the Northern region will continue to be hot, while the Southern region will show clear signs of increasing heat.

Housing supply is forecast to continue to focus on the high-end segment (Illustration: Duong Tam).

For the residential real estate segment, the supply is forecast to grow, still mainly contributed by suburban metropolises. It is estimated that the real estate supply in Hanoi and satellite cities will reach about 37,000 products, while in Ho Chi Minh City and its suburbs it is estimated to reach about 18,000 products. The supply of residential real estate will reduce regional differentiation.

The supply structure is still mainly high-end and luxury products. However, the affordable segment will be improved more clearly thanks to the increase of social housing projects.

The apartment segment, mainly the high-end segment, continues to lead the market. The villa/townhouse segment is gradually becoming the focus of the market. Especially projects in large urban areas continue to attract attention with increasingly impressive finishing standards, along with high selling prices.

Supply is still mainly concentrated in large investors. Projects focus more on smart design, technology integration and meeting sustainable standards.

For subdivided land with standard legal documents in areas with developed infrastructure and high potential, it is still the segment that many people are willing to "pay". Subdivided land with guaranteed legal documents in areas with completed infrastructure, valued at less than 2 billion VND, continues to record a good price increase rate.

The already bright industrial real estate segment is even brighter with positive signals from the economic recovery, as well as opportunities opening up from many "eagles" in the world with the decision to choose Vietnam as a "landing place".

The tourism and resort real estate segment has more positive signals, especially condotel products when there are projects in operation that have been granted certificates. The commercial and office real estate segment maintains a stable growth momentum.

M&A activities, cooperation, and project development association continue to maintain heat with increasingly impressive results. Liquidity is still concentrated in areas with abundant and diverse new supply, provinces/cities with high urbanization rates. Transactions in suburban areas, provinces/cities around the two special urban areas increased sharply.

Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh - real estate expert - stated that from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the second quarter of 2025 is the period when the market enters a consolidation phase. Investors are gradually more confident in the development prospects of the real estate industry. The apartment segment will now give up its focal position to private houses and townhouses.

After this period, the market will move towards a period of recovery, expected to start from the second quarter of 2025 to the fourth quarter of 2025. At this time, investors will no longer place too much emphasis on selling price and legal factors like when the market was gloomy. Instead, the potential for price increase is the key to deciding to spend money. Therefore, profitable segments such as land and project villas are also given special attention by investors.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/bat-dong-san/du-bao-gi-cho-thi-truong-bat-dong-san-2025-20241230155916375.htm