Gasoline price forecast for August 21: Will it increase again after a decrease?

According to the plan, the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Ministry of Finance will adjust the retail price of gasoline periodically tomorrow (August 21). The leader of a major gasoline distribution enterprise in the South said that after the previous adjustment period, crude oil prices have fluctuated in opposite directions, and have recently shown a downward trend.

On August 18, the price of imported gasoline in the Singapore market was at 79.42 USD/barrel for RON 95 gasoline, equivalent to 5 days ago; RON 92 gasoline was at 76.71 USD/barrel, down nearly 0.5 USD/barrel. It is likely that domestic gasoline prices will increase slightly in the operating period on August 21.

Gasoline prices are expected to increase by about VND50-200/liter. Meanwhile, diesel prices may decrease by another VND100-300/liter. If the joint ministries spend from the Price Stabilization Fund, gasoline prices may remain unchanged.

The owner of a petroleum distribution company in the North also predicted that petroleum prices will fluctuate in the operating period tomorrow. On August 19, the discount on petroleum at some warehouses was at 1,200-1,500 VND/liter, of which the discount on diesel was at 1,350 VND/liter.

If forecasts are correct, domestic gasoline prices will rebound slightly after a decrease. Currently, this fuel price is at a low level in more than 4 years, equivalent to June 2021. Since the beginning of the year, RON 95 gasoline has increased 18 times, decreased 16 times. Diesel has increased 16 times, decreased 16 times and remained unchanged once.

In the most recent adjustment on August 14, E5 RON 92 gasoline decreased by VND250/liter to VND19,350/liter; RON 95 gasoline also decreased by VND190/liter to VND19,880/liter. Diesel oil decreased by VND730/liter to VND18,070/liter, kerosene decreased by VND640/liter to VND18,020/liter; fuel oil decreased by VND380/kg to VND15,260/kg.

In the world market, in the trading session on August 19, oil prices fell as the market hoped that negotiations to end the conflict in Ukraine would lead to the easing of sanctions on Russian crude oil, increasing world supply, according to Reuters.

Phil Flynn, an expert at Price Futures Group, said the oil market is waiting for a ceasefire. If this expectation fails, oil prices could rebound.

Meanwhile, Suvro Sarkar, an energy analyst at DBS Bank, said geopolitical risks have eased somewhat, with US President Donald Trump softening his stance on secondary sanctions against Russian oil importers, which has helped ease concerns about potential disruptions to global supplies.

According to Bart Melek, an expert at TD Securities, if geopolitical tensions continue to ease and the risk of tariffs or secondary sanctions is removed, oil prices could fall to $58/barrel in the fourth and first quarters of 2026.

Data from Trading Economics shows that at 8:30 a.m. on August 20, WTI oil was trading at $62/barrel, up 0.06% from last week; similarly, Brent oil was also at $65.99/barrel, up 0.22%.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/du-bao-gia-xang-ngay-218-tang-tro-lai-sau-mot-phien-giam-20250820083012728.htm