Elon Musk believes that there is only a 20% chance that AI could lead to the destruction of humanity. Musk shared: “The probability of achieving a good result is about 80%.” This is not the first time he has mentioned this possibility, previously he gave a rate of 10% to 20%.
Musk predicted that AI would surpass human intelligence within the next year or two, and hoped that by 2029 or 2030, AI would be “smarter than all humans combined.” While this timeline has been revised from previous predictions, his belief in the development of AI remains unchanged. “I always thought that AI would be much smarter than humans and that it was an existential risk,” he stressed. “And that is becoming true.”
Elon Musk is not the only one concerned about AI
Geoffrey Hinton, who is considered the father of AI, believes that there is a 10% chance that AI will lead to the extinction of humanity in the next 30 years. Meanwhile, AI safety researcher Roman Yampolskiy gives a more worrying figure, with the probability of extinction up to 99.999999%.
Despite his concerns about AI’s destruction of humanity, Musk said he joined the AI project initially with the goal of creating a “non-profit open source AI” to counter Google. Musk was one of 11 co-founders of OpenAI, but has since left the organization. Last year, Musk filed two lawsuits against OpenAI, claiming that the organization had “betrayed” its mission by switching to a for-profit model and partnering with Microsoft.
In the interview, Elon Musk also expressed dissatisfaction with OpenAI's results, which prompted him to develop Grok, an “AI that seeks the maximum truth, even if that truth is politically incorrect .” He said the most likely outcome from AI advancements could be “amazing,” but could also be “extremely bad.”
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