World coffee prices ended the last session with a sharp increase as inventories on the floor continued to decrease and export sales from major suppliers were low. In addition, on both floors, due to overselling last week, they had to buy at the end of last week.
Last week, the price of robusta coffee in London for November 2023 delivery increased by 29 USD/ton; the price of arabica coffee for December 2023 delivery increased by 8.85 cents/lb. Meanwhile, domestic coffee prices decreased by 500 VND/kg, a much smaller decrease than the decrease of 2,200 VND/kg last week.
Last week, some signs that the arabica production in Central America and Colombia will not meet expectations, due to excessive rain and the easing of drought concerns in Brazil, helped New York futures prices to temporarily stop falling. Meanwhile, pressure from Vietnam's upcoming new crop pushed robusta prices down to a six-month low.
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| Domestic coffee prices continued to increase by 300 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities during the trading session last weekend (October 14). (Source: doanhnhan.biz/) |
At the end of this weekend's trading session (October 13), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for November 2023 delivery continued to increase by 28 USD, trading at 2,388 USD/ton. The January 2024 delivery period increased by 29 USD, trading at 2,284 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange for December 2023 delivery increased sharply by 5.6 cents, trading at 154.9 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the March 2024 delivery price increased by 5.15 cents, trading at 155.15 cents/lb. Trading volume increased.
Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures - London exchange opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 the following day, Vietnam time. Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US exchange (New York exchange) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 the following day, Vietnam time.
Domestic coffee prices continued to increase by 300 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities during the trading session last weekend (October 14).
Unit: VND/kg. (Source: Giacaphe.com) |
Last week, the war in the Middle East was a new factor affecting coffee futures prices. Along with the increase in gold and crude oil prices, Arabica coffee had a week of recovery with a rate of over 5%. Coffee prices also increased because the market believed that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would temporarily stop raising interest rates this year.
Experts predict that coffee will face many difficulties in the upward direction. That is because the two exchanges have escaped the oversold situation and the market is waiting for the return of Brazilian supply.
Regarding the robusta coffee market, basic information on the market is quite optimistic with the promotion of exporting this product in Brazil and the positive prospect of the new coffee crop harvest in Vietnam.
In the context of the new crop coffee supply in Vietnam not being able to be pushed to the market abundantly, Brazil is still actively exporting available robusta coffee to take advantage of good prices before there is additional supply from Vietnam.
In addition, although export activities remain gloomy due to scarce supply, coffee harvest in Vietnam is being supported by dry weather during the day. This helps the market expect positive supply in the coming time.
Although robusta coffee prices increased, the domestic market decreased. In the first 2 weeks of October 2023, domestic coffee prices lost nearly 3,000 VND/kg.
Experts assess that if the coffee harvest in Vietnam continues to be favorable in the 2023-2024 crop season (starting in October), the price of robusta coffee in general and Vietnamese coffee in particular will continue to decrease in the last months of the year. According to historical cycles, the amount of coffee exported from our country can only clearly improve in November when the harvest is concentrated and new supplies become available.
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