Coffee prices fall across the board, Arabica hits two-month low

The Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) said that after two positive sessions, the MXV-Index is recovering close to the 2,200-point threshold. In yesterday's trading session, 3 out of 4 commodity groups closed in the green, many commodities increased in price. Notably, in the energy market, two crude oil commodities extended their gains to the second session.

Giá cà phê đồng loạt giảm, Arabica chạm đáy hai tháng

MXV-Index

Positive supply outlook puts pressure on coffee prices

In contrast to the trend in the energy market, the industrial raw material group witnessed a clear differentiation between key commodities.

Contrary to the general market trend, Arabica coffee prices fell to their lowest level in nearly two months, losing 1.05% to 7,514 USD/ton, while Robusta coffee prices continued to lose another 0.92% to 4,435 USD/ton, the lowest level in 7 months.

Industrial raw material price list

The global coffee market has witnessed a significant decline since May 2025, mainly due to increased supply from the world's two largest producing countries, Brazil and Indonesia.

Most notable is Robusta coffee, as global production in the current crop year has increased significantly. According to data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), global Arabica coffee production in the 2024-25 crop year is estimated to reach 97.8 million 60-kg bags, up 1.5% from the previous crop year, while Robusta production is expected to reach 77.0 million bags, up 7.5% from the 2023-24 crop year.

Arabica coffee prices fell to their lowest level in nearly two months, losing 1.05% to $7,514 per ton.

In Brazil, Safras & Mercado reported that as of May 28, 2025, nearly 20% of the new coffee crop had been harvested. Although this year’s harvest is slower than last year’s (22%), the harvest is still higher due to strong crop growth forecasts, especially Robusta. Based on a new crop forecast of 65.51 million bags, about 13.1 million bags of coffee have been harvested to date, of which 5.85 million bags are Robusta and 7.25 million bags are Arabica.

In addition, the market is also under pressure from new Robusta supplies in Uganda - Africa's leading Robusta exporter with about 10% of total global Robusta exports. In April 2025, the country's total coffee exports reached 694,318 bags, up 77.44% over the same period last year, of which Robusta accounted for 594,188 bags, up sharply by 104.63% over the same month last year.

In addition, coffee inventories remain high, further adding to the pressure on prices. According to ICE data, Robusta inventories on June 3 were down only 29 lots from an 8.5-month high of 5,438 bags on May 30. Similarly, Arabica inventories were down slightly from a 4-month high of 892,468 bags on Tuesday.

Geopolitical tensions push oil prices further up

According to MXV, at the end of yesterday's trading session, the energy group continued to see green across all five commodities. Of which, Brent oil price increased by 1.55% to 65.63 USD/barrel, while WTI oil price increased by 1.42% to 63.41 USD/barrel, both reaching the highest level in the past three weeks. According to MXV, the world crude oil market continued to maintain its upward momentum as geopolitical tensions showed no signs of cooling down.

Energy price list

The latest developments show that tensions are escalating again in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, despite efforts to negotiate from the parties involved. According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, negotiations to end the conflict in Ukraine are extremely complicated and it would be wrong to expect any decisions soon. However, Russia is still waiting for Ukraine's response to proposals made during previous peace talks in Türkiye.

Wildfires continue to rage in southwestern Canada, disrupting oil production there, which has significantly diminished the impact of OPEC+ increasing production by 411,000 barrels per day for the third consecutive month.

In addition to supply concerns, oil prices were also supported by expectations of cyclical demand growth in the United States. Many market forecasts said that commercial crude oil inventories in the country will fall by about 1 million barrels in the working week ending May 30, continuing the trend of the previous week on expectations of increased demand during the peak travel season of Americans.

Prices of some other goods