World coffee prices fluctuated, robusta adjusted down after a series of consecutive increases, arabica increased slightly. Speculators on the London floor sold heavily in the last session of the month to adjust their business positions after overbuying in the previous period.
Domestic coffee prices have decreased compared to yesterday. However, after a series of recent increases, the highest price is currently recorded in Dak Nong at VND 79,500/kg. In the whole month of January 2024, domestic coffee prices increased by more than VND 11,000/kg. In December 2023, domestic coffee prices increased by an average of VND 8,500/kg while the harvest was underway.
Brazil is now set to export 39.2 million bags of coffee in 2023, roughly flat (-0.4%) from the previous year, according to Rabobank. But climate-related arabica prices in Brazil are volatile, with ICE-certified inventories hovering around a 24-year low. Meanwhile, while there has been some rain in southern Brazil recently, rainfall levels remain below historical averages.
Cecafé said that Conilon coffee prices increased due to increasing domestic and international demand, while Vietnamese farmers continued to show price resistance and incidents on shipping routes through the Red Sea.
Although the General Statistics Office of Vietnam estimated a sharp increase in coffee exports in January 2024, it did not contribute to improving the inventory report data of ICE – London, which is currently continuing to fall sharply to the lowest level since 2014 with 2,886 lots (about 481,000 bags, 60 kg bags), according to the report data on January 30. Observers said that traders mainly deliver directly to consuming markets without trading on the floor.
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| Domestic coffee prices today, February 1, decreased by 200 - 300 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Koreajoongangdaily) |
At the end of the last trading session of January 2024 (January 31), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange decreased, the delivery period of March 2024 decreased by 31 USD, trading at 3,305 USD/ton. The delivery period of May 2024 decreased by 13 USD, trading at 3,168 USD/ton. The average trading volume was high.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange increased slightly, with the March 2024 delivery period increasing by 0.05 cents, trading at 194.05 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the May 2024 delivery period increased by 0.7 cents, trading at 190.95 cents/lb. Average trading volume is high.
Domestic coffee prices today, February 1, were adjusted down by 200 - 300 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities.
Unit: VND/kg. (Source: Giacaphe.com) |
According to data from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), after declining in the previous crop year, global coffee trade is showing an upward trend again. Accordingly, global coffee exports reached 10.6 million bags in November 2023, up 4.1% over the same period in 2022. Bringing total exports in the first two months of the 2023-2024 crop year (October and November 2023) to 20.2 million bags, up 3.1% over the previous crop year.
In terms of proportion, green coffee beans accounted for 92% of total global coffee exports in November with 9.8 million bags, up 7.6% over the same period in 2022.
In the first two months of the 2023-2024 crop year, green coffee exports increased by 3.9% to 18.4 million bags. Of which, Colombian Arabica coffee exports increased by 34% to 1.15 million bags in November. Mainly due to Colombia, the main exporter of this coffee group, recording an increase of 35.6%.
With this result, Colombian Arabica coffee exports increased by 18.7% in the first two months of the 2023-2024 crop year to 2.1 million bags.
In addition, exports of Brazilian Arabica coffee increased by 1.6% to 3.6 million bags in November and increased by 4% after the first two months of the 2023-2024 crop year to reach more than 7.3 million bags. Brazil, the main exporter of this coffee group, sold 3.2 million bags in November, up 2.6% compared to the same period in 2022.
Similarly, robusta exports increased by 4% to 3.7 million bags in November. This was the largest November export volume on record, surpassing the peak set in November 2022 due to a surge in Brazilian robusta exports of 850.2%. However, total robusta exports in the first two months of 2023-24 were still down 2.5% year-on-year at 6.2 million bags.
In contrast to green coffee, instant coffee exports fell 25.4% in November and 3% in the first two months of the 2023-24 crop year to 1.75 million bags. The share of instant coffee in total coffee exports so far this year is 8.6%, down from 9.2% in the same period last year.
Brazil, the world’s largest exporter of instant coffee, shipped 0.24 million bags to the world market in November. Roasted coffee exports also fell 15.5% in November and totaled just 0.1 million bags in the first two months of the 2023-24 crop year, down from 0.13 million bags in the same period last year.
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