Robusta coffee prices continue to rise, domestic market trading at record high

At the end of the most recent trading session, the price of Robusta coffee in London for May 2024 delivery increased by 2 USD/ton, at 4,083 USD/ton, and for July 2024 delivery increased by 18 USD/ton, at 4,080 USD/ton. The delivery term for July 2024 increased by 18 USD, trading at 4,080 USD/ton. The average trading volume is high.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange increased, with the May 2024 delivery term up 1.55 cents, trading at 241.40 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the July 2024 delivery term increased 0.75 cents, trading at 231.85 cents/lb. Trading volume was high on average.

To conclude the week, Robusta coffee futures for May delivery increased by a total of $183. Arabica coffee futures for May delivery increased by 16.75 cents. Domestic coffee prices continued to increase by an average of VND13,000/kg, continuously breaking down the price levels.

Last week, Robusta coffee futures for May delivery rose $156. Arabica coffee futures for May delivery rose 12.15 cents. Domestic coffee prices rose an average of VND7,000 per kilogram.

Since the beginning of April, domestic coffee prices have increased dramatically, by more than 20,000 VND/kg. In March 2024, the market increased to 15,000 VND/kg, at which point everyone thought that coffee had reached its peak and could not increase further. But coffee prices have increased more and more, beyond all speculations of market participants.

According to experts, coffee prices have increased partly due to concerns about supply shortages. World coffee production this year is expected to decrease by about 10-15%. Meanwhile, Vietnam's output in the 2023-2024 crop year is forecast to decrease by 10%. In addition, tensions in the Red Sea have increased shipping costs and many other costs, thereby creating pressure to push coffee prices even higher.

Nguồn cung giảm sút do khô hạn kéo dài đẩy giá cà phê tăng lên 124,000 đồng/kg

Coffee prices continued to increase sharply in the domestic market last week.

Coffee prices continued to increase sharply in the domestic market last week. Accordingly, the highest coffee transaction price was recorded at VND124,000/kg in Dak Nong province, an increase of VND12,600/kg compared to the beginning of the week. Gia Lai and Lam Dong provinces are both purchasing coffee at VND122,500/kg, an increase of VND11,500/kg and VND12,000/kg respectively last week. Traders in Dak Lak are trading coffee at VND123,500/kg, an increase of VND12,300/kg.

According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), global coffee exports are showing signs of recovery after a decline in the previous crop year. According to ICO data, global coffee exports in the first five months of the 2023-2024 crop year (October 2023 to February 2024) totaled 56.2 million bags, up 11% compared to 50.6 million bags in the same period of the 2022-2023 crop year.

In February alone, this figure reached 11.3 million bags, up 6.8% over the same period last year. This increase is attributed to improved supply compared to the previous crop.

In terms of variety, green coffee accounted for 92% of total global coffee exports in February with over 10.4 million bags, up 9.6% year-on-year. Notably, this was the largest February export volume on record, surpassing the previous record of 10.3 million bags set in 2019.

Cumulatively, after the first 5 months of the 2023-2024 crop year, green coffee bean exports reached 50.8 million bags, up 11.7% over the same period last year. Brazil is the main driver of global green coffee bean export growth, with more than 3.4 million bags sold in February, up nearly 60% over the same period in 2023.

Of which, Arabica reached 2.8 million bags, up 38.4%. With this result, the export of green coffee group Arabica Brazil increased by 36.6% in February and increased by 16.7% in the first 5 months of the 2023 - 2024 crop year, reaching 15.2 million bags.

Analysts see Brazil’s growing Robusta production as a major contributor to more stable global coffee production. Brazil’s Robusta coffee trees do not undergo a biennial production cycle like Arabica.

Brazil, the world's largest coffee grower and exporter, is expected to post its third annual increase in coffee production this year. Experts say the positive streak could continue for another year, through 2025. Notably, Robusta production has increased sharply in a country that has historically produced the mild-flavored, less bitter Arabica variety. Robusta is widely used to make instant coffee.

Meanwhile, in Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of Robusta coffee, supplies are expected to fall sharply. The Vietnam Coffee Association (Vicofa) said that Vietnam’s coffee exports in the 2023-2024 crop year are estimated to fall 20% compared to the previous crop year, to 1.336 million tons.

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