2026 World Cup Qualifiers - Asian Zone, Round 4: What are Indonesia's chances?

At 3 PM today, July 17th, the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) will conduct the draw for the two groups in the fourth round of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers in Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia). The Indonesian national team (representing Southeast Asia) is at a disadvantage.

The AFC's early designation of Qatar and Saudi Arabia as hosts for the group stages of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers in the Asian region led to a change in the seeding principles for the six teams participating in this round. In addition to the two group hosts, the remaining six teams are Indonesia, Iraq, Oman, and the UAE.

The Indonesian team (15) faces many challenges in their journey to find a ticket to the 2026 World Cup.

Photo: Reuters

The AFC used the FIFA rankings from June 13th to determine the seeding, instead of the rankings announced on July 10th. This was to separate Qatar and Saudi Arabia into two different groups. Based on the June 13th FIFA rankings, Qatar was ranked 53rd in the world , while Saudi Arabia was 58th. However, according to the recent July FIFA rankings, Iraq is ranked 58th and Saudi Arabia 59th; Qatar remains at 53rd.

Therefore, if Iraq is seeded number 1 along with Qatar, the Indonesian team could avoid at least one strong opponent in the same group.

Accordingly, the seeded groups were determined as follows: Group 1: Qatar and Saudi Arabia; Group 2: Iraq and UAE; Group 3: Oman and Indonesia. From these three seeded groups, teams were drawn into two groups, with three teams in each group. Thus, Indonesia only avoided facing Oman because they were in the same seeded group, while the probability of facing the two strong teams Qatar or Saudi Arabia and Iraq or UAE was very high.

The fourth round of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers in the Asian region will take place from October 8-14. The top teams in each of the two groups will secure the remaining two automatic qualification spots for the 2026 World Cup from the Asian region. The two second-placed teams will play two playoff matches on November 13 and 18, with the winners advancing to the intercontinental play-off (6 teams) to compete for the remaining two spots in March 2026.

Source: https://thanhnien.vn/vong-loai-thu-4-world-cup-2026-khu-vuc-chau-a-co-hoi-nao-cho-indonesia-185250716214752193.htm