2026 World Cup Asian Qualifiers Round 4: What are Indonesia's chances?

At 3:00 p.m. today, July 17, the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) conducted the draw to divide the two groups in the 4th qualifying round of the 2026 World Cup in Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia). The Indonesian team (representing the Southeast Asian region) was at a disadvantage.

The AFC's early designation of Qatar and Saudi Arabia as the hosts of the groups in the 4th qualifying round of the 2026 World Cup in Asia led to a change in the seeding principle for the 6 teams participating in this round. In addition to the 2 teams hosting the above groups, there are also Indonesia, Iraq, Oman and UAE.

Indonesia team (15) faces many challenges in the journey to find a ticket to the 2026 World Cup

Photo: Reuters

AFC used the teams' positions on the FIFA rankings on June 13 to seed them, instead of the positions on the rankings just announced on July 10. The reason is to separate the Qatar and Saudi Arabia teams into two groups. Based on the FIFA rankings on June 13, Qatar is ranked 53rd in the world , while Saudi Arabia is 58th. Meanwhile, according to the recent FIFA rankings in July, Iraq is ranked 58th and Saudi Arabia is 59th; Qatar still holds the 53rd position.

Therefore, if Iraq is seeded No. 1 with Qatar, the Indonesian team can avoid at least one strong opponent in the same group.

Accordingly, the seed groups are determined to include group 1 being Qatar and Saudi Arabia; group 2 being Iraq and UAE; group 3 being Oman and Indonesia. From these 3 seed groups, lots will be drawn into 2 groups, with 3 teams in each group. Thus, Indonesia will only avoid meeting Oman because they are in the same seed group, while the probability of meeting 2 strong teams Qatar or Saudi Arabia and Iraq or UAE is very high.

The 4th qualifying round of the 2026 World Cup in Asia will take place from October 8 to 14. The top teams in each group will win the remaining 2 official tickets from the Asian region to the 2026 World Cup. The two runners-up will play 2 play-off matches on November 13 and 18, with the winning team entering the intercontinental play-off round (6 teams) to compete for 2 play-off tickets in March 2026.

Source: https://thanhnien.vn/vong-loai-thu-4-world-cup-2026-khu-vuc-chau-a-co-hoi-nao-cho-indonesia-185250716214752193.htm