The most dramatic moves in the gold market were made earlier this week, with spot prices starting trading above $2,041 an ounce on Sunday night before falling to $2,016 an ounce by 9 a.m. on Monday.
Gold prices have since largely traded within that range, although the spot market set a weekly high of $2,042.53 an ounce on Wednesday morning and tested support near $2,021 on both Thursday and Friday.
The latest Kitco News weekly gold survey shows that a majority of experts and investors have a positive forecast for gold prices next week.
This week, 12 analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, and Wall Street is mostly bullish or sideways for gold in the near term. Four analysts, or 42 percent, expect higher prices next week, while only one analyst, or 8 percent, predicts lower prices. Six analysts, or half of those surveyed, predict sideways prices next week.
Meanwhile, 165 votes were cast in Kitco’s online poll, with a near-majority of investors remaining bullish. Seventy-seven retail investors, or 47 percent, expect gold to rise next week. Another 37, or 22 percent, predict lower prices. Fifty-one respondents, or 31 percent, are neutral on the precious metal’s near-term outlook.
“Gold has fallen after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell dampened expectations of a near-term rate cut. Now gold may find a base and start to rally again,” said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management.
James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com, has returned to the bullish camp after casting doubt on gold’s short-term potential last week: “So far, the uptrend has held the $2,000/ounce level. Even as the dollar had its biggest two-day rally in a year, gold has held support.”
Stanley believes the next price move will be driven by the US CPI report. “If we see core CPI rise above 4% year-on-year, that could be negative for gold. But I expect CPI to ease slightly and that could provide an opportunity for bulls,” he said.
“I expect gold to rise in the coming days, supported by weak inflation and falling US retail sales. I expect those data to limit US bond yields and the US dollar,” said Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex.
On the other hand, Bob Haberkorn, senior commodities broker at RJO Futures, sees downside risk next week: “If gold falls below $2,000 an ounce, the precious metal could return to $1,950 an ounce and possibly even beyond that.” Bob Haberkorn emphasized that the short-term direction of gold will really depend on inflation data.
Meanwhile, Mark Leibovit - publisher of VR Metals/Resource Letter said he still sees gold prices likely to fall in the near future.
US inflation data will once again take centre stage next week, with the January CPI report due on Tuesday morning, and the first January PPI on Friday, experts say.
Markets will also be looking ahead to weekly jobless claims and U.S. retail sales for January, as well as manufacturing indexes from the Philly and New York Feds, all due out Thursday morning. Then there are housing starts and building permits for January.
Not only world gold, domestic gold also has many motivations to increase in price next week. Although domestic gold in recent sessions has fluctuated with a narrower amplitude than before, however, the price of this metal is expected to increase higher on the occasion of God of Wealth (January 10 of the Lunar calendar).
Along with that, the price difference of gold on God of Wealth day is usually pushed higher than other trading sessions.
As of 12:00 on February 11, DOJI Group listed the SJC gold price at 76.55 million VND/tael for buying; the selling price was 78.85 million VND/tael. Saigon SJC Jewelry Company listed the gold price at 76.7 million VND/tael for buying; the selling price was 78.9 million VND/tael.
World gold price listed on Kitco is at 2,024.4 USD/ounce.
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