As the months-long battle for the stronghold of Bakhmut, in the Donetsk region, continues to rage and drag on, President Volodymyr Zelensky has indicated that Ukraine is preparing for a longer and broader war against Russian forces.
According to Mr. Zelensky, Ukrainians have survived the most difficult winter, and are now experiencing the first days of warmer spring. However, the protection of energy infrastructure is still being strengthened, and Ukrainian defense officials will “do everything to be ready to face any threats next winter.”
Meanwhile, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu made a rare visit to Donetsk, according to a video released by the Russian Defense Ministry on March 5.
According to the ministry, Mr. Shoigu “paid special attention to creating the necessary conditions to ensure the safety of personnel in field conditions.” The top commanders of the “special military operation” in Ukraine informed Mr. Shoigu about the current situation and action plans.
Ukrainian soldiers fire howitzers towards Russian positions in the Donetsk region, March 2023. Photo: EPA
On the ground, urban fighting often favors the defending side, so the Ukrainian military may be “continuing to inflict high casualties” on Russian forces in Bakhmut despite their “tactical withdrawal” from the area, according to a new assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US think tank, published on March 5.
Russian forces have yet to force the Ukrainian army to abandon Bakhmut and are incapable of encircling the city, let alone capturing it in a frontal assault, ISW said.
Russian advances in the stronghold of Donetsk are still accelerating, according to ISW, with some parts of the city under threat, while Ukrainian forces may be setting conditions for a controlled withdrawal from particularly difficult areas.
The Ukrainian General Staff said on March 5 that Kiev forces were holding off attacks from Russian forces, who are still trying to encircle Bakhmut, and repelled “more than 130 enemy attacks” in Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
Ukraine and Russia have been fiercely contesting the city since last summer, whose symbolic importance has surpassed its military significance.
Map assessing the development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in Donbass, as of March 5, 2023: According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian forces continue their efforts to encircle Bakhmut and conduct ground attacks along the front line in Donetsk, while also carrying out attacks along Svatove and Kreminna in Lugansk. Graphics: Al Jazeera
The importance of Bakhmut
If Russian forces take the city, they will advance further, possibly toward Kramatorsk, also in the Donetsk region of Donbass, said Marina Miron, a research fellow at the Centre for Military Ethics at King's College London.
“They would control key roads, cut off supply lines for Ukrainian forces, and make defense much more difficult for Kiev’s military,” Miron said, warning that this would also undermine the morale of Ukrainian soldiers and could cause Western partners to lose confidence in the Ukrainian military’s capabilities.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (right) inspects Russian military positions at an undisclosed location in Ukraine, March 4, 2023. Photo: The Guardian
Ralph Thiele, a retired German colonel who served on the staff of NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, agreed with Miron. “Ukraine, as well as our Western partners, are fundamentally obliged to deliver successes,” Thiele said. “There has to be some ongoing public justification for the enormous amount of assistance given to Ukraine.”
Mr. Thiele also emphasized the psychological importance of defending Bakhmut. “People have to somehow be motivated to stay there. That’s a signal that goes out to the whole of Ukraine—to civilians, as well as soldiers elsewhere,” Mr. Thiele said, adding that the effort both sides are putting into capturing and defending Bakhmut is not really justified.
Mike Martin, a researcher at King's College London, said Russia is persistently trying to capture Bakhmut because it fits into Russian President Vladimir Putin's stated goal of "liberating Donbass".
“If you look at the layout of the roads and the rail network, you will see that there are two larger settlements west of Bakhmut, but still in the Donbass, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. And to take those larger cities, the Russians first need to take Bakhmut,” Martin explained.
An aerial photo shows fierce fighting in the city of Bakhmut, Donetsk region, late February 2023. Photo: WSJ
When should Ukraine strike back?
“Taking Bakhmut does not mean that the Russians will successfully break into the center of the territory, because they will have to fight against the next line of defense,” commented Markus Reisner, a colonel in the Austrian army.
After successful operations near Kharkiv and Kherson, Ukraine decided relatively quickly to launch a third offensive, from Zaporizhzhia towards Melitopol, but that pressure on Ukrainian forces near Bakhmut meant Kiev had to continue redeploying there, Reisner said.
According to Mr. Reisner, the Ukrainian army is currently preparing eight brigades and looking for a suitable place to launch the attack, possibly the area north of Melitopol. If successful, it could cut off Russian forces from the Crimean Peninsula, and those near Zaporizhzhia and Kherson could be cut off from the supply route across the Crimean bridge.
“The Russians will then have very different concerns, namely how to resupply their units in the region, rather than how to continue their offensive in Donbass,” said Mr. Reisner.
Ukrainian soldiers fire from their positions near Zaporizhzhia, March 2023. Photo: EPA
However, Gustav Gressel, a fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations who specializes in Russia and defense policy, believes now is not the right time for a Ukrainian counterattack.
“If you want to launch a counterattack, you have to gather capable people far from the front and the battlefield, and then organize them to attack. That would be very risky at this stage. Even if Ukraine breaks through the Russian defenses and expands its control, the Russians still have strong reserves and a large number of soldiers they can throw into the battle,” Gressel said, explaining that these forces could also be deployed to the rear lines, or used to attack the Ukrainian army from multiple directions at once.
“If we wait a few months until the Russian offensive potential is exhausted and Moscow begins to use up the reserves it intended for the current offensive, Ukrainian forces will have a better chance of expanding their control as soon as they penetrate the Russian front,” Gressel said. “That way, they can achieve more with the same losses, and with the same number of assets . ”
Minh Duc (According to DW, Washington Post, Al Jazeera)
Source
Comment (0)