Stock market perspective in the first week of August: VN-Index is likely to retest the support zone of 1,465 points

The market ended the trading week in the red. Although it fluctuated around the 1,500 point mark in the morning session, strong selling pressure in the afternoon caused the index to shake and lose this psychological threshold. At the end of the session, the index stopped at 1,495 points, down 7.31 points (-0.49%).

Liquidity decreased with matched volume on HoSE reaching 1,378 billion shares, equivalent to a trading value of nearly VND 36,436 billion, lower than the average of the last 20 sessions.

Large-cap stocks continued to differentiate, creating the main impact on the index. Negatively affected stocks: VIC (-1.42%), BID (-1.72%), CTG (-3.49%); Positively supported stocks:FPT (+2.9%), PNJ (+7%), HDB (+2.1%). Some hot stocks were under profit-taking pressure: GEX (-6.37%), SHS (-6.5%), VIX (-3.7%), VGC (-5.2%)

Cash flow is looking for opportunities in stocks that have not increased too much, with medium and small capitalization: Stocks that hit the ceiling: Shipping: HAH, VOS, Electricity: PC1, GEG, Banking: NVB, Construction: FCN, Retail: PNJ

According to Ho Chi Minh City Securities Company (HSC), VN-Index is in a correction phase after reaching a historical peak. Quantitative indicators continue to show weakening cash flow, leading groups are losing momentum. The index is likely to retest the support zone of 1,465 points, and the strong support zone at 1,400 points.

Accordingly, investment strategies with a high proportion of stocks, especially using margin, need to reduce the proportion, especially with stocks that violate the short-term stop loss threshold. With a new disbursement position, it is necessary to observe the reaction at the price level of the support zone, take advantage of the adjustment to optimize the buying point, and limit chasing purchases during the current technical adjustment period.

Mr. Le Duc Huy, Head of Market Strategy Department, Agribank Securities Company (Agriseco), said that the above decline is generally healthy for the medium-term trend of the market, especially after the VN-Index has increased continuously for more than 3 months. However, from a more short-term perspective, the market closed the week's base creating a pair of bearish engulfing candles, signaling that the correction may continue in the coming time. Liquidity showed signs of decreasing towards the end of the week when the VN-Index gradually retreated to the 20-day MA support zone, showing that the active selling pressure on the leading stocks in the previous period has temporarily weakened, but the participating buying force has not been able to regain the upper hand.

Therefore, Agriseco forecasts that next week, the market may still see increased buying pressure at the 20-day MA support zone (equivalent to 1,475-1,485 points), but the increase will not be too significant compared to the possibility of profit-taking selling pressure returning, VN-Index will move in the Sideway-Down direction with increased selling pressure when the next correction signal appears.

With the above market view, Agriseco believes that investors should prioritize more cautious trading at the current stage. First, it is necessary to reduce the margin ratio and reduce the ratio in speculative stocks that have increased rapidly in recent times. Besides, it is still possible to continue holding stocks with positive business prospects, with investment stories in the future to create growth momentum for stock prices.

If choosing to disburse new funds, investors can consider choosing leading industry groups that are still attracting cash flow such as banking, securities and real estate.

For the banking group, promoting credit growth will be the main and consistent driving force for stocks in this group in the coming period.

The securities group will be the focus of the market upgrade story, which will likely take place after the FTSE review in September. At the same time, in the context of the VN-Index continuously increasing points, liquidity also increasing and setting new records, the securities group will benefit from this trend.

For the real estate group , low interest rates and high real estate credit growth will be the driving force supporting this group in the second half of the year. In addition, stocks with positive business prospects, bluechips with foreign room can also be destinations to attract cash flow in the coming time.

Regarding cash flow movements, after the excitement in the banking and securities groups, industrial park stocks are gradually attracting investors' attention again, when the trade tax policy with the US officially took effect from August 1.

Since August 1, 2025, President Donald Trump has issued a written decision on tariffs with many countries. In particular, the tax rate for Vietnam is 20%, unchanged from the previous statement from President Trump. This is a quite competitive tax rate compared to countries in the region, and also competitors in attracting FDI such as Thailand (19%), Malaysia (19%), Indonesia (19%), India (25%). With such a tax rate, Vietnam will still have many competitive advantages in retaining and attracting FDI flows to Vietnam.

According to Mr. Huy, the official announcement of the tax rate will help relieve some of the psychological pressure on cash flow into the Industrial Park Real Estate group. With prices having fallen sharply and not yet recovered significantly, many industrial park real estate stocks are currently priced quite low compared to the VN-Index and many groups of stocks have increased rapidly in recent times. Thereby, this group is likely to attract cash flow when concerns about tariffs temporarily subside. However, with the current tax rate, the export group or industrial parks will still face difficulties when the protectionist trend is taking place globally.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/goc-nhin-ttck-tuan-dau-thang-8-vn-index-co-kha-nang-kiem-dinh-lai-vung-ho-tro-1465-diem-d347582.html