Vietnam Cashews: From Raw Exports to Nut Milk Opportunities in the US

Cashew milk - a "new door" to bring Vietnamese cashews deeper into the high-value food market

In recent years, if you take a look at the “health food” shelves at the supermarket chains that have a great influence on consumer habits in the US, you will see that cashew milk has become a familiar choice. From a product that was only popular among the vegan community or those pursuing an “organic” lifestyle, cashew milk is now competing on par with almond milk or oat milk.

The growth of this market comes from many factors such as: the trend of reducing cow's milk consumption, high rates of lactose intolerance, the need for healthy eating and a wave of sustainable, ethical consumption, especially among young people. Interestingly, behind every box of cashew milk on the shelves of American supermarkets, Vietnam is one of the most important raw material links. For many years, Vietnam has held an overwhelming market share in the import of raw cashews from the US.

Photo caption — Cashew kernel imports from various countries to the US in the first 7 months of the year. Photo: Trademap

Therefore, when the US decided to eliminate import tax on cashews from November 14, the market considered this a rare “golden window”. Not only did it help restore exports in the context of a sharp decline in 2024, this move also opened the door for Vietnamese cashews to penetrate deeper into high-value food segments where profit margins are much more attractive than traditional raw exports.

For decades, Vietnam has been known as the “cashew empire” with an overwhelming market share. But behind the halo lies the reality that the raw export model has reached its limits. Domestic production is gradually decreasing, businesses are heavily dependent on imports from Africa, and prices fluctuate strongly, eroding profit margins.

At that time, the nut milk market, especially cashew milk, grew rapidly and steadily. According to Grand View Research, the cashew milk segment alone reached more than 218 million USD in 2023, with an expected growth rate of 7.3%/year until 2030. Although still in the niche group, this is the fastest growing segment thanks to the trend of vegetarianism, clean eating and green living.

With its superior raw material advantages, Vietnam not only has the opportunity to regain its cashew market share in the US, but can also participate deeply in the global cashew milk production chain. The US tax removal further consolidates this development space, creating a foundation for the cashew industry to transform from a raw export industry to a strategic raw material supply industry for high-value foods.

US market - tax shock, favorable point to rewrite growth cycle

Since 2001, the US has been the world’s largest cashew importer and also the most important market for Vietnam. For many years, Vietnam held over 75% of the market share, at times reaching nearly 90%. This is a rare figure for an agricultural product.

However, 2025 started with a shock when the US maintained high tariffs from August 1. Both Vietnamese businesses and US importers faced difficulties. Vietnam’s cashew exports to the US fell more than 17% in 10 months, with market share falling below 20%, the lowest level in many years.

Therefore, President Donald Trump's decision on November 14 to remove tariffs on more than 200 food products, including some, is considered a "rescue" signal not only for the last months of the year but also for the entire 2025 cycle.

Data from the US International Trade Commission (USITC) shows that US cashew imports often increase sharply from July to December - the time to prepare for the peak season of Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year. The timely tax removal creates a strong push for Vietnamese cashews to quickly recover their market share.

If the US is a traditional market, China is emerging as a “new star”. In the first 10 months of the year, cashew exports to China increased by more than 50%, surpassing the US. China is also the strongest consumer market for the W180 line - the highest-end cashew segment. Geographical advantages and low transportation costs help Vietnamese businesses firmly consolidate this market during the peak Tet season.

International organizations even predict that China could surpass the US to become the world's largest cashew market in the near future, helping Vietnam diversify and expand its growth potential.

Vietnam’s cashew industry is increasingly facing competition from Ivory Coast and Brazil – countries that have invested heavily in deep processing to export high-value products. In this context, the “large-scale raw export” model is no longer enough to create sustainable growth.

Thus, the path of the cashew industry must be to increase the value of products such as: roasted cashews, flavored cashews, healthy snacks, instant products... and especially participate more deeply in the value chain of the global food industry such as cashew milk.

Vietnam has the opportunity to transform itself from a “raw material empire” to a strategic supplier for the high-value food sector. This requires processing, trading and exporting enterprises to focus on investing in R&D, processing technology, quality standardization, traceability and extensive cooperation with international food corporations.

The US tax abolition is only a short-term boost, but the bigger opportunity lies in the shift in global consumption structure towards healthy, green food with clear origins. That will be the destination where Vietnam has a natural advantage. If we take advantage of this "golden drop", the Vietnamese cashew industry can completely enter a new growth cycle from exporting raw materials to high-value, high-priced products and in the future lead the global consumption trend.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/kinh-te/hat-dieu-viet-nam-tu-xuat-khau-tho-den-co-hoi-sua-hat-tai-my-20251120121207227.htm