Previous studies put the chance of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth on December 22, 2032 at 3.1%. However, recent NASA observations have reduced that chance to just 0.004%, and that number could drop further in the coming days.
In a blog post on February 24, NASA said experts have improved their orbital model of 2024 YR4, showing that it will not have a significant impact on Earth in the next century. This means the asteroid will pass by at a safe distance in 2032.
Without colliding with Earth, 2024 YR4 can still threaten the Moon
However, NASA also notes that there is a small chance that the asteroid could collide with the Moon, with a probability of 1.7%, although this number may decrease in the future.
NASA will continue to monitor asteroid 2024 YR4 through observatories funded by the Planetary Defense Coordination Office. In particular, NASA's James Webb Space Telescope will conduct observations of the asteroid next March to gather more information about its size for scientific research.
Discovered in 2024, asteroid 2024 YR4 has the highest probability of impacting Earth (3.1%) in the history of observations by scientists. Measuring between 40 and 90 meters in size, it has been dubbed a “city killer” by NASA because of its potential to cause significant damage at a local scale. NASA said the asteroid provided an opportunity to test planetary defense technologies and notification procedures, including considering the possibility of using the DART mission to deflect the asteroid if a future collision becomes unavoidable.
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