It's unrealistic to expect Russia to run out of missiles.

Ian Williams, a fellow in the International Security Program and Deputy Director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), stated that “it would be unrealistic to expect Russia to run out of missiles.”

Ian Williams' report further notes that Moscow possesses the necessary long-range strike capabilities to inflict significant damage on Ukraine's population, economy, and military despite sanctions and export restrictions.

Russia's missile war and speculation.

Russia has relentlessly launched missile attacks on Ukraine. In the latter half of 2022, Russian missile attacks inflicted serious damage on Ukraine's economy and infrastructure, particularly paralyzing its energy infrastructure.

When Russia began purchasing and deploying Iranian-made Shahed suicide drones to attack targets inside Ukraine, some U.S. officials and Ukrainian officers predicted that the Russian military's missile stockpile was running low.

By the end of 2022, after more than nine months of fighting in Ukraine, the Pentagon announced that Russia was increasingly reliant on outdated artillery and missile ammunition, some manufactured more than four decades prior. At the time, media reports indicated that U.S. officials predicted Russia would run out of ammunition.

For its part, Russia has shifted from firing more advanced and precision-guided ballistic and cruise missiles to Soviet-era munitions, which, while capable of causing significant destruction, lack accuracy. This further reinforces the predictions of Western officials and experts.

As the conflict entered its second year, these predictions became more prevalent within Ukrainian intelligence circles. For example, in January 2023, Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat cited intelligence claiming that Russia's stockpile of modern Iskander ballistic missiles was down to fewer than 100.

At that time, Russia also increased its use of S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft missiles to conduct attacks on various ground targets in Ukraine. This was called a new tactic by Moscow by some experts, aimed at replacing low-precision ballistic missiles.

Some reports based on Ukrainian intelligence in early 2023 claimed that the Russian military would run out of missiles after March. However, to date, Russian missile attacks have continued and have not decreased.

CSIS's answer

The CSIS report emphasizes that, in 2023, Russia regularly attacked military targets across Ukraine with expensive, long-range missiles. The targets of these missile attacks changed over time, as did the intensity and quality of the ammunition used.

In May 2023, weapons experts recovered fragments of newly manufactured Russian cruise missiles launched into Ukraine, which they had previously claimed indicated that Russia's arsenal was depleted and could only last for a few months after the conflict broke out.

Colin Kahl, Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, and several other U.S. officials have previously predicted that building up Russian stockpiles would be “much more difficult” due to sanctions, particularly regarding the purchase of microchips for precision-guided missiles.

However, a recent CSIS report argues that export restrictions and sanctions have had no effect on Russian missile production. “Sanctions and export controls can only limit the quantity and quality of offensive weapons that Russia can acquire.”

Regarding speculation about Russia's dwindling missile reserves, reports suggest that Russia may have used up its planned supply of long-range missiles for its "special military operation." Many experts also believe that the missiles currently in use were withdrawn from other battlefields.

The report notes that Russian missile attacks have shifted from advanced missile systems such as cruise missiles to less effective, but less expensive, "lower-level" systems such as the Shahed-136 drone.

The report also indicated that, despite import controls on critical microelectronic components, Russia continues to produce missiles by purchasing Western-made components through third parties. This was confirmed by Ukrainian forces, who recovered and examined components from Russian missiles that crashed inside Ukrainian territory.

The Russian Kh-59MK2 air-to-ground missile.

CSIS also noted that sanctions and export controls can only make missile production more difficult and expensive, limiting the number of missiles Russia can produce, but cannot force Russia to completely stop missile production.

Analyzing recent Russian missile attacks, the report states that, unlike Russian targets last year, Russian missile and drone operations since May 2023 have had a wider range and are more difficult to predict.

Some experts also suggest that Russia's current objectives are primarily to keep Ukraine off balance in its counteroffensive operations in the south and force Ukraine to redirect its air defense capabilities toward protecting its cities.

The report stated: “Given Ukraine’s limited supply of air defense systems, a full-scale and unpredictable Russian missile offensive would force Ukraine to trade off between protecting cities and critical infrastructure and ensuring air defense for its frontline troops.”

However, the report emphasizes that proactive air defense would be the only way to counter Russian missile attacks, and this would require ongoing support and reinforcement from Ukraine's allies.

Le Hung (Source: Eurasian Times)

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