Although there were only two "spring opening" sessions, the Vietnamese stock market was really excited when the VN-Index reached its highest level in the past 5 months, surpassing the 1,200 point mark.
Large-cap stocks continued to be the focus when supporting the general market such as VIC (+3.7%), GVR (+5.1%), VNM (+3.6%) and TCB (+3.2%). On the contrary, some banking stocks such as BID (-0.8%), VCB (-0.4%) and ACB (-1.4%) corrected after the recent price increase, putting pressure on the general index.
Last week, trading value on the three exchanges increased sharply thanks to positive sentiment after Tet. The average total trading volume reached VND20,637 billion/session, up 20% compared to the previous week.
However, foreign investors were net sellers throughout the first two sessions of the year, with a total value of VND768 billion on all three exchanges. Accordingly, foreign investors net sold VND726 billion on HoSE and VND62 billion on HNX, while net buying slightly VND20 billion on UPCoM.
Commenting on the trading developments of the new week, Mr. Bui Van Huy - Director of Ho Chi Minh City Branch of DSC Securities Company and Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh - Head of Macro and Market Strategy Department of VNDIRECT Securities Company both said that there is no factor capable of "reversing" the current upward trend of the market.
Nguoi Dua Tin (NDT): What is your assessment of the trading performance last week?
Mr. Bui Van Huy : Regarding the net selling of foreign investors in the sessions after Tet, I believe that this is a profit-taking move formed after the market continued to increase strongly. The market continues to increase to new levels and foreign investors continue to take profit, which is not too worrying, but we need to pay more attention to the developments in the inter-market as well as the exchange rate.
In the scenario where the market continues to rise and passes the first wave of the year, the probability of adjustment will increase, but in the short term, the current cash flow is still positive and exciting, and investors still have trading opportunities.
Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh: As expected, investors' cash flow soon returned to the stock market after the Tet holiday, helping the VN-Index break through the psychological threshold of 1,200 points.
Market breadth was also more positive as many industry groups took turns gaining points and keeping the market pace, instead of focusing only on the banking group like the period before the holiday.
VN-Index performance on February 15-16 (Source: FireAnt).
Investor: In your opinion, how will trading develop next week and what information should investors pay attention to next week?
Mr. Bui Van Huy : Current positive factors include expectations of a loose policy with our country's interest rates at very low levels, improved economic recovery in the new year, expectations of the upgrading process...
Regarding potential negative factors, the intermarket has had negative fluctuations again after the information that the US CPI in January increased higher than analysts' forecasts, reducing expectations about the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates soon and the number of interest rate cuts in 2024. Some domestic problems are still latent such as bad debt as well as the recovery of the real estate market.
Synthesizing the above factors, it can be seen that in the short term, positive factors still dominate and there is no strong enough factor to make the market "reverse" strongly in the short term.
It should be noted that VN-Index is currently in an overbought state, so profit-taking and short-term corrections may appear at any time. However, there is not a high probability of a deep correction and the main trend is still upward.
Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh: Positive information supporting the domestic macro economy can be listed as data on purchasing managers' index (PMI), import-export, FDI in January, as well as the picture of business results in the fourth quarter of 2023 of listed enterprises, which has clearly recovered.
This reinforces market sentiment towards a brighter 2024 shareholder meeting season and Q1/2024 earnings season.
With the above factors, I think there is no sign that can "reverse" the current upward trend of the market.
Investor: So, in your opinion, how should investors act next week?
Mr. Bui Van Huy : Investors can consider groups of stocks that have not increased in price; make transactions when there is new cash flow and buying points appear.
Avoid chasing stocks that have already risen a lot. The fundamental story of each industry group at the moment is not as important as the story of cash flow.
Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh: Investors can continue to hold stocks as market indicators still support a continued uptrend.
The VN-Index may head towards the old peak around 1,240 points (+/- 10 points). This is a strong resistance zone and is strong enough to challenge the market's uptrend .
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