Positive global growth forecast, Russia's Mir payment card to be used in Iran soon, BRICS brings many benefits to Indonesia, US electric vehicle sales hit record high in China... are outstanding world economic news.
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| 2025 will be the year to resolve financial and monetary issues in Russia-Iran relations. (Source: Shutterstock) |
World economy
Global Economic Forecast 2025
In its report on the world economy published on January 6, Qatar National Bank (QNB) assessed that global economic growth will accelerate in 2025 thanks to the push from monetary easing policies, the positive recovery of the US economy as well as the recovery of the European and Chinese economies, and said that Southeast Asian economies will benefit from these positive spillover effects.
QNB forecasts global economic growth of 3.2% in 2025, up from Bloomberg 's forecast of 3.1%. Major economies will see positive growth, driven by controlled inflation, easing financial constraints and policy adjustments by central banks. QNB believes emerging markets, particularly those in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), will benefit from these improvements.
QNB forecasts the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2025, while the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates by 150 basis points. This will support investment and consumption growth, the QNB report asserts, as credit becomes cheaper, new investment opportunities become more attractive and opportunity costs fall.
US economy
* United Airlines (USA) recently announced that it will start using Wi-Fi service provided by SpaceX's Starlink satellites on domestic flights next spring, earlier than expected. The Wi-Fi service will be applied free of charge to the airline's loyal customers, instead of all passengers as originally planned. The first flight with this service will be on an Embraer SA E175 jet, while the service deployment on passenger aircraft will begin before the end of 2025.
* Tesla, the US electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer, has just announced that its car sales in China increased by 8.8% to 657,000 vehicles in 2024, a record high.
According to data from Tesla China, Tesla's vehicle sales in the world's largest auto market in December 2024 also increased by 12.8% compared to the previous month to a record high of 83,000 vehicles .
Sales figures also show that in 2024 Tesla delivered 36.7% of its cars to customers in China, its second-largest market.
Chinese Economy
* China plans to raise funds to support large-scale consumer goods and equipment upgrade programs in 2025 by selling special ultra-long-term treasury bonds , senior Chinese officials said on January 8.
The specific figures are expected to be announced at the Two Sessions meeting in March. Officials noted that under the two programs, China will expand the range of goods eligible for government subsidies by 2025.
* The latest statistics released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange of China on January 7 showed that as of the end of December 2024, China's foreign exchange reserves were 3,202.4 billion USD, down 63.5 billion USD compared to the end of November, a corresponding decrease of 1.94%. Compared to the same period in 2023, the size of foreign exchange reserves at the end of 2024 decreased by 35.6 billion USD .
The decline in the size of foreign exchange reserves was mainly influenced by factors such as expectations about monetary policies of major economies and macroeconomic data, the increase in the US dollar index and the general decrease in global financial asset prices.
European Economy
* Eurozone inflation rose in December, reinforcing the European Central Bank's (ECB) plan to gradually cut interest rates but not derailing it entirely.
Eurozone consumer prices rose 2.4% in December 2024 from a year earlier, up from 2.2% in November 2024 and in line with the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The increase was largely driven by rising energy costs, the first since July 2024, according to Eurostat, the European Union's statistics agency.
* Europe's gas reserves are falling at their fastest pace in five years due to the impact of prolonged cold weather.
According to the latest figures, gas reserves in Europe are currently at only 70% of capacity, down sharply from 86% in the same period in 2024. Although a shortage has not occurred, replenishing reserves after winter is expected to be more difficult, potentially causing short-term gas price fluctuations.
* A recent survey by Deutsche Bank found that 98% of respondents believe that Germany's "debt brake" policy needs reform .
The “debt brake” policy limits Germany’s structural budget deficit to 0.35% of GDP under normal conditions. In the current context, many politicians from different factions have questioned the sustainability of this policy, arguing that it restricts public spending needed to address economic difficulties.
* The second stage of integration between the Russian and Iranian payment systems, in which Russia's Mir payment cards will be able to be used on the territory of Iran to pay for goods and services, is expected to be completed by June 30, 2025, Ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Iran to Moscow Kazem Jalali said on January 8.
According to the diplomat, “2025 will be the year of resolving financial and monetary issues in relations between Tehran and Moscow.” He noted that negotiations between the central banks of the two countries are progressing successfully.
* On January 5, Cuban Ambassador to Russia Julio Antonio Garmendía said Moscow will provide Havana with a $60 million credit line to purchase fuel.
The respective agreements have been signed and the two countries are expected to formally sign the contract in the coming days to disburse the above-mentioned credit facility.
Along with the $60 million credit, Russia also provided Cuba with $2 million in aid to purchase equipment needed to restore the country's power system, which has been severely affected by fuel shortages and deteriorating infrastructure.
Japanese and Korean Economy
* Japan's labor productivity in 2023 is $56.8/hour, ranking 29th among 38 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), according to a country-by-country comparison of productivity during the year published by the Japan Productivity Center (JPC).
This is the first time in 20 years that Japan has moved up the rankings after a long downward trend, with the country reaching an all-time low of 31st in 2022. Labor productivity is an indicator of how much goods or services a worker has produced in a given period of time.
* The Korean Personal Information Protection Commission said on January 7 that it has conducted an investigation to clarify whether the process of collecting audio data from the Siri virtual assistant integrated on Apple (US) devices violates the Korean Personal Information Protection Law.
A commission official said a formal investigation would be launched if any violations were found. The decision came after Apple offered a large settlement in a class-action lawsuit over the leak of personal information of Siri users in the US.
* In 2024, the number of foreigners buying real estate in Korea continued to increase and reached the highest level in the past 5 years.
Statistics on ownership transfer registration at the Court released on January 8 showed that the number of foreigners who applied for ownership transfer registration after purchasing real estate (including complex buildings, land, and private houses) in Korea in 2024 totaled 17,000, up 11.9% from 2023.
Overall, the proportion of foreign real estate ownership accounted for 1.1% of total real estate purchases in Korea in 2024, the highest since 2019 (1.6%).
ASEAN Economy and Emerging Economies
* As a BRICS member, Indonesia can gain potential benefits, especially in reducing the trade deficit in the oil and gas sector.
Economist and public policy expert at the National Development University (UPN) Jakarta, Achmad Nur Hidayat, said that Indonesia's official membership in BRICS could open up opportunities to access Russian crude oil at cheaper prices.
The main advantage of trading oil with Russia, according to Mr. Achmad, is the potential for cheaper prices compared to international market prices. The Western embargo on Russian oil has encouraged the country to supply its oil to non-Western markets at a significant discount.
* Malaysia's Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation Chang Lih Kang said that according to government analysis, more than 30% of jobs in the country will be affected by artificial intelligence (AI) in the next 10 years, and key sectors such as manufacturing, services and information technology are expected to undergo significant transformation.
Statistics show that more than 600,000 workers need to be reskilled in the next three to five years to keep up with the increasingly competitive job market. He noted that by 2030, Malaysia is expected to need an additional 500,000 skilled workers to meet the demands of the technology and engineering sectors. These figures highlight the urgent need to develop an effective training and certification ecosystem.
* On January 3, Singapore's Energy Market Authority (EMA) announced the award of a contract to PacificLight Power to build a hydrogen-compatible natural gas-fired power plant on Jurong Island, expected to begin operations in 2029. PacificLight Power said the project will be the largest and most efficient combined-cycle gas turbine facility in Singapore.
PacificLight Power says the plant will have a capacity of at least 600 megawatts, enough to power about 864,000 four-room homes for a year. When it starts operating, it will be able to burn at least 30 percent hydrogen—a cleaner fuel—with the remainder burning natural gas to generate electricity. In the future, the plant will be able to burn 100 percent hydrogen as the power sector moves toward net-zero carbon emissions.
Singapore plans to build at least nine hydrogen-powered power plants by 2030. PacificLight says its newly announced plant will be the largest of these. It will also be the first to be paired with a large-scale battery energy storage system that stores electricity during off-peak times.
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