'US presidential election prophet' reveals Kamala Harris's most precarious point

Historian Allan Lichtman, famous for his “Keys to the White House” US presidential election prediction system, has suggested that the war in Ukraine could prove to be a weakness for the Democratic Party as it seeks re-election with candidate Kamala Harris.

*Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign event in Green Bay, Wisconsin, on October 17. Historian Allan Lichtman said the war in Ukraine could be a weakness for Harris and the Democratic Party. Photo: AFP.*

Based on that model, Lichtman has officially predicted that Harris will win, although the system is not without its critics. "The most unstable key is the key to success in foreign policy," Lichtman said in a YouTube livestream interview on October 16, in response to a question about which keys Democrats could be at risk of losing. "I gave that key to the administration because it was President Joe Biden ... who assembled the Western coalition that stopped Russian President Putin from invading Ukraine and going after our NATO allies, which was a serious threat to the national security of the United States." While he said US support had kept Ukraine "alive" for more than two and a half years, even allowing them to invade neighboring Russia, he warned that "war is a fluid thing." "And I think there could be a catastrophe in Ukraine," the American University professor said. "It's secondary to other wars because war is uncertain," Lichtman clarified in an email to Newsweek on October 18. "However, I'm now convinced that it won't reverse. Even so, a reversal wouldn't change the prediction." Lichtman is known as the "Notradamus of US elections" for his impressive track record of predicting the outcome of presidential races over the past 40 years using his "Keys to the White House" prediction model. He was one of the few experts to correctly predict the 2016 election for former President Donald Trump and predicted a victory for President Joe Biden in 2020. He now predicts that Harris will be the next president of the United States. The 13 keys, as outlined by a historian in a 2012 article for the journal Social Education, are: - Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after previous midterm elections. - No primaries: There are no serious votes for the incumbent party's nomination. - Incumbents seeking reelection: The incumbent party's candidate is the incumbent president. - No third parties: There are no significant third-party or independent campaigns. - Strong economy in the short term: The economy does not decline during the campaign. - Strong economy in the long term: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds the average growth during the previous two terms. - Major policy changes: The incumbent administration makes major changes in national policy. - No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. - No scandals: The incumbent government is not affected by major scandals. - No foreign or military failures: The incumbent government does not suffer any major failures in foreign or military affairs. T- major foreign or military successes: The incumbent government achieves major successes in foreign or military affairs. - Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party's candidate is charismatic or a national hero. - Uncharismatic opponent: The rival party's candidate is uncharismatic or a national hero.

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