Analysis and forecast of Japanese Yen price this week 12/5

The USD/JPY pair fell to 145.00 after failing to sustain gains to a near one-month high of 146.20, largely due to a sharp weakening of the US dollar as investors began to doubt the effectiveness of the recent trade deal between the US and the UK.

Meanwhile, financial markets are awaiting the crucial trade talks between the US and China. The US dollar index (DXY) fell to 100.3 after peaking at 100.86, indicating that market sentiment is turning cautious.

The outlook for the US economy is mixed, with some Federal Reserve officials concerned that higher tariffs could disrupt supply chains, raise inflation and slow economic growth.

However, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecasting model still shows second-quarter GDP growth expectations at 2.30%, reflecting controlled optimism. However, uncertainties from trade tensions remain a major risk factor for the US economy.

In contrast, Japan has just recorded positive signals from consumer data. Household spending in March increased sharply by 2.10% compared to the same period last year, far exceeding the forecast of only 0.20% and reversing the downward trend of the previous month.

This is a sign of a good recovery in domestic consumption, which could help the Bank of Japan reduce pressure to intervene in the currency market.

Technical Forecast for Japanese Yen Rate This Week

Technically, the USD/JPY pair is in a bearish trend. The price is currently below important moving averages such as the 50-day EMA (146.16), 50-day SMA (146.31), 100-day SMA (150.46), and 200-day SMA (149.57), suggesting that selling pressure remains dominant.

While the 20-day SMA at 143.17 is acting as support, momentum indicators remain mixed. The RSI is neutral at 52.54, while the MACD is flashing a mild buy signal.

On the technical front, the immediate support lies in the 144.82–144.49 zone. If the price breaks below this level, the downside momentum could continue. Conversely, to reverse and return to the uptrend, USD/JPY needs to overcome the resistance zone around 146.30.

Source: https://baonghean.vn/phan-tich-du-bao-gia-yen-nhat-tuan-nay-12-5-18-5-10297063.html