The national fertility rate is trending down below the replacement level with the total fertility rate in 2023 being 1.96 children per woman. This is the lowest decline ever and is forecast to continue to decline.
Mr. Le Thanh Dung - Director of the Department of Population ( Ministry of Health ) said that besides the advantages and opportunities that the achievements in reducing birth rates in recent times have brought, Vietnam is facing new challenges: Maintaining a stable replacement birth rate nationwide is not really sustainable, the birth rate varies significantly between regions and subjects, and there is a trend of low birth rates.
The trend of fertility is falling sharply.
Analyzing the current population work, the Director of the Department of Population said that in recent times, Vietnam's population work has achieved encouraging results, especially in successfully controlling the rapid population growth rate, making positive contributions to the country's socio -economic development and construction. Vietnam officially reached the replacement fertility level in 2006 when the total fertility rate (TFR) = 2.09 children/woman and has been very successful in maintaining the fertility level around the replacement fertility level throughout the past time.
This result contributes to promoting a positive shift in population structure, Vietnam entered the golden population period since 2007, creating opportunities for the economy to break through and develop rapidly. Population quality has been improved in many aspects. Population is distributed more reasonably, associated with the process of urbanization, industrialization and the requirements of socio-economic development, ensuring national defense and security.
However, a worrying thing now is that the national fertility rate is trending down below the replacement level, the total fertility rate in 2023 is 1.96 children/woman - the lowest level ever and is forecast to continue to decrease in the following years.
Notably, the trend of low and very low fertility is concentrated in some urban areas with developed socio-economic conditions. According to socio-economic regions, currently 2/6 regions, namely the Southeast and the Mekong Delta, have low fertility rates below the replacement level.
According to the General Statistics Office in 2023, 27/63 provinces and cities have a birth rate of less than 2.1 children/woman, with a population of more than 53 million people, accounting for 53.7% of the country's population. This shows an increasing trend in provinces with low birth rates and larger populations, most of which are located in the key economic regions of the South, with high urbanization and rapid economic growth.
Director Le Thanh Dung emphasized that in the context of continued economic growth, increasingly rapid urbanization, and increasingly deep and wide international integration, the trend of low birth rates will be further consolidated and spread. If the birth rate continues to decrease and persist, it will directly and deeply impact the population size and structure and leave many consequences such as labor shortage, rapid population aging and population decline, etc., greatly affecting the sustainable development of the country.
“Consider prioritizing effective investment in people and the economy”
Mr. Matt Jackson - Chief Representative of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) in Vietnam said that currently, many countries in the world, including Vietnam, are witnessing a trend of declining fertility rates. According to a recent report by UNFPA, two-thirds of the world's population now lives in countries with fertility rates below replacement level. This is not a temporary phenomenon but a new reality for more and more countries.
“Since the 1970s, a number of countries have adopted pro-natalist policies to increase or maintain replacement fertility, for example by using financial incentives. However, we know that the use of coercive measures in reproduction is not effective in changing fertility levels – this has been proven,” Matt Jackson stressed.
According to the UNFPA Representative, changes in fertility are largely influenced by reproductive choices, which are in turn influenced by socio-economic factors such as gender roles, the cost of living, employment opportunities, childcare costs, as well as the burden of unpaid work that falls mainly on women.
Addressing population issues therefore requires going beyond numbers, with countries considering prioritizing effective investments in people and economies, as well as building more inclusive societies. This means prioritizing gender equality, protecting rights, improving health care, expanding educational opportunities, and improving family support policies to ensure that individuals can exercise their reproductive rights without facing socio-economic barriers.
Referring to solutions to maintain the replacement fertility rate nationwide, Director of the Department of Population Le Thanh Dung said that the Party and State of Vietnam always pay attention to population work and have adjusted policies to suit the context and actual situation. The Department of Population will refer to the contents of the Overall Population Policy Framework, ensuring the replacement fertility rate is suitable for regions, areas, population groups and population quantity and quality, focusing on the policy framework to maintain the replacement fertility rate in Vietnam, consulting domestic and international experts and scientists to have appropriate and feasible proposals in the coming time./.
Source: https://www.vietnamplus.vn/quyet-liet-tim-giai-phap-duy-tri-muc-sinh-thay-the-tren-ca-nuoc-post1003043.vnp
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