Europe's largest 'super volcano' heading towards a catastrophic eruption?

Photo caption — Scientists at Italy's National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology say the Campi Flegrei volcano in southern Italy is at risk of erupting, similar to the eruption at Mauna Loa, Hawaii (pictured). Source: EPA-EPE

A "supervolcano" in Italy, whose peak is home to half a million people, is about to erupt for the first time since 1538, according to a study by the Italian Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology in collaboration with University College London (UK). Scientists warn that such an event could have catastrophic consequences.

The study used a volcanic fracturing model to explain the earthquake and uplift activity in the area. There have been tens of thousands of earthquakes around the Campi Flegrei volcano (near Naples), and the town of Pozzuoli, which sits atop Campi Flegrei, has been uplifted by about 4 metres as a result of the seismic activity. The earthquakes and uplift have stretched parts of the volcano “close to the breaking point”, according to the study, and the ground appears to be cracking, rather than bending. The researchers point out that the weakening of the crust around Campi Flegrei is “making an eruption more likely”.

Campi Flegrei means “burning field”. The volcano has been “slowly” active for more than 70 years, with eruptions lasting up to two years occurring in the 1950s, 1970s and 1980s. In the past 10 years, another period of unrest has occurred, although it is said to be less dramatic than previous ones.

The study concluded that while Campi Flegrei may be close to “rupturing”, there is no guarantee that this will actually lead to an eruption. “Our new research confirms that Campi Flegrei is moving closer to rupturing. However, this does not mean that an eruption is guaranteed,” said Professor Christopher Kilburn, an earth sciences researcher at University College London and lead author of the study.

“The fault can open a crack through the crust, but magma still needs to be pushed up into the right place for an eruption to occur,” the professor added.

The findings were confirmed by Dr Nicola Alessandro Pino of the Vesuvius Observatory, who reported monitoring results “showing that parts of the volcano are becoming weaker”.

“This means it could rupture even though the stresses pulling the crust apart are less than during the last crisis 40 years ago,” said Mr Pino.

About half a million Italians live in the depression that forms the summit of the supervolcano, and another 1.5 million are thought to live within the radius of the potential explosion. Professor Kilburn said the study, described as “the first of its kind to predict a rupture at an active volcano”, marked “a step change in our goal to improve the forecasting of volcanic eruptions worldwide .”

“This is the first time we have applied our model, based on the physics of how rock fractures, in real time to any volcano,” he explains.

“We first used the model in 2017 and since then Campi Flegrei has been behaving as we predicted, with an increasing number of small earthquakes indicating pressure from below,” the Italian scientist noted.

Scientists will now have to adjust their procedures to estimate the probability of new routes opening up for magma or gas to reach the surface, according to Professor Kilburn.

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