Invest cautiously in gold, real estate is booming.

TPO - According to experts, investing in gold requires the utmost caution because it is affected not only by market factors but also strongly by policy factors. In addition, real estate in urban and industrial areas are the two best-performing sectors since the beginning of the year.

Growth optimism

Citi Bank's mid-year report on Vietnam's economic outlook, recently released, shows that Vietnam's GDP growth in the second quarter increased by 6.93% year-on-year, confirming the economy's sustainable recovery. Strong growth in manufacturing and foreign direct investment (FDI), coupled with a robust 17% year-on-year increase in exports, were the main drivers behind this impressive second-quarter growth.

Experts believe that many economic indicators will continue to recover even better in the remaining months of the year.

Helmi Arman, Chief Economist for Vietnam at Citi Bank, said growth was driven by continued acceleration in the manufacturing sector and a recovery in export-oriented industries. Citi predicted that cost pressures in the industrial sector would normalize this year, with inflation likely to remain at 3.5-4%. Although food price inflation in June was quite high, impacting the overall index, Citi's economists do not believe the 4.5% inflation target will be breached.

“There may be adjustments to domestic electricity prices, but weaker-than-expected global growth could lead to lower oil prices in the second half of this year and in 2025. This would contribute to lower transportation costs. In addition, falling rice prices in neighboring countries could reduce demand for Vietnamese rice exports, leading to lower domestic food price inflation,” said Helmi Arman, adding that Citi has raised its GDP growth forecast for Vietnam this year from 6% to 6.4%.

The Vietnam Economic Report for the first six months of 2024 and the outlook for the whole year, published a few days ago by CIEM, also presents two growth scenarios for the last six months of the year as well as the whole year, with positive assessments and forecasts of GDP growth in both scenarios being higher than the target growth rate in Government Resolution 01. If the recovery momentum continues in the last quarters of the year, GDP growth for the whole year could achieve the target of 6-6.5%.

Which investment channel should I choose?

Speaking to Tien Phong newspaper , Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu , Director of the Global Institute for Research and Development of Financial and Real Estate Markets, said that the results achieved in the first half of the year are creating a positive outlook for the Vietnamese economy in the second half of the year. With the positive economic indicators in the first six months, it can be expected that macroeconomic stability will continue, major balances will be ensured, and the confidence of businesses and the people will be strengthened.

Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu - Director of the Global Institute for Research and Development of Financial and Real Estate Markets

According to Mr. Hieu's assessment, the stock market will be more stable and perform better in the second half of the year compared to the first half, as it serves as a barometer of the economy. If the economy recovers strongly in the last six months of the year, the stock market will reflect that strong recovery. At that time, stocks related to industrial parks, renewable energy, transportation, and especially the banking sector will be more sustainable and attractive compared to other stocks.

Mr. Hieu also stated that the slow increase in bank deposits during the first six months of the year, coupled with the continued decline in deposit interest rates, has made other investment channels such as gold and stocks more attractive. However, investing in gold should be approached with the utmost caution, as it is affected not only by market factors but also by strong policy influences. Furthermore, real estate in urban and industrial areas has been the best-performing sector since the beginning of the year. It is predicted that these developing sectors will continue to demonstrate their potential in the last six months of the year.

"With positive indicators, stock market investment has the best potential for growth. Next is real estate investment, but only in a few specific sectors. Real estate and housing in major cities, although expensive, still have very high demand, so this remains a highly effective investment channel," Mr. Hieu commented.

At the "Finding Investment Opportunities in the Second Half of the Year" seminar recently organized by the Investment Newspaper, Mr. Vo Hong Thang - Investment Director of DKRA Group - stated that the laws on real estate business, land, and real estate investment, which will officially take effect from August, will make it difficult to see a sudden surge in prices and supply in the market across all segments in the short term. However, in the medium and long term, these laws will help make the market more transparent, protect investors, and promote more sustainable market development. With a newly passed law, it takes approximately 6-12 months to implement.

According to Mr. Thang, given the many uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment, those using financial leverage must exercise extreme caution. Investors should note that some segments, such as resort real estate, have yet to show signs of recovery. In the context of an unpredictable market, the affordable apartment segment will continue its recovery and lead the market in the last six months of the year.

Pham Tuyen

Source: https://tienphong.vn/6-thang-cuoi-nam-than-trong-dau-tu-vang-bat-dong-san-khoi-sac-post1658333.tpo