Be cautious in investing in gold, real estate is booming

TPO - According to experts, gold investment should be the most cautious because it is not only affected by market factors but also strongly affected by policy factors. Along with that, real estate in urban and industrial areas are the two areas with the best development since the beginning of the year.

Growth optimism

The mid-year report on Vietnam's economic outlook recently released by Citi Bank shows that Vietnam's GDP growth in the second quarter increased by 6.93% compared to the same period last year, affirming the sustainable recovery of the economy. Strong growth in production and foreign direct investment (FDI) attraction along with a strong increase in exports at 17% compared to the same period last year are the main drivers of the impressive growth in the second quarter.

Experts believe that many economic indicators in the last months of the year will continue to recover even better.

Helmi Arman, Citi Bank’s chief economist for Vietnam, said growth was driven by continued acceleration in the manufacturing sector and a recovery in export-oriented industries. Citi has predicted that cost pressures in the industrial sector will normalize this year, with inflation likely to remain at 3.5-4%. Although food price inflation in June was quite high, affecting the overall index, Citi economists do not believe that the inflation target of 4.5% will be breached.

“There may be adjustments in domestic electricity prices, but weaker-than-expected global growth could lead to a possible fall in oil prices in the second half of this year and in 2025. This would contribute to lower transportation costs. In addition, lower rice prices in neighboring countries could reduce Vietnam’s demand for rice exports, leading to lower domestic food price inflation,” said Helmi Arman, adding that Citi has raised its GDP growth forecast for Vietnam this year from 6% to 6.4%.

The Vietnam Economic Report for the first 6 months of the year and the outlook for the whole year 2024 published by CIEM a few days ago also presented 2 growth scenarios for the last 6 months of the year as well as the whole year, with positive comments with GDP growth forecasts in both scenarios being higher than the target growth rate in Resolution 01 of the Government . If the recovery momentum continues to be maintained in the last quarters of the year, the whole year's GDP growth can reach the target of 6-6.5%.

Which channel to invest?

Sharing with PV Tien Phong , Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu - Director of the Institute for Research and Development of Global Financial and Real Estate Markets - said that the results achieved in the first half of the year are creating positive development for the Vietnamese economy in the second half of the year. With positive indicators of the economy in the first 6 months of the year, it is expected that the macro economy will continue to maintain stability, major balances will be ensured, and the confidence of businesses and people will be strengthened.

Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu - Director of the Institute for Research and Development of Global Financial and Real Estate Markets

According to Mr. Hieu, in the second half of the year, the stock market will be more stable and better than the first half of the year because this is a barometer of the economy. If the economy recovers strongly in the last 6 months of the year, the stock market will reflect that strong recovery. At that time, stocks related to industrial parks, renewable energy, transportation and especially the banking sector will be more sustainable and attractive than other stocks.

Mr. Hieu also said that the slow increase in bank deposits in the first 6 months of the year with continued reduction in interest rates has also made other investment channels such as gold and stocks more attractive. However, gold investment should be the most cautious because it is not only affected by market factors but also strongly affected by policy factors. Along with that, real estate in urban and industrial areas are the two best developing areas since the beginning of the year. It is forecasted that these developing types will continue to promote their potential well in the last 6 months of the year.

“With positive indicators, stock investment has the best potential for development. Next is real estate investment, but only in a few specific areas. Real estate and housing in big cities, although expensive, are still in high demand, so this is still a highly effective investment channel,” Mr. Hieu commented.

At the seminar “Finding investment opportunities in the second half of the year” recently organized by Dau Tu Newspaper, Mr. Vo Hong Thang - Investment Director of DKRA Group Company - said that the laws on real estate business, land and real estate investment will officially take effect from August, in the short term it is very difficult to have a sudden growth in price as well as supply in the market in all segments. However, in the medium and long term, these laws will help the market become more transparent, protect investors, and help the market develop more sustainably. With a new set of laws passed, it will take about 6-12 months to apply them in life.

According to Mr. Thang, in a time when the macro economy still has many variables, those who use financial leverage must be really cautious. Investors should note that some other segments such as resort real estate have not yet shown signs of recovery. In a context where the market is still unpredictable, the affordable apartment segment will still maintain its recovery momentum and lead the market in the last 6 months of the year.

Pham Tuyen

Source: https://tienphong.vn/6-thang-cuoi-nam-than-trong-dau-tu-vang-bat-dong-san-khoi-sac-post1658333.tpo