There is no denying that prolonged power outages reduce the quality of life, cause economic shocks and even trigger humanitarian crises. Solving the problem of power shortages will remain a “problem” for each region, country and people.  

General situation

The latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and other organizations says that the world is witnessing a “deceleration in the global electrification problem”. Accordingly, about 675 million people worldwide are without electricity, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa, a decrease of half in the past decade. Despite efforts and some progress, that is still a very high number. However, let’s leave the story of narrowing the energy access gap aside and focus on the problem of unstable electricity supply and rolling blackouts in some countries.

People in Liaoning province, China have to use cell phone flashlights amid rotating power outages. Photo: AP

China's economy is going through a difficult time with consecutive challenges, the most recent of which is the 2021 power shortage crisis. Since the end of September of that year, rolling power cuts in China have spread to half the country. Not only have many factories had to cut production, but people's lives have also been affected, even threatening to slow down the recovery of the billion-people national economy and put pressure on the global supply chain.

The cause of this crisis is primarily due to the sudden increase in electricity consumption in China, after the country controlled the epidemic and quickly restored production. However, investment in the fossil fuel sector for electricity production has decreased. On the other hand, China's energy crisis is partly due to the country's drastic measures to cut emissions in an effort to green the economy. This is not the first time China has had to save electricity on a large scale. Since 2000, the country has experienced at least three power shortage crises.

In particular, major shopping malls in Chongqing city can only operate between 16 and 21 hours. Neighboring Sichuan province also ordered extended industrial power cuts. In Jiangsu province, most steel mills have closed and some cities have turned off streetlights. In nearby Zhejiang province, about 160 power-intensive companies, including textile factories, have also been closed. Meanwhile, in Liaoning province, located in northern China, 14 cities have been ordered to cut off power.

The shutdown of major Chinese petrochemical corporations due to power shortages has caused the price of basic polymers (chemicals widely used in modern technology) to increase by 10%. In particular, Yunnan, which is a province with large hydropower resources in China (accounting for 19% of the country's total capacity), has so far experienced three large-scale power outages after two power outages in September 2022, mainly due to a lack of local water supply. Currently, there is no timetable for power outages. In order to ensure the safety of power supply and to arrange reasonable and orderly power consumption, the province has proposed strict control measures, in order: "Safety as the first premise, stagger peaks, avoid peaks, then limit and finally cut off power".

Night scene in Mumbai, India on June 24, 2020. Photo: VNA

Another billion-people country, India, is also not immune to the power outage trend amid record heat and a surge in electricity demand during the summer. Last year, blackouts and rolling blackouts spread across more than half of India's states. The country's coal-fired power system could be further strained as recent record-high electricity demand continues. Even after the 46-degree heatwave ends, Indian households and businesses continue to face power outages as coal stocks at factories and fuel prices have plummeted since the conflict in Ukraine broke out. Recently, many eastern states have also experienced frequent widespread blackouts, especially at night. Meanwhile, Mumbai, India's second-largest city, saw its average daily electricity consumption hit an all-time high earlier this month, forcing some districts to go on rolling blackouts. Earlier this June, the Nagaland State Electricity Department (India) said that they were forced to shed loads across the state due to a lack of water for hydroelectric plants to produce electricity.

Meanwhile, Bangladesh is also suffering its worst energy crisis in 10 years, with an estimated electricity shortage of 15% in early June, three times higher than in May. Power cuts due to severe heat waves are occurring regularly in Bangladesh, with unannounced blackouts lasting 10 to 12 hours. Bangladeshis are facing their worst power crisis since 2013. In all of 2022, the country had a total of 113 days of power cuts, but in the first five months of this year alone, Bangladesh was forced to cut off power for 114 days due to severe heat and difficulty paying for fuel imports amid declining foreign exchange reserves and the value of the local currency.

In Thailand, high temperatures have increased electricity demand, putting the power system on alert. The Thai Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) said the extreme heat has caused the country's electricity demand to reach nearly 35,000 MW in just one day. This is a record electricity consumption during the country's hot season and up to 6% higher than the same period in 2022.

Some areas in Thailand have experienced widespread power grid failures due to localized overloads. The heat has also depleted Thailand’s lakes, affecting production activities, including hydropower. Officials have urged farmers to consider not growing a second rice crop or growing other crops that use less water to ensure water supplies for other activities, including electricity generation.

Drought in Somalia. Photo: Africanews.com

For its part, South Africa is still struggling with a prolonged, nationwide blackout, with the number of blackouts in South Africa in 2022 doubling compared to previous years and showing no signs of abating. A national state of disaster was declared by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in early February 2023. Forecasts from South African power company Eskom itself show that South African businesses and the country's 60 million people will be without power for at least another year. Eskom is responsible for supplying the majority of South Africa's electricity. However, coal-fired power plants are overloaded and have not been maintained for many years. Last year, the country implemented the highest level of rotating blackouts, which saw South Africans suffer multiple blackouts a day, each lasting between two and four hours.

France is no exception. Once a leading exporter of electricity in Europe, France is now forced to import electricity from the UK, Germany and Spain due to power shortages. Once considered a nuclear power, becoming a world example with an electricity industry that emits little greenhouse gases, the hexagonal country now has to operate a coal-fired power plant again, even though the Paris government previously pledged to shut down all coal-fired power plants. In the context of low supply, high demand, and an overloaded national grid, causing widespread power outages, the French government was forced to introduce regional power cuts in case electricity consumption reached an alarming level. According to France Info, 60% of the French population suffered from rotating power cuts. Power was cut in small areas, during peak hours on weekdays, between 8am and 1pm and between 6pm and 8pm, except on weekends and holidays.

People in the glamorous United States - the world's largest economy - also have to experience power outages and blackouts. Although the electricity is still on 99% of the time, sudden power outages still cost the United States at least 150 billion USD/year, mostly due to aging power systems and natural disasters. According to an analysis, the United States has more power outages than any other developed country. Research by Massoud Amin, an electrical and computer engineer at the University of Minnesota (USA), shows that people living in the upper Midwest of the United States lose power for an average of 92 minutes/year, while the figure in Japan is only... 4 minutes. According to a comparison by the Galvin Electricity Initiative, the average American electricity customer has to "live in the dark" more than 8 other industrialized countries.

Will the "electric fever" continue?

A significant barrier to the energy sector in the near future, according to the IEA, is the expected surge in global electricity demand. Specifically, global electricity demand is forecast to increase by 5,900 TWh, from 24,700 TWh in 2021 and increase by more than 7,000 TWh in 2030. In advanced economies, the biggest driver of growth on the demand side is from transport. In developing economies, the drivers include population growth and increased cooling demand.

What does the world do to save electricity? Illustration photo: Vir.com

In the context of countries increasingly focusing on developing the electricity sector to meet growth needs, while promoting the exploitation of cleaner sources, the energy crisis as well as the impact of persistent climate change can cause the risk of power shortages not only to occur in a few places but can be widespread, anywhere.

For example, due to unusually hot weather, ensuring electricity supply in many countries, including Japan, China... this summer faces many challenges. Recently, the Japanese government asked households and businesses in the Tokyo area to save electricity in July and August. The reserve power supply ratio in the Tokyo metropolitan area in July may drop to 3.1%, slightly higher than the lowest level to maintain stable supply, if the once-in-a-decade heat wave covers the area managed by Tokyo Electric Power Company (Tepco).

Meanwhile, the threat of power shortages in China has been evident since May, with electricity consumption hitting record levels since the start of the year in southern provinces. Last year, China's heatwave - the worst in 61 years - threatened the power supply for millions of people, especially in the southwestern and southern provinces. This year, meteorologists predict the scorching temperatures will continue. Experts warn that more drought could jeopardize hydropower generation, which will account for 15.3% of China's electricity supply in 2022.

In the United States, the risk of power shortages is growing as conventional power plants are shutting down faster than they can be replaced with renewable energy or storage. Power grids are under pressure as the United States makes a historic transition from conventional power plants that run on coal and natural gas to cleaner forms of energy, such as wind and solar. Aging nuclear power plants are slated to retire in many parts of the country. The U.S. grid faces the risk of power shortages due to supply constraints and other challenges. Large-scale, rolling blackouts have become more frequent in the past 20 years, in part due to grid failures over time and extreme weather events. At the same time, the growth of electric vehicles could create additional demand for electricity in the coming years, putting further pressure on the system.

Bangladesh's power ministry has also warned that the heatwave is continuing and the peak season from July to October is approaching, leaving 170 million people without power in the coming days. A Reuters analysis has shown that the erratic weather and difficulty in paying for fuel imports amid dwindling foreign reserves and a depreciating currency have left the country facing its worst power crisis since 2013.

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Lesson 2: The world solves the "problem" of saving electricity - From the government to the people

MINH ANH (synthesis)