Stock market new week: Has the market reflected the information, or is it waiting for the information to sink in?

The domestic stock market had a week (September 8-12) of quite good recovery after a sharp decline at the beginning of the week. Overall, the VN-Index increased insignificantly in the context of average liquidity at a moderate level, around the mark of more than 40,000 billion VND/session.

The market is still in the accumulation zone, the market needs new momentum to be able to find the historical mark of 1,700 points and of course, money must be strong again.

Recovered well after a sharp decline

Global stock markets hit new highs last week. The reason partly came from the positive sentiment when business results of enterprises remained good and the US inflation pressure eased, creating expectations of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates in the new week.

The MSCI All Country World Index, which tracks the performance of more than 2,500 stocks from both developed and emerging markets, has set new records for four consecutive trading sessions. Major stock indexes such as the S&P 500 hit 5,600 for the first time, while Japan's Nikkei 225, South Korea's Kospi and Singapore's Straits Times Index also hit all-time highs over the past week.

The domestic stock market also had a good week of recovery if calculated from the sharp decline at the beginning of the week. The VN-Index regained all the points lost in the sharp decline at the beginning of the week (-42.44 points), and closed the week at 1,667.26 points, equivalent to an increase of +0.29 points (or +0.02%) compared to the previous week.

The highlight of the stock market last week was the successful "test" of the 1,600-point support zone. The VN-Index had a time when it touched the 1,600-point threshold, when it fell by nearly 38 points, but strong buying pressure pushed the index to close at the session's highest level. Thus, if calculated from the deepest drop, the VN-Index has recovered by nearly 54 points.

Another point of note in this session is that the recovery force mainly came from the pillar codes in the bluechip group. Thanks to that, the VN30-Index increased by +1.1%, to 1,865.45 points and has the opportunity to gradually move towards the old peak of 1,880 points. Meanwhile, the groups of small and medium stocks all decreased: Midcap decreased -1.5% and smallcap decreased -1.1%.

On the Hanoi Stock Exchange, the two main indices also showed a recovery after a sharp decline at the beginning of the week, however, that was not enough to regain the upward momentum like the VN-Index. Accordingly, the HNX-Index decreased -1.48% to 276.51 points, while the UPCoM-Index lost -0.92% to 110.09 points.

Total market liquidity last week was VND41,070 billion, down -12% compared to the previous week, in which matched liquidity also dropped -17.4% to VND36,828 billion. Accumulated from the beginning of the year, the average liquidity of the whole market reached VND29,368 billion/session, up +39% compared to the average level in 2024, and up +30% compared to the same period last year.

The trading performance of foreign investors has not yet recovered. The selling level this week is also close to the level of the previous week. Foreign investors have sold a net of VND5,398 billion and extended their net selling streak to the 8th consecutive week. Accumulated since the beginning of the year, foreign investors have sold a net of VND88,363 billion.

Last week, foreign investors net bought VNM (+254 billion VND), VPB (+214 billion VND), GEX (+202 billion VND), while net selling HPG (-849 billion VND), MWG (-639 billion VND), MBB (-409 billion VND)...

The current market P/E (ttm) is at nearly 15.1 times , higher than the 3-year average (13.3 times). The VN30 and Midcap groups are also higher than the average, while the Smallcap group has not yet reached its peak like the other groups, so its P/E is currently at 12.6 times , lower than the 3-year average (15.5 times) .

VN-Index has a chance to regain historical milestone?

Technically, the domestic stock market is showing signs of testing the support zone around 1,600 points. The difference is that the volatility is very high, so there will always be an element of surprise. The conclusion that the market may enter the re-accumulation zone is based on cash flow.

Statistics show that although liquidity has increased sharply since the beginning of September, with more than 140% compared to the same period. However, liquidity seems to be in a challenging area, hovering around over 40,000 billion VND/session. In the first two weeks of September, liquidity has decreased by about -22% compared to August. The score and liquidity are showing signs of re-accumulation and this may continue in the short term.

The whole world is waiting for the Fed's move and decision on September 16-17.

However, that is just a possibility, because in reality, the market is still receiving a lot of positive information. The whole world is waiting for the Fed's move and decision on September 16-17.

The futures market is pricing in a 100% chance of a rate cut at the Fed's next meeting, with a 0.25 percentage point cut at more than 90% and a 0.5 percentage point cut at nearly 10%, according to data from the FedWatch Tool. The Fed's October rate cut odds have risen to 86% from 74% the day before, and a third cut in December has risen to 79% from 68%.

That is international, and domestically, besides the Government still promoting economic growth, a series of positive information for the stock market has appeared in the past week and weekend. If before that, Circular 25/2025/TT-NHNN shortened the time to open indirect capital accounts for foreign investors, then last week, Decree 245/2025/ND-CP had many reforms related to cutting procedures, shortening IPO listing and especially a series of regulations related to attracting foreign capital were "unleashed". In addition, the Project on developing investment funds, or most recently the Project on promoting upgrading the stock market, has also been issued by the Government. This continues to be a series of solutions that management agencies are trying to change to attract foreign investment capital.

Another point to note is that next week, ETF funds will have fund III portfolio restructuring activities and derivatives maturity sessions at the end of the week.

The most important thing for the market right now is to answer the question: Has the market reflected all the positive information, or should we wait more time to absorb the information?

The index signal at this time only plays a small role, the cash flow will decide. If liquidity increases gradually, the scenario at the end of July will likely be repeated, the market has the opportunity to surpass the 1,700 point threshold to find a new peak. But this does not exclude the opposite situation if liquidity weakens, falling deep below the 40,000 billion VND/session mark.

LONG AN

Source: https://nhandan.vn/thi-truong-chung-khoan-tuan-moi-thi-truong-da-phan-anh-thong-tin-hay-cho-thong-tin-ngam-post908134.html