The Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) said the energy market was the focus of attention of domestic and international investors in yesterday's trading session when it went against the trend of the entire market. 4 out of 5 commodities of the group closed in the red.
In the energy market, according to MXV, the energy market yesterday witnessed red dominating the price list with 4 out of 5 commodities simultaneously weakening. In particular, Brent oil price fell to the lowest level in the past week, stopping at 68.8 USD/barrel, corresponding to a decrease of 1.31%, WTI oil price was also not out of the trend when it lost more than 1.5% to 66.29 USD/barrel.
The main reason for the pressure on the oil market yesterday was the decision of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) to continue to maintain the plan to increase production by 547,000 barrels/day in September. This decision was made after an online meeting on August 3 with the participation of eight key members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman.
With this latest move, OPEC+ has completed the reversal of all production cuts implemented in 2023, with a total scale of up to 2.2 million barrels/day. In addition, OPEC+ also announced an additional production increase for the UAE, bringing the total increase to 2.5 million barrels/day, equivalent to about 2.4% of current global crude oil demand.
In a statement after the meeting, OPEC+ stressed that the decision was based on the healthy market operation and low oil reserves in many countries. At the same time, many opinions said that this was a step to expand market share in the context of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasting a decrease in US crude oil supply for the rest of 2025.
However, the OPEC+ decision has also raised concerns about a global oil supply glut, accompanied by forecasts of a sharp decline in energy demand. In its latest oil price forecast, Goldman Sachs, while maintaining its previous forecast, also warned that oil demand growth this year will likely fall by 800,000 barrels per day.
Goldman Sachs cited the White House’s tariff policies and the dim macroeconomic outlook in the world’s largest economy as the reasons. In addition, turmoil in Washington has caused investors to seek safer havens amid concerns about a gloomy economic outlook that has weakened energy demand for business production.
In data released by the EIA on July 31, US retail gasoline demand in May continued to fall to its lowest level since 2020, despite a sharp drop in oil prices during that period. Many analysts believe that this slow start to the peak travel season of people may be due to the uncertainty in the policies announced by the White House at that time.
For the industrial raw material group, however, in contrast to the gloomy general picture, the industrial raw material group recorded a bright spot thanks to the strong recovery of coffee prices. Specifically, the price of Arabica coffee increased by more than 1.5% to 6,361 USD/ton, while Robusta coffee jumped nearly 3% to 3,421 USD/ton - the highest level in many recent sessions.
According to MXV, the increase in world coffee prices was strongly boosted by the continuous appreciation of the Brazilian real in the last two sessions, a total increase of 1.8% compared to the USD. This made the country's coffee exports less attractive, thereby creating a push for prices. Along with that, the cautious selling mentality of Brazilian farmers due to low domestic prices further tightened supply. In fact, the latest report from Cecafe showed that Brazil's green coffee exports in July only reached 2.43 million 60kg bags, down 28% compared to the same period last year.
The shortage of supply does not only occur in Brazil. In Vietnam, farmers also tend to "hoard goods" when domestic prices are not attractive enough. This makes purchasing activities difficult. Recorded this morning, August 5, domestic coffee prices fluctuated around 99,700 - 100,500 VND/kg, an increase of 200 - 500 VND/kg compared to yesterday.
Meanwhile, the harvest in Brazil is entering its final stages. According to the latest report from members of Capal Cooperativa Agroindustrial, 85% of the area in Paraná and São Paulo has been harvested, equivalent to about 11,400 hectares as of last week. Although this year is in a “biennial” cycle with lower fruit yields due to the coffee tree’s biology, the average yield outlook remains stable and meets expectations for the current period.
Source: https://baolamdong.vn/thi-truong-hang-hoa-5-8-sac-do-phu-thi-truong-nang-luong-ca-phe-thanh-diem-sang-386430.html
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