On the morning of July 16, at the Government Headquarters, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh chaired an online conference between the Government and localities on the economic growth scenario for 2025 and tasks and solutions to achieve the growth target for 2025.
Also attending were Politburo members, Party Central Committee members, Deputy Prime Ministers, Deputy Secretaries of the Government Party Committee, leaders of ministries, branches, central and local agencies, leaders of commercial banks, corporations and state-owned enterprises.
The conference was connected online to 34 provinces and centrally-run cities and communes, wards and special zones across the country.
At the conference, Minister of Finance Nguyen Van Thang said that the Ministry has consulted on developing two economic growth scenarios for 2025.
Accordingly, scenario 1 determines that the growth rate for the whole year of 2025 will reach 8%. Specifically, the growth rate in the third quarter will reach 8.3% compared to the same period, equivalent to the scenario in Resolution 154/NQ-CP; the fourth quarter will reach 8.5% (0.1% higher than the scenario). The GDP scale for the whole year will be about 508 billion USD, and the GDP per capita will be about 5,000 USD.
With scenario 2 (full-year growth of 8.3-8.5% in 2025), the Ministry estimates that growth in the third quarter will reach 8.9-9.2% over the same period (0.6-0.9% higher than the scenario); the fourth quarter will reach 9.1-9.5% (0.7-1.1% higher than the scenario). The GDP scale in 2025 will be around 510 billion USD, with GDP per capita around 5,020 USD.
The Ministry of Finance recommends that the Government and the Prime Minister direct and manage ministries, branches and localities to strive to implement scenario 2 (8.3-8.5%), creating momentum for growth in 2026 to reach 10% or more.
Corresponding to the above two scenarios, the Ministry of Finance has projected growth scenarios for localities, corporations, general corporations, and state-owned enterprises. Accordingly, localities need to achieve a growth rate in 2025 higher than the target in Resolution No. 25/NQ-CP, especially the leading localities, the growth drivers of the whole country, such as: Hanoi increases by 8.5% (0.5% higher), Ho Chi Minh City 8.5% (0.4% higher), Quang Ninh 12.5% (1% higher), Thai Nguyen 8% (0.5% higher) ...; corporations, general corporations, and state-owned enterprises need to grow about 0.5% higher than the target at the beginning of the year.
To achieve a growth rate of 8.3-8.5% in 2025, the Ministry of Finance said it is necessary to mobilize about 111 billion USD in social investment capital in the last 6 months of the year, about 3 billion USD higher than the scenario of the country's economic growth reaching 8%.
Of which, the disbursement of public investment capital in the last 6 months of the year reached about 28 billion USD (equivalent to about 700,000 billion VND). Ministries, branches and localities must disburse 100% of the capital plan for 2025 and the additional capital allocated in 2025 from increased revenue and savings in the state budget in 2024 (about 152,700 billion VND).
Private investment is about 60 billion USD, about 3 billion USD higher than the scenario of 8% national economic growth; FDI attraction reaches 18.5 billion USD, realized FDI capital is about 16 billion USD; other investment is about 7 billion USD.
Regarding promoting private investment and state-owned enterprises, it is necessary to continue effectively implementing Resolution No. 68-NQ/TW of the Politburo, Resolution No. 198/2025/QH15 of the National Assembly on a number of special mechanisms and policies for private economic development and the Government's action programs.
The State Bank proactively adjusts the credit growth target for 2025 (about 16%) if necessary, ensuring credit capital for priority industries, sectors and projects; effectively directing the implementation of the VND500,000 billion loan packages for businesses investing in infrastructure and digital technology, the credit package for young people under 35 years old to buy social housing, etc.
At the conference, the opinions of ministries, branches, localities and enterprises basically agreed on the orientations according to the report of the Ministry of Finance; affirming that the growth target of 8.3-8.5% in 2025 is completely achievable to create momentum, create force, create enthusiasm to confidently enter the 2026-2030 period, successfully completing the strategic goals of the entire 2021-2030 period.
Delegates focused on analyzing and evaluating the context and situation in the coming time, especially the difficulties, challenges, obstacles, bottlenecks, and bottlenecks in promoting growth; discussing scenarios, growth targets for the third quarter, fourth quarter, and the last 6 months of the year of each locality, industry, and field; proposing breakthrough tasks and solutions, focusing on strong and effective impacts in the short and long term; recommending support mechanisms and policies to promote growth in industries, fields, and localities.
Total social investment in 2025 is about 2.8 million billion VND
In his concluding remarks, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh requested the Ministry of Finance and the Government Office to promptly synthesize and absorb comments and contributions to promptly complete and submit to the Government a Resolution to adjust and assign growth targets for the third quarter, fourth quarter and the last 6 months of the year for the whole country, each locality, industry and sector.
The Prime Minister stated the main goals including: Stabilizing the macro economy, controlling inflation at around 4.5%, GDP growth of the whole country in 2025 reaching 8.3-8.5% and in 2026 reaching 10% or more, ensuring major balances of the economy. Total social investment in 2025 is about 2.8 million billion VND; of which public investment is about 1 million billion VND and other sources are about 1.8 million billion VND. Along with that, well controlling public debt, government debt, foreign debt, budget deficit; improving the material and spiritual life of the people.
The Prime Minister emphasized: This is a very difficult goal and has many great challenges, but we cannot help but do it and this goal is not an impossible goal. If we cannot achieve this goal this year, it will affect the growth target for the coming years and the two 100-year goals that have been set.
Specifying 16 groups of key tasks and solutions, the Prime Minister requested the entire political system to participate with high determination, great efforts, drastic and effective actions, completing each task, and assigning "6 clear" tasks: clear people, clear work, clear time, clear responsibility, clear results, clear authority.
The Prime Minister requested to continue implementing proactive, flexible, timely and effective monetary policies; the State Bank directed to stabilize exchange rates, strive to continue reducing interest rates, support production, business and people's livelihoods, control credit flows into growth drivers of the economy, digital economy, green economy, circular economy and social housing.
Continue to implement a reasonable and effective expansionary fiscal policy, promote 100% public investment disbursement (about 1 million billion VND); ensure total social investment increases by about 11-12% compared to 2024. Expand revenue sources, promote spending savings, issue long-term government bonds to serve growth drivers, key national projects, digital economy, green economy, and circular economy.
The Prime Minister noted that monetary policy and fiscal policy must be coordinated harmoniously, reasonably, effectively, support, promote, and rely on each other to boost economic growth.
Regarding the implementation of the three strategic breakthroughs, the Prime Minister requested that the targets for highways, coastal roads, and railway projects must be completed; localities assigned works and projects must promote the spirit of self-reliance, self-reliance, self-control, and self-responsibility.
The Ministry of Justice and relevant ministries and sectors will remove institutional bottlenecks. Regarding human resources, focus on training high-quality human resources and human resources for emerging industries such as digital economy, green economy, and circular economy.
To promote new growth drivers, the Prime Minister requested to continue implementing the four "four pillars" resolutions of the Politburo, resolutions of the National Assembly and the Government. The Ministries of Health, Education and Training, Culture, Sports and Tourism continue to complete draft resolutions on breakthroughs in the development of health, education and culture to submit to the Politburo for promulgation.
On this occasion, the Prime Minister requested ministries, localities and agencies to prepare well for participating in the national exhibition on "80 years of the journey of independence - freedom - happiness" with a spirit of urgency and creativity.
Regarding agriculture, the Prime Minister noted ensuring food security and expanding exports to markets such as China, the Middle East, Africa, South America, etc.
Regarding culture and tourism, the Prime Minister requested promoting the development of cultural and entertainment industries; having appropriate visa policies along with stepping up tourism promotion to achieve the target of 25 million tourists in 2025.
The head of the Government requested to promote decentralization and delegation of power along with resource allocation, improve enforcement capacity and strengthen inspection and supervision; cut administrative procedures, reduce inconvenience, costs and compliance time for people and businesses.
State corporations and groups must strive for high growth, higher than the national average, reaching around 10% this year, on the basis of effective use of resources.
Localities should further promote the spirit of initiative and creativity, not waiting or relying on others in the spirit of promoting decentralization and delegation of power and according to assigned functions, tasks and powers.
The Prime Minister requested close connection between the three pillars: socio-economic development, national defense and security, and foreign affairs; both rapid and sustainable socio-economic development and maintaining independence, sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity, and expanding foreign affairs and integration.
Regarding social security, focus on eliminating temporary and dilapidated houses nationwide before August 31, including eliminating temporary and dilapidated houses for people with revolutionary contributions before July 27; resolutely and effectively implement the social housing program.
The Prime Minister requested to step up propaganda work, mobilize the participation of the whole society, create consensus on awareness, vision, action and implementation with the spirit of "The Party has directed, the Government is unified, the National Assembly agrees, the people support, the Fatherland expects, then only discuss action, not retreat", "resources originate from thinking and vision, motivation originates from innovation and creativity, strength originates from people and businesses".
The Prime Minister directed to establish a flexible, periodic monitoring, evaluation, and summary mechanism and make appropriate adjustments. At the same time, build a team of grassroots cadres capable of fulfilling their tasks, close to the people, serving the people, and promptly resolving tasks and issues for the people at the grassroots level.
The Prime Minister assigned ministries and branches to submit a Government resolution to resolve problems related to planning, ODA capital, and the allocation of common construction material mines, to be completed in July.
The Prime Minister noted that ministries, branches, agencies and localities focus on successfully organizing Party Congresses at all levels, but not to affect growth targets.
The Prime Minister requested the development and promulgation of a Government Resolution on growth targets that are close to the situation, specific, feasible, highly combative, systematic, synchronous, and effective to ensure the set goals.
Source: https://baolaocai.vn/thu-tuong-tang-truong-83-85-nam-2025-khong-la-muc-tieu-bat-kha-thi-post648898.html
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