Real estate, public investment disbursement grows well
In a recent report, SSI Research analysts said that in the context of the current uncertain global market related to tax policies, the driving force for credit growth in the second half of the year could come from real estate and infrastructure projects in the second half of 2025 and 2026.
These are also two areas receiving increasing policy attention, in line with the Government's efforts to stimulate domestic demand and maintain economic growth momentum in the context of current global fluctuations.
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Vietnam’s real estate market has shown early signs of recovery from 2024, driven by legal developments and a strong increase in new apartment supply (up 91% y-o-y). Property prices in major city centres – particularly in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City – have recovered. Local markets are also attracting attention, thanks to provincial mergers and infrastructure development projects. Low interest rates will also continue to boost buyer sentiment and support market liquidity in the short term.
A series of large-scale public investment projects are expected to boost credit growth not only in the second half of 2025 but also in the medium term. The Government has reaffirmed its strong commitment to disbursing 100% of the public investment plan for 2025, with the implementation progress accelerating significantly - demonstrating a sustained policy effort to promote infrastructure development and economic activity.
The removal of credit room - if it happens - will change the credit market share of banks in favor of banks with strong capital buffers, as these banks will have better ability to expand lending.
Interest rates under pressure but will remain stable
SSI Research analysts believe that once credit growth is stronger, interest rates are likely to fluctuate in the second half of 2025.
First, seasonal factors often lead to increased credit demand at the end of the year, putting pressure on the LDR ratio and forcing commercial banks to increase capital mobilization. As of the end of May 2025, the pure LDR ratio of the entire system remained high, reaching about 107%.
Second, faster disbursement of public investment could lead to a reduction in Treasury deposits at commercial banks - especially at state-owned commercial banks - which could put some pressure on system liquidity in the short term.
Third, foreign exchange rates are often under upward pressure in the third and early fourth quarters before cooling down at the end of the year.
“However, we believe that the interest rate environment will remain stable, in order to promote economic recovery. Short-term fluctuations may occur, but they will be localized and specific to each bank, rather than systemic or widespread,” analysts said.
Banks seek to diversify revenue streams
In the context of fierce competition in deposit interest rates causing NIM to narrow and net interest income to be under pressure, many banks are actively expanding into asset management to diversify revenue sources beyond traditional credit activities.
Analysts say that diversifying revenue sources will be a common trend in the medium term.
The establishment of gold and cryptocurrency exchanges in Vietnam - if piloted within the framework of the International Finance Center (IFC) in Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang - could serve as an initial catalyst for the transformation of the business models of domestic banks.
If the regulatory framework allows for a controlled pilot for digital assets within the IFC framework, banks could gradually test the provision of services under close regulatory oversight. However, expanding into these new asset classes also carries risks.
Another good news for the banking industry this year is that the National Assembly has passed the Law amending and supplementing a number of articles of the Law on Credit Institutions, expected to take effect from October 15, 2025, empowering banks to seize collateral when customers violate payment obligations.
This will help banks shorten processing times and improve debt collection efficiency; Improve asset liquidation processes, helping banks accelerate asset sales and recover capital more effectively; Reduce operating costs and increase the ability to provide credit at more competitive interest rates.
Banks with a high proportion of retail lending (such as VIB, TPB, OCB, MSB) - which handle a large number of small retail loans - will be the ones to benefit the most from the new legal changes.
According to SSI Research's forecast, profit growth of banks in the research scope will reach +14% and +16% yoy in 2025 and 2026, respectively.
Factors supporting bank profit growth are: strong credit growth (about 17% year-on-year), stable NIM at 3.28%, gradual improvement in credit costs (from 1.04% in 2025 to 0.95% in 2026)...
Source: https://baodautu.vn/tin-dung-nua-cuoi-nam-chu-yeu-dua-vao-bat-dong-san-va-dau-tu-cong-d326987.html
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