Avoid credit "mismatches".

One of the clearest indicators is that, since the beginning of the year, real estate business credit has increased at twice the average growth rate of credit across the entire system. In the first six months alone, credit across the system increased by approximately 10%, with real estate business credit estimated to have increased by 20%.

The Q2/2025 financial reports of a number of banks such as Techcombank, HDBank,SHB , MB… also show that real estate business lending by these banks increased by 20-35% compared to the end of last year.

To date, real estate credit has reached a record high (approximately 3.2 trillion VND). It's not difficult to understand why banks are pouring capital into real estate. As the Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam stated, the sharp increase in real estate credit in the first half of this year is consistent with the direction of resolving issues in the real estate market. Because, when legal obstacles are removed from projects, the demand for capital to implement them will inevitably increase.

From an independent perspective, analysts believe that, in the context of difficulties in production and consumption, the main drivers of growth are infrastructure and real estate. Furthermore, when lending for real estate, the actual loss rate is very low (due to the high liquidity of collateral). This is why these two sectors strongly attract capital.

Despite the rapid increase in real estate credit, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) is encouraging to note that lending in this sector still meets safety indicators. This is evidenced by the fact that the ratio of short-term capital used for medium and long-term loans remains below 30%. The regulator has also continuously directed credit institutions to balance capital according to maturity periods, ensuring the safety of the system.

However, the structure of real estate credit and the capital structure of the real estate market have recently shown some inconsistencies.

Firstly, regarding the credit structure, outstanding loans for real estate business have increased significantly, while loans for buying and renovating homes have increased slowly. This indicates that bank capital is mainly flowing to developers, while people are not yet enthusiastic about buying homes for personal use. This also stems from a market imbalance, with the supply of affordable and mid-range housing becoming increasingly scarce. The new supply on the market is mostly high-end apartments, while affordable, mid-range, and social housing are severely lacking. This is also the reason why the 145,000 billion VND credit package for social housing, as well as credit packages for people under 35, have been disbursed very slowly.

Secondly, regarding the capital structure for the real estate market, previously, the debt financing structure of many real estate companies relied heavily on bonds, even up to 50-60%, but this has now been sharply reduced by half. In the first seven months of this year, bond issuance across the entire market increased by 63% compared to the end of last year, but real estate bond issuance alone increased by just over 13%.

In reality, when credit is loosened, lending interest rates hit rock bottom, and banks become more open to real estate lending, many developers not only refrain from issuing new bonds but also aggressively repay existing bonds ahead of schedule, shifting to bank loans. This increased reliance on bank credit by businesses, especially in sectors requiring long-term capital like real estate, poses significant risks to the banking system, particularly the risk of maturity mismatch.

Although real estate credit is currently safe, if it continues to increase sharply and capital flows mainly into high-end real estate projects as it is now, the market will inevitably face instability.

To remedy this situation, we cannot rely on adjustments from banks – which are strongly driven by profit motives and shareholder interests – but rather require the regulatory hand of the State. Accordingly, the State Bank of Vietnam, the Ministry of Construction , and other ministries and agencies must find solutions to increase the supply of social housing and affordable housing, and redirect credit flow to these segments. Furthermore, when credit limits are lifted in the future, the State Bank of Vietnam must also have more effective tools to direct capital flows into priority sectors.

The long-term solution, as the Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam has stated, is to strongly develop the capital market, effectively meeting the needs for medium and long-term capital, thereby reducing pressure on the short-term capital sources of the banking system. Sectors requiring large amounts of medium and long-term capital, such as real estate and infrastructure, need to raise funds through corporate bond issuance, local government bonds, or international loans… they cannot continue to rely solely on bank credit.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/tranh-lech-pha-tin-dung-d361861.html