Sea route could help Iran ship goods to Russia

The Caspian Sea is considered an important shipping route between Russia and Iran, including weapons, which the West finds difficult to block.

On May 28, the Ukrainian military announced that it had shot down 58 out of 59 Shahed-type suicide drones that Russia used in a large-scale attack on the night of May 27. This is considered the largest attack by an Iranian-made UAV that Russia has carried out since the beginning of the war.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian admitted in November 2022 that his country had transferred a “small number” of UAVs to Russia, but that the transfer had been completed months before the war broke out. However, in the months that followed, Ukraine repeatedly reported shooting down hundreds of Shahed-type UAVs used in attacks on its critical infrastructure.

Two senior Iranian officials also told Reuters that the country had pledged to deliver more missiles and drones to Russia, when Vice President Mohammad Mokhber visited Moscow in October 2022.

Western experts say that as Russia and Iran increasingly strengthen cooperation, the route through the Caspian Sea is regularly exploited by the two countries to transport UAVs, mortar shells and other types of ammunition that Moscow buys from Tehran for use in the Russia-Ukraine war.

Data shows that more and more vessels operating in the area are turning off their identification devices to hide their activities and hinder the tracking of cargo flows. Lloyd's List Intelligence, which provides information to the global maritime community, said that the gap in ship tracking data in the Caspian Sea increased dramatically in September 2022.

The information comes after the US and Ukraine said Russia ordered Shahed UAVs from Iran last summer. Russian forces then increased their use of Shahed-style suicide UAVs to attack Ukraine's critical infrastructure.

Experts say Ukraine's Western allies have little ability to stop shipping between Iran and Russia through the Caspian Sea, a closed body of water bordering the former Soviet states of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.

“Iran’s exports through the Caspian Sea are not at risk. Other countries bordering the Caspian Sea have no ability or incentive to interfere with them,” said Martin Kelly, a partner at London-based security firm EOS Risk Group. “It’s the perfect environment for trade to flow.”

Frequency of hiding the routes of Russian and Iranian ships in the Caspian Sea. Graphics: CNN — Frequency of Russian and Iranian ships hiding their routes in the Caspian Sea. Graphics: *CNN*

Kelly said that the number of vessels operating in the Caspian Sea that turned off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) between August and September 2022 increased. By turning off AIS, vessels can hide their routes, locations, or cargo transfers between them at sea.

According to Lloyd's List Intelligence, the gap in data on ship movements in the Caspian Sea remains large this year. Most of the cases of AIS shutdowns were Russian and Iranian cargo ships near the Iranian ports of Amirabad and Anzali, ports on the Volga River and in Astrakhan, Russia.

Western experts believe that some ships may have traveled from Iranian ports to Russia, although they did not dock, while others hid their routes as they approached the ports of Amirabad or Astrakhan.

They also admitted that it was difficult to know for sure what the cargo was on those ships, unless there were eyewitness accounts or satellite images, but still suspected that the activities of Russian and Iranian cargo ships in the Caspian Sea "consistent with Western intelligence reports about Iran exporting UAVs to Russia".

“There is a correlation between requests for Iranian-made UAVs from Russia, secret port calls in the Caspian Sea, and increased AIS-disabling activity,” Kelly said.

Before Russia launched its campaign in Ukraine, countries around the Caspian Sea paid attention and expressed interest in the route through the Caspian Sea, especially Iran.

The Bosphorus Observer consultancy, based in the Turkish city of Istanbul, said Iran had invested in upgrading Russia's Astrakhan port to increase its options for shipping goods to Europe via a route that could circumvent sanctions.

“Some Iranian state-owned airlines could ship UAVs to Russia,” Kelly said. “However, when comparing the volume of cargo in a single trip, ships can carry more cargo.”

The Caspian Sea and surrounding areas. Photo: NASA — Satellite image of the Caspian Sea and surrounding area. Photo: *NASA*

Western experts predict that the level of concealment of cargo ship activities in the Caspian Sea will remain high in 2023, and at the same time, they believe that no side can interfere with Russia's influence in this inland sea.

Yoruk Isık, an expert at the Bosphorus Observer consultancy, said Russian ships "have an extra layer of protection" in the Caspian Sea, as countries in the region "do not want to interfere with their activities".

Western experts also assess that growing cooperation in the Caspian Sea, where the West has little influence and is difficult to intervene, strengthens both Russia and Iran.

"Russia and Iran used to confront each other in the Caspian Sea, but this is now a potential route for Tehran to evade sanctions and supply weapons to Moscow," said Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, an expert on the Middle East and North Africa at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

Nguyen Tien (According to CNN )

Source link