Ukraine in a “fire bag” as the Black Sea is closed

Ukraine is facing a serious situation in the Black Sea as the sea is completely closed to Kiev, said Oleg Soskin, who was an advisor to former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma (1994-2005).

“Ukraine is in a very difficult situation, frankly, I call it a firebox... The sea is closed and the situation in the Black Sea is very serious,” Mr. Soskin said in a video posted on his YouTube channel on September 16.

Mr Soskin added that the only way out for Ukrainian agricultural exports was through Bulgaria, Moldova and Romania. However, he believes that the decision by Hungary, Poland and Slovakia to extend the ban on Ukrainian grain imports is a “stab in the back”.

“We have to call things what they are. This is a geopolitical and geo-economic blow, and it is unprecedented,” Mr. Soskin said, assessing the moves of Ukraine’s neighbors.

“In fact, this is an open geopolitical war against Ukraine,” the former adviser stressed. In his opinion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the current administration are not prepared for all this.

The grain deal between Russia and Ukraine, brokered by the United Nations and Türkiye, expired on July 17. The Russian Defense Ministry later warned that from July 20, Moscow would consider all ships passing through the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports as capable of transporting military cargo, and that the flag states of such ships would be parties to the conflict in Ukraine and on the side of the Kiev government.

World - Ukraine in a — The container ship JOSEPH SCHULTE (registered in Hong Kong - China) leaves the seaport in Odessa, Ukraine, in this photo posted on Facebook by Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov, August 16, 2023. Photo: CNN

On August 10, the Ukrainian Navy announced the temporary opening of Black Sea corridors for merchant ships heading to or from the ports of Chernomorsk, Odessa and Yuzhny. Kiev warned that the risk of military attacks and collisions with drifting mines remained on the route, so only ships whose owners and captains had officially confirmed their readiness to sail in such conditions would be allowed to navigate the waters.

On September 15, the European Commission (EC) decided not to extend the ban on imports of grain and other agricultural products from Ukraine after the ban expired on September 15, but asked Kiev to submit an action plan to avoid market distortions in EU countries. Shortly after, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia announced unilateral restrictions on grain imports from Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Zelensky vowed to respond to “neighbors who violate EU rules”.

Hungary, Poland and Slovakia argue that a glut of imports from Ukraine continues to depress domestic prices and push some local farmers to the brink of bankruptcy. With competitive general elections coming up in both Poland and Slovakia in just a few weeks, neither Warsaw nor Bratislava wants to “anger” their large farming populations.

In Poland, the new ban covers not only four cereals but also products made from corn, wheat and rapeseed. Hungary has imposed an import ban on 24 agricultural products from Ukraine, including cereals, vegetables, some meat products and honey.

The ban only affects imports to Poland, Slovakia and Hungary. The three countries will still allow Ukrainian grain to transit their territories en route to third countries via the “Solidarity Corridor.” This route carried about 60 percent of Ukraine’s grain exports last year, including 4 million tons of grain. The remaining 40 percent passed through the Black Sea, but that channel has been disrupted since the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative .

Minh Duc (According to TASS, GZero Media)

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