VinaCapital is optimistic about Vietnam's GDP growth in 2024

Mr. Michael Kokalari, CFA, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis and Market Research at VinaCapital, believes that Vietnam's GDP growth will slow down to 4.7% in 2023. However, it will recover to 6.5% in 2024.

Talks between General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong and US President Joe Biden on the afternoon of September 10 - Photo: HAI HUY

VinaCapital experts also emphasized that the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between Vietnam and the US will be an important turning point, marking a new development period for Vietnam.

In the latest report published on October 24, Mr. Michael Kokalari forecasts that Vietnam's GDP growth will slow down from 8% in 2022 to 4.7% in 2023.

The main reason is the decline in exports and production due to the world 's reduced demand for "Made in Vietnam" products. Specifically, Vietnam's exports decreased by nearly 10% compared to the same period in the first 9 months of 2023 due to exports to the US, Vietnam's largest export market, decreasing by nearly 20%.

Meanwhile, domestic consumption growth was almost flat year-on-year, compared to the usual 8-9% pre-COVID growth rate. Market sentiment has been affected by ongoing challenges in the real estate market.

However, foreign tourist arrivals have recovered to nearly 70% of pre-COVID-19 levels this year and will contribute to supporting GDP growth in 2023.

"We expect Vietnam's GDP growth to recover to 6.5% in 2024 thanks to a recovery in exports.

This will be accompanied by a recovery in Vietnam's manufacturing output from zero growth in 2023 to 8-9% growth in 2024, compared to the long-term average growth of 12% of the industry before COVID," VinaCapital experts forecast.

VinaCapital’s optimism about Vietnam’s GDP growth rebounding in 2024 is driven by manufacturing as US retailers’ inventories have begun to decline sharply after a year of sluggish purchasing power. It estimates inventories to rise more than 20% year-on-year by the end of 2022.

Will Vietnam soon host the Olympic Games?

VinaCapital experts warn international investors that upgrading Vietnam-US relations for Vietnam could create the premise for Vietnam to host the Olympic Games in the future. Because hosting the Olympics was also an important economic "launch event" for Japan, South Korea and China in the past.

This assessment was further reinforced when India recently announced its intention to submit a bid to host the Olympic Games in 2036.

According to VinaCapital, this event will help Vietnam move closer to the "friend-shoring" orbit of the US.

Tuoitre.vn