VN-Index falls sharply, where is the opportunity to surpass 1,300 points?

With a fear of risk, VN-Index has been constantly "struggling" before the 1,300 mark with weak liquidity throughout the past time, experts have given their assessment and comments on the Vietnamese stock market.

Fearful psychology hinders VN-Index before 1,300 point mark

Doubting the market's risks, Ms. Hong Ngoc (33 years old, Thanh Xuan district, Hanoi ) decided to reduce a large proportion of stocks in today's session: "The market is in a state of adjustment, so to preserve assets as well as profit percentage, I have recalculated the proportion of stocks held to preserve assets as well as profits, and at the same time switch to other potential stocks."

In line with this trend, Ms. Bao Anh (28 years old, Dong Da district, Hanoi) said: "Worried that the market is not stable, I have been monitoring it for a while, so I decided to take profit, although it is not as high as expected. But while the market has not had any more positive information to break out, negative risks may occur, so first of all, preserving assets and profits is still the most important thing."

Recorded in today's session, a strong selling trend suddenly appeared at the end of the afternoon trading session after moving sideways all day. VN-Index plunged nearly 10 points (equivalent to a decrease of 0.77%), establishing the sharpest decline in the past month.

VN-Index has the biggest drop in the past month (Photo: SSI iBoard)

A "tug of war" appeared between the buyers and sellers, with neither side gaining absolute dominance. Although the "red color" spread across the entire market, the low supply of low prices caused the codes to adjust at a slight amplitude. In total, 211 codes decreased (3 codes hit the floor), 157 codes increased (2 codes hit the ceiling) and 72 codes remained unchanged.

Liquidity increased sharply to VND19,100 billion, but nearly half of that amount only appeared when selling pressure was promoted in the afternoon session, most of the time before that, the market was trading gloomy.

The VN30 group negatively impacted the market with 23 stocks falling.

In terms of industry groups, the chemical, technology, securities and banking industries led the downward trend with the codes: GVR (Vietnam Rubber, HOSE), BID ( BIDV , HOSE), FPT (FPT, HOSE), VCB (Vietcombank, HOSE), CTG (ViettinBank, HOSE)...

Foreign investors maintained a sell-off for the 8th consecutive session with a value of nearly 140 billion VND today.

Since the beginning of the year, VN-Index has reached the 1,300 point mark 6 times. The current trading range of the market is also trading around this threshold, with somewhat more difficult developments as it continuously maintains a tug-of-war state.

The tug-of-war continues before the 1,300 point mark

According to experts, the Vietnamese stock market is facing difficulties due to low liquidity and selling pressure from foreign investors.

Faced with this phenomenon, Mr. Truong The Vinh, consultant, Mirae Asset Securities, explained that market liquidity is at a low level compared to the average since the beginning of the year, showing investors' caution.

This sentiment is spread by risks from domestic and international macroeconomic fluctuations, such as the weak recovery of the Eurozone, slow recovery of China; geopolitical conflicts breaking out in the Middle East, Ukraine and North Korea - South Korea... making the economic recovery process more difficult; the upcoming US presidential election on November 5, new policies will be more difficult to predict, adding risk factors to the market.

From the market perspective, the amount of people's deposits into the credit institution system has continuously increased, withdrawing a large amount of money into securities; pressure from foreign net selling on the two exchanges HOSE and HNX; the story of the Vietnamese stock market not being upgraded.

Besides, the group of large-cap stocks - Real estate has a negative trend when a series of projects of real estate enterprises are being inspected and handled for violations.

The above factors have added to the negative trend in investor sentiment.

What are the chances for VN-Index to surpass 1,300 for the 7th time?

However, the Vietnamese stock market is still expected to grow, surpassing 1,300 points in the last months of this year.

Giving his assessment of market opportunities, Mr. Truong The Vinh said that economic growth is still quite positive, GDP in the third quarter of 2024 increased by 7.4% over the same period last year, thanks to that, in the first 9 months of 2024, the GDP growth rate reached 6.82%, a fairly high increase compared to the same period in 2023...

Next, development investment achieved positive results, creating momentum to promote economic growth. Total social investment capital in the first 9 months increased by 6.8%. FDI attraction in the first 9 months reached 24.78 billion USD, up 11.6%; realized FDI capital reached 17.3 billion USD, up 8.9% and the highest in many years.

In addition, the trend of promoting disbursement of public investment capital in the last months of 2024; the timely and effective direction and intervention of the Prime Minister's Working Group for a series of real estate projects has removed legal and policy bottlenecks, sending positive signals of recovery in late 2024, unblocking stagnant credit flows; opportunities to benefit from the US Federal Reserve's (FED) move to likely continue lowering interest rates in November.

Based on macroeconomic data for the first 9 months of 2024 and economic forecasts, Mr. Vinh named a number of industry groups expected to benefit in the fourth quarter of this year, including:

Banks with growing credit, actively supporting profits for banks; bad debt is controlled at a safe level.

Retail with the year-end shopping season, stimulating consumer demand; inflation is controlled, supporting consumer purchasing power; tourism recovers, boosting revenue of retail businesses, especially businesses in consumer goods, food and beverage services, and accommodation.

Real estate benefits from legal clearance, frozen real estate projects can be restarted, thereby recovering the market, creating growth momentum for the economy.

Construction materials, with the construction materials manufacturing group (plastic, steel, etc.), benefited largely from the recovery of the economy in general and the real estate market in particular. When infrastructure and real estate projects are implemented, it opens up opportunities for construction materials businesses to improve revenue and increase profits.

Source: https://phunuvietnam.vn/vn-index-roi-manh-co-hoi-vuot-1300-diem-tu-dau-20241022192821754.htm