VPI forecasts sharp drop in gasoline prices

The Machine Learning-based gasoline price forecasting model of the Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI) shows that, at the adjustment period on July 3, retail gasoline prices may decrease by 6.8 - 7.5%.

Buying and selling gasoline and oil at Petrolimex gasoline business points. Illustration photo: Tran Viet/VNA

According to Mr. Doan Tien Quyet, a data analysis expert at VPI, the gasoline price forecasting model using the artificial neural network (ANN) model and supervised learning algorithm in VPI's machine learning forecasts that the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline may only decrease by VND 1,412 (6.9%) to VND 19,118/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline may only decrease by VND 1,440 (6.8%) to VND 19,670/liter.

VPI's model also forecasts that in this period, kerosene prices may decrease by 7.5% to VND17,631/liter, fuel oil may decrease by 7.2% to VND15,730/kg, and diesel oil may decrease by 7.1% to VND17,977/liter. VPI forecasts that the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Trade will continue not to set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund this period.

From July 1, value added tax (VAT) on gasoline will decrease by 2%, from 10% to 8%, according to Resolution No. 204/2025/QH15 of the National Assembly .

In the world market, oil prices increased slightly in the session of July 1 as investors assessed positive signals about demand, while watching the OPEC+ meeting taking place on July 6 to decide on production for August 2025.

Accordingly, Brent oil price closed on July 1 up 0.6% to 67.11 USD/barrel; US light sweet crude oil (WTI) price increased 0.5% to 65.45 USD/barrel.

However, the upside is limited by expectations that OPEC+ will continue to increase oil production in August 2025, with the scale equivalent to the strong increases agreed in May, June and July 2025. Energy analyst Alex Hodes of StoneX said that OPEC+ is likely to decide to add 411,000 barrels per day to gain more market share, mainly from US shale oil producers.

According to official data released on July 1, US shale oil producers increased production at a record pace in April 2025. In addition to competing for market share, OPEC+ is also looking to put pressure on members that are overproducing.

Source: https://baohatinh.vn/vpi-du-bao-gia-xang-dau-giam-manh-post290979.html