VPI forecasts sharp drop in gasoline prices

The Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI)'s Machine Learning-based gasoline price forecasting model shows that, at the July 3 adjustment period, retail gasoline prices may decrease by 6.8 - 7.5%.

Buying and selling gasoline and oil at Petrolimex gasoline business points. Illustration photo: Tran Viet/VNA

According to Mr. Doan Tien Quyet, data analysis expert of VPI, the gasoline price forecasting model applying artificial neural network (ANN) model and supervised learning algorithm in VPI's machine learning forecasts that the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline may only decrease by 1,412 VND (6.9%) to 19,118 VND/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline may only decrease by 1,440 VND (6.8%) to 19,670 VND/liter.

VPI's model also forecasts that in this period, kerosene prices may decrease by 7.5% to 17,631 VND/liter, fuel oil may decrease by 7.2% to 15,730 VND/kg, and diesel oil may decrease by 7.1% to 17,977 VND/liter. VPI forecasts that the Ministry of Finance and Industry and Trade will continue not to set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund this period.

From July 1, value-added tax (VAT) on gasoline will decrease by 2%, from 10% to 8%, according to Resolution No. 204/2025/QH15 of the National Assembly .

In the world market, oil prices increased slightly in the session on July 1 as investors assessed positive signals about demand, while watching the OPEC+ meeting taking place on July 6 to decide on production for August 2025.

Accordingly, Brent oil price closed on July 1 up 0.6% to 67.11 USD/barrel; US light sweet crude oil (WTI) price increased 0.5% to 65.45 USD/barrel.

However, the upside is limited by expectations that OPEC+ will continue to increase oil production in August 2025, with the same scale as the sharp increases agreed in May, June and July 2025. Energy analyst Alex Hodes of StoneX said that OPEC+ is likely to decide to add 411,000 barrels per day to gain more market share, mainly from US shale oil producers.

According to official data released on July 1, US shale oil producers increased production at a record pace in April 2025. In addition to competing for market share, OPEC+ is also looking to put pressure on members that produce beyond their quotas.

Source: https://baohatinh.vn/vpi-du-bao-gia-xang-dau-giam-manh-post290979.html