VPI forecasts gasoline prices to decrease in the operating period on October 23

Photo caption — VPI forecasts a decrease in gasoline prices in the operating period on October 23. Photo: Le Dong/VNA

The Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI)'s Machine Learning-based gasoline price forecasting model shows that, in the operating period on October 23, retail gasoline prices may decrease by 1.3-1.5% while oil prices may decrease sharply by 2.6-4.5% compared to the previous operating period, if the Ministry of Finance and Industry and Trade do not set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.

According to Mr. Doan Tien Quyet, data analysis expert of VPI, the gasoline price forecasting model applying artificial neural network (ANN) model and supervised learning algorithm in VPI's machine learning forecasts that the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline may decrease by 288 VND (1.5%) to 18,932 VND/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline may decrease by 261 VND (1.5%) to 19,639 VND/liter.

VPI's model predicts that in this period, diesel prices may drop sharply by 4.5% to VND17,591/liter, fuel oil may drop by 3.9% to VND14,148/kg, and kerosene prices may drop by 2.6% to VND17,922/kg.

VPI forecasts that this period, the Ministry of Finance and Industry and Trade will continue not to set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.

In the world market, world oil prices fell to their lowest level in more than 5 months on October 21. Specifically, the price of North Sea Brent crude oil for delivery decreased by 0.46% to 61.01 USD/barrel; the price of US light sweet crude oil (WTI) decreased by 0.03% to 57.52 USD/barrel. Both types of oil lost more than 1 USD at one point during the trading session and closed at their lowest level since early May 2025.

Oil prices fell sharply as investors worried about the risk of a global oversupply, amid US-China trade tensions that are increasing the possibility of an economic slowdown and energy demand.

Market data shows that sentiment among oil traders has shifted from concerns about shortages to oversupply. The structure of Brent futures, a key indicator of the supply-demand outlook, shows that prices for early contracts are now lower than those for later delivery, creating a situation called contango. This encourages traders to stockpile oil to sell later when supplies are expected to shrink. Now, the Brent contango spread, which resurfaced on October 16 after a brief hiatus in May, has widened to its highest level since December 2023.

“Oversupply concerns are hanging over the market, especially as we look out into 2026. We’re going to see increased demand for oil on ships and in domestic storage. This is a clear bearish trend that the market hasn’t seen in a long time,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital.

Last week, both Brent and WTI fell more than 2%, marking the third consecutive weekly decline, partly due to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) forecast that the supply glut could widen by 2026.

Notably, the world’s two largest oil consuming economies – the US and China – have reignited their trade war, imposing additional port fees on cargo ships traveling between the two countries. These “tit-for-tat” measures could disrupt global shipping flows, causing demand for gasoline to decline.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/kinh-te/vpi-du-bao-gia-xang-dau-giam-trong-ky-dieu-hanh-ngay-2310-20251021173337074.htm