WTO lowers global trade growth forecast for 2026 to 0.5%

On October 8, the World Trade Organization (WTO) sharply lowered its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 to just 0.5%, compared with the expected 1.8% announced in August.

Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said she was very concerned about the outlook, especially as US President Donald Trump's new tariffs begin to take effect.

According to the WTO, the US tax hikes have shaken financial markets and caused a wave of instability for the global economy .

Since August, Washington has raised import tariffs on goods from dozens of countries, forcing many partners such as Switzerland, Brazil and India to renegotiate, while the European Union (EU) reached an agreement to impose a 15% tax on most goods exported to the US.

2025 trade growth forecast improved by AI demand and US imports

In contrast to 2026, the 2025 trade forecast has been raised to 2.4%, compared to the previous 0.9%. This improvement is mainly due to the increase in US imports before the new tariffs take effect, along with strong growth in the group of goods related to artificial intelligence (AI).

According to the WTO report, in the first half of 2025, the volume of global merchandise trade increased by 4.9% over the same period, while the value of trade increased by 6%.

Goods such as machinery, cars, wood and especially semiconductors and telecommunications equipment contributed greatly to this increase, accounting for nearly half of the total global trade growth. Exports from the Asian region recorded the most prominent increase.

The WTO report shows that Asia and Africa will be the two regions with the fastest export growth this year, while Europe will see a slowdown and North America may decline.

Moving into 2026, all regions are forecast to experience weaker import performance due to the impact of tariff barriers and slowing global economic growth.

The WTO also forecasts global GDP growth in 2026 to reach only 2.6%, down slightly from 2.7% in 2025. The organization believes that although the multilateral trading system remains stable, the impact of new tariff measures will be long-lasting, making the world trade outlook continue to face many challenges in the coming year.

Source: https://baonghean.vn/wto-ha-du-bao-tang-truong-thuong-mai-toan-cau-nam-2026-con-0-5-10307889.html