Global coffee exports down 6.2% in first 7 months of 2022-2023 crop year

Global coffee exports continue to decline

According to data from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), in April this year, global coffee exports reached more than 10.1 million bags, down 2.6% compared to 10.4 million bags in the same period last year.

In the first 7 months of the 2022-23 crop year (October 22, 2022 to April 23, 2023), global coffee exports decreased by 6.2% (4.77 million bags) compared to the same period last year to 72.2 million bags. In the 12 months ending April 2023, Arabica coffee exports totaled 75.2 million bags, down 9.6% year-on-year; while Robusta exports reached 48.5 million bags, down 1%.

Green coffee alone accounts for more than 90% of total global coffee exports with 9.2 million bags in April, down 2.9% year-on-year.

Thus, this is the fifth consecutive month of decline in global green coffee exports since the beginning of the 2022-2023 crop year. Therefore, in the first 7 months of the 2022-2023 crop year, global green coffee exports only reached 64.9 million bags, down 6.4% compared to the previous crop year.

In the past 7 months, green coffee exports of Brazilian arabica decreased by 9% to 21 million bags; other arabica decreased by 13.8% to 11.2 million bags; Colombian arabica decreased by 15.3% to 6.3 million bags. Robusta alone increased to 26.4 million bags compared to 25.8 million bags in the same period of the 2021-2022 crop year.

Global green coffee exports in the first 7 months of crop year 2022-2023 (October 2022 to April 2023)

With this result, the proportion of robusta coffee in total global coffee exports increased to 40.6% from 37.2% in the previous crop year. This is also the highest proportion of robusta in the structure of exported coffee beans in recent crop years. In contrast, the proportion of arabica decreased from 62.8% to 59.4%.

The proportion of Arabica and Robusta coffee in the total world coffee bean exports

Instant coffee exports also fell 3.7% in April to 0.87 million bags. In the first seven months of the crop year, a total of 6.8 million bags of instant coffee were exported, down 4.3% from 7.1 million bags in the same period last coffee year.

In terms of proportion, instant coffee accounted for 9.4% of total global coffee exports, up slightly from 9.1% in April 2022. Brazil is currently the world's largest exporter of instant coffee, with a volume of 0.34 million bags in April.

Meanwhile, roasted coffee exports in April unexpectedly increased sharply by 38.6% to 72,925 bags. However, from October 2022 to April 2023, roasted coffee exports decreased slightly to 0.44 million bags, compared to 0.45 million bags in the same period last year.

Coffee exports in the first 7 months of the 2022-2023 crop year (Source: ICO)

Decline in most suppliers

Coffee exports recorded declines across most suppliers, with South America down 6.4% to nearly 3.6 million bags in April, driven by a 17.9% decline in the region’s three main producers, Brazil, Colombia and Peru.

Brazil and Colombia saw declines of 2.5% and 14.8%, respectively, to 2.7 million bags and 0.7 million bags, respectively. In Colombia, adverse weather conditions are negatively affecting the country’s coffee production and exports, with Colombia’s coffee output falling 6% in April.

Peru continued to see a sharp decline in exports of 62.5% in April as adverse weather and political instability in key producing regions greatly affected the country's export supply.

Similarly, coffee exports from Africa fell 9.8% year-on-year to 0.9 million bags in April. In the first seven months of the current crop year, African coffee exports reached 6.9 million bags, down 5.9% year-on-year.

In April, major African exporters Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda saw declines of 17.6%, 25.8% and 8.4% respectively.

The impact of drought at the start of the current crop year, coupled with lower exports to Sudan, were among the reasons for the decline in coffee exports, the Uganda Coffee Development Authority said. Meanwhile, in Ethiopia, a contract dispute arising from a gap between domestic and international prices has affected coffee exports in the first months of 2023. Exporters are holding back coffee until the disputes are resolved.

Coffee exports by regions in the first 7 months of the 2022-2023 crop year

Coffee exports from Central America and Mexico increased by 6.3% in April to 1.9 million bags, with Costa Rica, Honduras and Nicaragua growing by 27%, 13% and 11.2% respectively. However, the region’s coffee exports for the first seven months of the current crop year have fallen by 4% to 8.01 million bags.

Meanwhile, in Asia and Oceania, the region’s coffee exports fell 1% to just over 3.7 million bags in April 2023. However, the overall 7-month figure still increased by 1.1% to 27.5 million bags. This is also the only region with an increase in export volume so far in the 2022-2023 crop year.

In April, Indonesia's exports fell sharply by 24.6%, far exceeding the positive growth of 3.1% in Vietnam, the region's top manufacturer and exporter.

Vietnam's exports in the first seven months of the current coffee year rose 6.7% to 19.18 million bags from 17.97 million bags in the same period, mainly due to a 14.9% increase in domestic production in 2021-22 and supply constraints faced by other major robusta producers.

Over the same period, Brazil’s robusta exports fell 36.1%, India’s 31.1%, and Uganda’s 6.2%. Indonesia’s exports appear to have been negatively affected by lower production, with an estimated 4.7% decline in 2021-22.

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