How much is expected to be earned from shrimp exports in 2023?

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), shrimp exports reached 322 million USD in September 2023, down 8% year-on-year. Although negative growth has not been avoided, the decline has gradually narrowed month by month. In the first 9 months of this year, shrimp exports reached 2.5 billion USD, down 26% year-on-year.

Black tiger shrimp is the main export product of the shrimp industry.

Vietnam's shrimp exports in September this year saw positive signals from markets such as the US, Australia, Canada, Belgium, and Taiwan with positive growth rates from 1 - 54%.

The remaining major markets such as the EU, Japan, and South Korea still recorded negative growth of 10-26%, but the decline was lower than in previous months. In particular, the Chinese and Hong Kong (China) markets, after positive growth in the three months of June, July, and August, shrimp exports to these markets continued to decline.

Accordingly, in September 2023, Vietnam's shrimp exports to China and Hong Kong (China) markets decreased by 13%, reaching 61 million USD compared to the same period last year. In the first 9 months, shrimp exports to this market reached 454 million USD, down 6% compared to the same period last year.

The reason is that after a long holiday including the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day in China, shrimp consumption demand has decreased sharply. Inventory is high because China previously imported a lot of shrimp from Ecuador.

Companies holding inventory do not want to reduce prices to clear their inventory. The nuclear waste discharge from Japan is also believed to have affected the demand for seafood in general, including shrimp, in the Chinese market. It is expected that in the last quarter of the year, China's demand for shrimp will not recover.

According to VASEP, the US is considered a market with a positive trend in shrimp imports from Vietnam as shrimp exports to this market continued to grow positively in September - marking the third consecutive month of positive growth.

Shrimp exports to the US in September recorded the highest growth compared to the previous two months with an increase of 23% over the same period last year. In the first 9 months of the year, shrimp exports to the US reached 520 million USD, down 23%.

Along with the increasing trend of shrimp imports, the forecast of US economic growth is also quite positive. With more positive signals from markets such as the US, Canada, Australia, the demand for deep-processed shrimp tends to increase during the year-end holidays, Vietnam's shrimp exports in the last months of this year continue to narrow the decline and record more positive results than the first half of the year.

Besides the advantages, the export situation of enterprises still has many difficulties. The Import-Export Department ( Ministry of Industry and Trade ) stated that, besides the internal challenges such as small, spontaneous activities; low success rate, high cost; low quality shrimp seeds, there are also objective factors such as inflation affecting increased input costs, devaluation of the Euro, decreased world consumption demand, plus the prolonged war between Russia and Ukraine... that have affected exports.

“During the peak export months at the end of the year, world market demand may fluctuate unpredictably due to inflation, price competition with other exporting countries…”, a representative of the Import-Export Department assessed.

Shrimp exports in the first 9 months of 2023 to the EU market accounted for more than 11% of Vietnam's total shrimp export turnover.

Mr. Truong Dinh Hoe - General Secretary of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers recommended that in the coming time, businesses must increase their strengths in products such as organic, sustainable, and value-added products; have appropriate sales and payment measures; and at the same time, take full advantage of the advantages of the EVFTA to increase competitiveness for exporting to this market.

The Chinese market currently accounts for 19% of Vietnam's total shrimp export turnover. To increase shrimp export turnover to this market, Mr. Truong Dinh Hoe recommends that businesses need to be flexible with export forms and choose appropriate payment methods. At the same time, update import policies of the Central and local governments. Promote the export of strong products such as black tiger shrimp. In addition, take advantage of geographical advantages to promote Vietnam's shrimp exports to China.

“To achieve the country’s shrimp export value of 3.6 billion USD in 2023, in the last months of the year, businesses need to boost the export of advantageous products such as black tiger shrimp. At the same time, increase exports to China, increase exports of value-added shrimp products to the EU market, take advantage of the EVFTA Agreement to increase competitiveness…”, Mr. Truong Dinh Hoe emphasized.

Previously, Mr. Truong Dinh Hoe predicted that by the end of 2023, shrimp exports would be a success if they stopped at 3 billion USD. This figure is lower than the plan that the seafood industry set for shrimp exports this year, which is over 4.3 billion USD.

On the business side, they are also making great efforts to produce and export to the Chinese market. At the same time, they are expanding to markets such as the US, Australia, Korea, Japan, etc. However, to increase exports in the last months of the year, businesses also recommend the need for preferential loans to expand and upgrade machinery and equipment to serve the export needs to demanding markets.

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