80% El Nino will appear by the end of May

"El Nino" is the term used to describe the phenomenon of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean being 0.5 ⁰ C or more higher than the long-term average (TBNN), usually lasting 8-12 months, with a recurrence frequency of about 3-4 years. In the first week of May 2023, sea surface temperatures in this area increased and are currently 0.4 ⁰ C higher than the TBNN.

Some meteorologists fear this El Nino could be more severe than usual.

On average, each year Vietnam is affected by 5-7 tropical cyclones - including storms and tropical depressions (TPDs); equivalent to an average of 0.58 storms per month. During El Nino years, the average number of storms per month is 0.42, about 28% less than the average. In addition, under El Nino conditions, tropical cyclones often concentrate in the middle of the storm season, including July, August, and September; The number of cold spells affecting our country is less than normal. The end time of cold air activity in Vietnam is earlier than normal.

Under El Nino conditions, the average monthly temperature is higher than normal, with a more pronounced difference in winter than in summer, and the southern regions are more affected than the northern regions. Due to the influence of the El Nino phenomenon, especially strong El Nino episodes, many absolute maximum temperature records can be set in many places.

In particular, El Nino often causes rainfall deficits in most regions of the country; the common deficit is from 25 - 50%, most evident in the North Central region. Notably, in the past, in Vietnam, El Nino increased the volatility of rainfall through rainfall deficits in some places while also recording record high rainfall in some places within 24 hours.

The monthly forecast bulletin of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting also said: From May 16, the low pressure area in the West will develop and expand to the east, the temperature in the North and Central regions will increase again, and there is a possibility of heat waves from May 17 to 20. From around the end of May 2023, the temperature will tend to be 0.5 - 1.0 ⁰ C higher than the average; the number of hot days will also increase in the North, North and Central Central regions and will be higher than in 2022. In the south, the southwest monsoon will tend to be more active, with more rain in the region, and heat waves will gradually decrease in the South.

After three consecutive years of La Nina (heavy rain) conditions, the upcoming El Nino could be more severe than usual.

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