Of the four people who lined up at a military recruitment office in the Ukrainian capital Kiev this month, only one volunteered to go there.
Oleksandr, a former used car dealer, said he could not stand aside after seeing five acquaintances die in Europe's biggest conflict since World War II and volunteered to join the army.
The remaining three received summonses from the military recruitment office. Two said they could not join the army because of health problems, one had brain damage after an accident, and the other had to have multiple metal plates installed to support his spine.
The fourth person is Yevhen, 42, a sales manager with no military experience. "I'm not going to run away from the army, but honestly I don't know what I can contribute," Yevhen said.
The scene at Ukraine's military recruitment offices is now in stark contrast to when the war between the country and Russia broke out in late February 2022, when thousands of people lined up outside these facilities.
That illustrates the challenge Ukraine faces in its conflict with Russia: how to maintain a steady flow of recruits without destabilizing society and how to build capabilities that will help it gain the initiative on the battlefield.
Ukrainian soldiers prepare a drone for takeoff in Kharkiv province on October 30. Photo: Reuters
"However, the ability to train reserve forces in Ukraine is also limited," General Zaluzhnyi admitted. "We cannot withdraw soldiers deployed on the front line. Meanwhile, Russia can attack training centers. In addition, there are loopholes in the law that many people take advantage of to evade military service."
Ukraine has maintained a conditional conscription regime since February 2022, but this effort is no longer effective as the conflict drags on, causing frustration and fatigue.
According to a BBC investigation, nearly 20,000 Ukrainian men have evaded military service by going abroad despite a travel ban or by forging documents proving they are not eligible for military service.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky fired all provincial military recruitment office leaders in August after a series of bribery scandals involving people dodging military service. Earlier this week, Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine was reforming its military mobilization program, but did not provide details.
Ukrainian officials and Western experts say the country's military faces not only a problem with the number of soldiers, but also with physical strength, capacity and skills.
Jack Watling, an expert at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in the UK, said the average age of Ukrainian soldiers on the frontline and those trained by Western allies was 30-40, instead of the usual age range of 18-24.
“The issue is not the number of troops but the quality and ability to command large-scale military operations,” Watling said. “Ukraine’s mobilization last year attracted a large number of older men with disparate military experience. Now Ukraine needs younger men with more stamina and skills.”
The situation of the war between Russia and Ukraine. Graphics: WP
"Ukraine needs its soldiers to be in top physical condition," said Franz-Stefan Gady, an expert at the UK-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). "The physical demands on infantry are becoming more demanding and increasing as the conflict moves to small-scale fighting in trenches," Gady said.
Ukraine keeps the number of its armed forces and casualties secret. Some Western experts and local Ukrainian officials say the country’s armed forces number about a million, including territorial defense, secret service and border guards, double the number by February 2022. US officials estimate that about 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and 120,000 wounded.
To aid in the recruitment effort, Ukrainian authorities set up roadside checkpoints to detect draft dodgers. Those who appeared to meet the physical standards were forcibly taken to local recruiting offices.
General Zaluzhnyi said that Ukraine is establishing a unified registration system for conscripts. General Zaluzhnyi also introduced the concept of “combat practice,” which involves placing newly mobilized and trained recruits in front-line units to gain combat experience to learn and prepare.
Konrad Muzyka, of the Rochan Consulting group in Poland, said Ukraine has fewer manpower than Russia, so better training of its soldiers is essential to maintain their motivation in a protracted conflict.
"Ukraine cannot adopt Russia's form of warfare, which focuses on attrition warfare, because Russia can surpass Ukraine in many aspects from defense production to the ability to withstand losses," said Mr. Muzyka.
Ukrainian soldiers install an SPG-9 anti-tank gun in the area near the city of Avdeevka, Donetsk province on November 8. Photo: Reuters
In an effort to restart the recruitment process and attract young, better-educated recruits, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry said that volunteers do not necessarily have to go to the front lines but can serve in positions that match their skills.
The effort is partly aimed at attracting more people with information technology skills to units operating unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or other high-tech weapons.
Three Ukrainians with IT expertise said they might consider enlisting if they were guaranteed a position operating UAVs, conducting cyber warfare or doing similar activities.
Ukraine's Defense Ministry has signed an agreement with an online recruitment platform to help soldiers move to positions better suited to their skills.
“The project allows a person to choose a specific position in the unit where their civilian experience will be most useful,” Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Natalia Kalmykova asserted.
Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines are being paid more than $3,000 a month. That’s a high salary in a country where the average income is less than $500 a month, and much higher than the $650 a month paid to soldiers supporting the rear.
Deputy Minister Kalmykova said in early November that the country would continue to maintain compulsory military service, but would abolish it if enough people volunteered to join the army.
Vitaly Markiv, a Ukrainian commander on the front line, said the country "should not focus on quantity but on quality and intelligence" of its soldiers at the moment.
Nguyen Tien (According to FT )
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