When will an Asian team win the World Cup?

TPO - At the 2026 World Cup, Asia will have at least 8 places to participate. In theory, more teams mean a higher chance of winning. However, football is not a game on paper.

The third round of the 2026 World Cup Asian qualifiers will conclude today (June 10). Japan, Iran, Uzbekistan, South Korea and Jordan are the teams that have already secured tickets. The last direct ticket is in Group C, which will be decided by the match between Saudi Arabia and Australia tonight. In fact, Saudi Arabia (13 points, goal difference 0) has too little chance against Australia (16 points, goal difference +8). Therefore, they should consider earning a ticket through the fourth round of qualifiers, where Indonesia, Qatar, Iraq, UAE and Oman (or Palestine) are waiting.

At the 2026 World Cup, Asia has 8 and a half places. In addition to the 6 places determined from the third qualifying round, 2 places from the fourth qualifying round and one intercontinental play-off place belonging to the winning team in the fifth qualifying round.

It can be seen that the Asian qualifying journey is really arduous. If a team goes through all the rounds, it will have to play a total of 22 matches. This helps to minimize shocks, because a team that is rated low can hardly cause surprises in that many rounds, with too many matches to go through.

Uzbekistan will make their first World Cup appearance in 2026.

That is why the tickets to the World Cup in Asia are always stable. From 1990 to 2022, Asia has only introduced 2 new players to the World Cup, China in 2002 and Qatar in 2022 (as hosts). The rest are always Japan, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Iran and Australia, also known as the "big five".

So the rest of the world 's most populous continent has reason to celebrate as the world's biggest football festival expands to 48 teams. Thanks to that, Uzbekistan and Jordan can fulfill their World Cup dreams, while Indonesia and Oman (or Palestine) still hope to become the next newcomers.

Any team that wins the ticket is worthy, and at the same time shows their improvement in raising the quality of football. For example, Uzbekistan has reaped the sweet fruit of the youth revolution, even encouraging the whole football industry to participate, from discovery, training to giving opportunities, building playgrounds.

Jordan is another Asian newcomer at the 2026 World Cup.

However, it should be noted that there is still a gap between the rookies and the big five, especially with Japan and South Korea. These two East Asian countries have the financial resources to invest, establish a solid foundation for many years and continuously create a new generation of quality, world-class players.

Yet even for Japan and South Korea, the goal of advancing deep into the World Cup remains elusive. The Samurai Blue have never gone further than the round of 16, while the Taegeuk Warriors have only reached the semi-finals once, in 2002 when the World Cup was played on home soil (with Japan), and with it, controversy.

In addition, North Korea also reached the quarter-finals once in 1966, when the World Cup had only 16 participating teams. The remaining 1/8 rounds are almost limited to Asian teams. From 2006 to now, through 5 World Cups, not a single Asian team has made it to the quarter-finals. Furthermore, the fact that 16 out of 20 teams appearing in the semi-finals are from Europe and South America once again emphasizes that this is a game of these two football cultures.

The World Cup is still a game of two football nations, Europe and South America.

In a recent article in the Guardian, journalist Jonathan Wilson commented that in the near future, the World Cup championship will still belong to one of the European powers such as France, Spain, Germany, England, Portugal, Italy or the Netherlands, or one of the two South American teams, including Argentina and Brazil.

A 48-team 2026 World Cup, including 8 (or 9) Asian teams, would also not help the chances of history being made. As Wilson notes, the champions would need to play 8 games instead of 7, making shocks less likely (similar to what happened in the Asian qualifiers).

Looking back, Asian teams have won only 26/146 matches, a winning rate of 17.8%, while losing 90 matches, a rate of 61.6%. The increase in the number of teams but the difference in class still increases the risk of heavy defeats, such as Iran 2-6 England (2022), Saudi Arabia 0-5 Russia (2018), North Korea 0-7 Portugal, Australia 0-4 Germany (2010).

The World Cup remains an unreachable dream for Asian countries.

However, according to Wilson, compared to football in Africa, Central and North America and Oceania, Asia's chances of being crowned one day are still more feasible. This comes from economic potential, football craze and increasingly high quality players.

As seen, Kim Min-jae became the most expensive Asian player in history when he moved to Bayern for 50 million euros, or recently, Abdukodir Khusanov became an Uzbekistan player playing in the Premier League after a 40 million euro deal with Man City. The event of Son Heung-min wearing the captain's armband and lifting the Europa League Cup with Tottenham, or Lee Kang-in winning the Champions League with PSG, and Kaoru Mitoma being noticed by both Bayern and Arsenal are other examples. Saudi Arabia, with the support of the national Public Investment Fund (PIF), turned the Saudi Pro League into a new stage of world football, marking another transformation of Asian football.

However, the dream of winning the championship is still too far away. At present, participating in the most prestigious football tournament on the planet is enough to make Asian countries happy. Like today, there will be many festivals taking place in the most populous continent on the planet, when their team touches the ticket to the 2026 World Cup.

Thanh Hai

Source: https://tienphong.vn/bao-gio-mot-doi-chau-a-vo-dich-world-cup-post1749942.tpo