A Ukrainian artillery unit in the Donetsk region.
Although it is unclear whether Russian commanders have shifted their focus, Russian troops are staging an attack northwest of the town of Avdiivka in Donetsk, targeting the Ukrainian fortress perimeter, according to Business Insider on April 30.
Observers say Russia has long wanted to take control of the area, after advancing in Avdiivka in February, and now has a choice of targets to pursue.
Russia towed M1 Abrams tanks to "display" in Moscow
Russia's options
Ukraine has repeatedly warned that Russia is seeking to take control of the town of Pokrovsk northwest of Bakhmut. However, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW-US) said Russia has the option of “conducting additional offensive operations” around Chasiv Yar.
Charsiv Yar is a town near Avdiivka that is operationally important because it will provide Russian forces with a location to launch offensive operations near two of the four major towns that form Ukraine's "fortress ring" in Donetsk Oblast.
Charsiv Yar is located near Duzhkivka and Kostyantynivka, the two southern towns of the belt. The other two towns in the belt, Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, lie slightly to the north but also along the H-20 highway.
“The Russian military command may have decided that advancing north along the H-20 highway would allow Russian forces to conduct additional follow-up offensive operations from the east and south against the southern edge of the Ukrainian fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast,” according to ISW.
However, this is not easy as Russia may still have to decide to prioritize advancing west, rather than northwest from Avdiivka towards the fortress perimeter.
What weapons did the US provide Ukraine in the largest aid package worth 6 billion USD?
Ukraine's concerns
Ukrainian officials now believe that Russia has deployed four brigades "nearly equal to the combat strength of a reinforced division" northwest of Avdiivka to stabilize areas of the front and support infiltration operations.
The situation on the Russian side is also challenging. Ukraine appears to have slowed Russian advances near Avdiivka with reinforcements re-established in the area, despite facing severe manpower shortages and overall disadvantages.
In recent days, Ukrainian military officials have acknowledged Russia's tactical gains in the region, while reporting a dire situation as they await US aid.
The possibility of an advance in this area is being analyzed against the backdrop of Russia's expected major offensive this summer, when Moscow's military may have a chance to make significant gains in the Chasiv Yar area and beyond.
It remains unclear what weapons and security assistance packages Ukraine will receive at that time and whether its forces will be able to defend against a Russian attack.
Source link
Comment (0)