A long and difficult journey.

Công Luận•16/02/2024

Pressure for Europe to change.

In fact, for many years, the U.S. administration has been pressuring its NATO allies in Europe to increase defense spending. Former President Barack Obama's Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates, warned in a 2011 speech in Brussels about the "real possibility of a bleak, if not gloomy, future for the transatlantic alliance."

Former President Donald Trump subsequently increased U.S. pressure, saying at a NATO meeting in 2018 that if Europe didn't increase spending, then “I’ll do my own thing”—widely interpreted as pulling the U.S. out of NATO. Several of Trump’s former advisers said he had discussed such a move with them.

Europe increases defense spending; a long and difficult road ahead (Figure 1) — Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius break ground at a weapons manufacturing plant in Germany - Photo: AFP

In recent campaign speeches, Trump has reiterated his call for increased spending in Europe and stated that, if re-elected, he would not defend allies who fail to meet their NATO defense budget promises.

Trump's statements are reshaping the debate, highlighting a divergence in the U.S. stance on international security alliances. This divergence is evident in the recent actions of the House Republicans in blocking military aid to Ukraine, Israel, and several other allies.

And European NATO members, already fearful of a war on the continent, now further unsettled by Trump's threats, have decided change is necessary. This year, for the first time in decades, European NATO members will collectively spend 2% of their gross domestic product on defense.

Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said total spending would reach $380 billion but could vary from country to country, with some countries above or below the thresholds they agreed upon in 2014.

More urgent than ever!

Action is being taken to address the policy. Arms manufacturers are working around the clock, and new factories are springing up to meet demand. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen also broke ground on a new ammunition factory on Monday, one of many new facilities being built or expanded across the continent.

Europe increases defense spending; a long and difficult road ahead (Figure 2) — The US Patriot missile defense system is in strong demand from European governments - Photo: AP

NATO's procurement agency last month agreed to support Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, and Romania in a deal to purchase up to 1,000 Patriot missiles, worth approximately $5.6 billion, to be manufactured at a new European plant built by US arms contractor RTX and European missile manufacturer MBDA.

European Union (EU) Commissioner for Internal Market Thierry Breton attended the regular meeting of NATO ambassadors on Tuesday to discuss coordinating defense production and procurement between the two international organizations, which share more than 20 members.

On Monday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met with French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk to promote European defense production plans, potentially including the EU issuing bonds to finance the expansion, as the bloc did to finance its economic recovery after Covid-19.

Camille Grand, former NATO Assistant Secretary General for Defence Investments, stated: "The increase in Europe's arms supply is an untold story."

It may still be too little and too late.

However, these actions may not be enough to sway critics who argue that it is too little, too late, and comes after decades of low investment that have weakened European militaries.

And Europe's spending targets may be even more controversial: Nearly two-thirds of the money European governments have committed to buying military equipment over the past two years has been directed toward American contractors, according to the French think tank IRIS. The American F-35 fighter jet, HIMARS missile launchers, and Patriot missile defense systems are in strong demand from European governments.

Europe increases defense spending; a long and difficult road ahead (Figure 3) — The European-made NH90 military helicopter has more variants than the number of countries that are its customers - Photo: GI

EU planning bodies have long tried to curb nationalism and competition among the bloc's arms manufacturers, but without success, resulting in duplication, waste, and production shortages of some critical equipment.

For example, the European-made NH90 military helicopter, once touted as a model transcontinental project, ended up having more variations than the number of countries that served as its customer. This undermined the product's homogeneity.

Meanwhile, according to Admiral Rob Bauer, a senior NATO military official, the bloc's members, including 28 European countries, produce 14 different versions of the 155 mm artillery shell according to NATO standards.

The EU's European Defence Agency said that joint procurement of equipment between member states in 2021 – the most recent year for which data is available – accounted for only about 20% of total military procurement. The agency stated that these investments represented less than a quarter of total defense spending that year.

Joint procurement of military equipment by EU members accounts for approximately 5% of their total military spending. The European Defence Agency stated in last year's annual report that its members particularly prefer purchasing readily available equipment rather than developing new systems, and that most purchases are from outside the EU.

According to IRIS, a French research agency, defense procurement from outside the EU accounted for 78% of the money that member states committed in the past two years, with the US accounting for 63%. And procurement from outside the EU will lead to one consequence: weakening the bloc's ability to build its own arms industry.

Furthermore, maintaining Europe's increasing military spending could come at the cost of spending on welfare, healthcare, and pensions. This is unlikely to be sustainable for many years, while the need to rebuild the military is urgent and would be extremely costly.

Clearly, Europe has a long way to go and must make difficult choices if it wants to reduce its dependence on US military support and adapt to new geopolitical developments.

Nguyen Khanh

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