Ukraine War 20/1: Russia occupies a series of positions in the south of Avdiivka

The war in Ukraine has entered a harsh winter (Illustration: Skynews).

Russia occupies a series of positions in the south of Avdiivka

Suriyakmaps channel reported that in the south of Avdivka, Russian troops attacked and took control of a series of trenches adjacent to the summer residence and the railway line to the outskirts of Tsarska Okhota.

Due to lack of manpower, the Ukrainian army retreated to the next line of trenches and the first houses of the urban area. The deterioration of the situation on the Ukrainian side coincided with the resumption of Russian offensive operations on this axis after weeks of troop rotation.

Ukraine's DeepState channel acknowledged that the situation had worsened in the east and south of Avdiivka on January 19. Accordingly, in the past 48 hours, Russian troops took advantage of weather conditions to attack Tsarska Okhota and south of Kamianka in the south of the city.

The situation spiraled out of control as Russian troops overran numerous positions, crossed Tsarska Okhota along Soborna Street and charged straight into the city center.

The situation cannot be ignored or underestimated because Russia is blocking the logistics route, the Ukrainian forces in general and the 110th Brigade in particular need urgent support. In bad weather, only drones with thermal imaging equipment can save the day, so the need for their use is extremely important.

Meanwhile, the RVvoenkory channel also confirmed that Moscow forces successfully repelled Ukrainian forces south of the city, in the villages of Pervomaisky, Stepovoye, south and southwest of the waste treatment facilities, in the Ivushka 2 area as well as the Dubrava station.

A map of the Ukrainian battle for Avdiivka as of January 19. Russia controls the brown area, the orange arrows indicate the direction of their attack, and the area surrounded by the orange dashed line is where Moscow’s forces have just taken control. The green arrows indicate the direction of Ukraine’s retreat (Photo: Suriyakmaps).

Ukraine General Staff: Russia attacks in droves

According to a report by the Ukrainian General Staff on the evening of January 19, 87 clashes took place in the past 24 hours. Russia is actively using aircraft and UAVs, and conducting offensive operations with the support of armored vehicles, Ukrainska Pravda reported.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that it had repelled most of the Russian attacks in Kupyansk, Liman, Bakhmut, Marinka and Zaporizhia.

The heaviest fighting is taking place in Avdiivka, where Ukrainian defense forces have repelled 14 enemy attacks in the Avdiivka area and another 17 attacks south of Tonenkoye, Pervomaiskoye and Nevelskoye in the Donetsk region. Here, Russian troops, with air support, tried to break through the Ukrainian defenses but failed.

The enemy did not give up the intention to push the Ukrainian units away from the bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnieper River with nine unsuccessful assaults, the report said.

Map of the Ukrainian war in Avdiivka as of January 19. Russia controls the pink part and the red arrows are the direction of their attack (Photo: Deep State).

ISW: Russia considers NATO exercises a provocation

Russia is trying to continue portraying NATO's large-scale Steadfast Defender 2024 exercise as provocative in the information space, according to experts at the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukrainska Pravda reported.

NATO's Steadfast Defender 2024 exercise begins this week and runs through May.

The Russian Foreign Ministry has claimed that NATO is continuing its “show of force” on Russia’s doorstep. Russian sources have claimed that NATO is using the exercises to “provoke” and provoke the Baltic states into preparing for war with Russia, describing such exercises as a “series of provocations.”

NATO announces "major investment" in 155mm artillery shells

European Pravda reported that NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Director of NATO Supply and Support Stacey Cummings will sign the agreement to purchase 155mm artillery shells next Tuesday, January 23. NATO did not disclose details of the agreement.

Following Russia's attack on Ukraine, Western countries, including NATO members, are facing a shortage of artillery shells.

According to Western estimates, Ukraine uses up to 10,000 155mm artillery shells a day. And last February, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned that Kiev was using artillery shells much faster than the West could produce them.

The alliance is pushing member states to overcome protectionist tendencies and agree on common artillery shell standards to boost production. The US is seeking to significantly increase its production of artillery shells – up to 100,000 per month by 2025 – due to Ukraine’s rapid consumption.

Ukrainian M777 towed howitzer fires (Photo: NYT).

Financial Times: Russia may be preparing a major offensive in the summer

The Financial Times reported that the Ukrainian army is moving into an active defensive posture, and one of the reasons is that Russia may be preparing a new major offensive in the summer of 2024.

The Financial Times pointed out that Ukraine has switched to "active defense" tactics, which was recently confirmed again by the Commander of the Ukrainian Army, Alexander Syrsky, when he said that the goal of the Ukrainian army is still to hold positions and exhaust the enemy.

Ukrainian security officials believe Russia may be planning a large-scale offensive as early as the summer. The goal would be to take full control of Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia. Officials also say another attempt could be to seize Kharkov or even Kiev.

Ukraine allocates record $466 million to build defense fortifications

The Kyiv Independent reported that Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said the Ukrainian government had allocated about Hr17.5 billion ($466 million) to build defense fortifications, calling it a "record amount".

Ahead of winter, the Ukrainian government has received some criticism for its slow progress in reinforcing its defenses. A group was set up in November to coordinate the efforts.

Speaking at a press conference in December 2023, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Kharkiv boasts the strongest fortifications. The president added that he had called on authorities in other regions to meet similar standards.

Responding to a question from Kyiv Independent about why Ukraine took only November to approve the decision on fortifications, Zelensky said these efforts have been underway since the beginning of the conflict and the recent measure was aimed at further strengthening defense capabilities.

Russia is developing a cheaper version of the Shahed drone

TASS reported on January 18, citing a source from the Stratim military design bureau, that Russia is developing a cheaper version of the Shahed drone called Hawk.

The drone is said to be cheaper than the Shahed UAV, which Russia has used extensively in its attacks on Ukraine, and is built “entirely from commercial components”. The Hawk has a range of 350km and can be equipped with a high-explosive warhead with a payload of 16kg.

TASS claims the drone will be used as a "dummy cruise missile" or "decoy target" against Ukraine's air defense systems.

The design bureau is said to be completing a series of test flights and the UAV will be completed in the first half of 2024.

Ukraine retaliates with attack on Russian oil depot

The Guardian reports that Kiev said the attack on the Russian oil depot in Klinsty was part of a 'fair' retaliation for Moscow's attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.

Kiev has admitted it was behind a drone attack that caused a massive fire at an oil depot in western Russia on Friday, the latest in an escalating series of cross-border attacks.

A massive fire breaks out at an oil depot in Klintsy, Russia, after it was attacked by a UAV believed to be from Ukraine on January 19 (Photo: Alexander Bogomaz/Telegram).

It was the second attack on a Russian oil depot in as many days, part of what Kiev called "fair" retaliation for Moscow's attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

The attack was carried out by Ukrainian military intelligence on January 19 on a Rosneft oil storage facility about 50km from the Ukrainian border in the Russian town of Klintsy, officials said. Videos showed a huge fireball tearing through the storage tanks, while a plume of black smoke billowed over the town of about 60,000 people.

"Four oil tanks are on fire in Klintsy. For safety reasons, 32 residents have been temporarily evacuated to relatives' homes. A temporary accommodation center has been prepared," said regional governor Alexander Bogomaz.

Mr Bogomaz said there had been no casualties but 13 fire engines were deployed to tackle the blaze. He said the fire started after a drone dropped “projectiles” on the depot but insisted it had been intercepted. Two others targeting the area were shot down by Russian air defences.

Reduced US aid unlikely to have major short-term impact

CNN cited anonymous official sources as saying that US intelligence does not believe the reduction in aid to Ukraine will have a major impact on the battlefield in the short term but will become an issue later as Russia reorganizes.

More than $61 billion in US aid remains stuck in Congress due to political wrangling, raising concerns in Kiev about a shortage of money and weapons needed to fight Russia.

Russia is struggling to regroup its forces, according to officials cited by CNN. Despite Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive and subsequent Russian attacks along the eastern front, the front line has remained relatively stable in recent months.

Another concern is that European allies could also start to reduce aid if they see the US “balancing.” A lack of Western weapons could prevent Ukraine from carrying out some of its key operations, such as attacking Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and the Crimean peninsula.

The headquarters of Russia's Black Sea Fleet was reportedly severely damaged after a Ukrainian attack on September 22, 2023 (Photo: Telegram).

Finland says it sees no direct military threat from Russia

Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said on Friday, January 19, at a press conference with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson that Finland does not perceive any direct military threat from Russia.

"I don't see any immediate military threat from Russia to Finland. In Finland we sleep peacefully at night because we are well prepared," Mr Orpo told reporters in Stockholm.

According to AFFinancial Times, TASS, Kyiv Independent, Ukrainska Pravda, European Pravda, Suriyakmaps, DeepState

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/the-gioi/chien-su-ukraine-201-nga-chiem-hang-loat-vi-tri-o-nam-avdiivka-20240120104857984.htm