Bitcoin's 4-Year Bull Run Is Coming to an End

Many investors no longer believe in Bitcoin's four-year cycle. Photo: Bloomberg .

The cryptocurrency market continues to be in the red as many major coins such as BTC, ETH and XRP have all dropped sharply. Experts believe that a part of retail investors are still acting according to Bitcoin's traditional "4-year cycle rule", contributing to the pressure on the entire market.

Bitcoin fell more than 9% this week, Ethereum lost 6%, and XRP plunged as much as 15%, according to CoinMarketCap data. Several other altcoins fell even further. The sharp declines began after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose more tariffs on China, causing the market to record liquidation volume, about $19 billion in just one day.

Historically, Bitcoin prices have moved in four-year cycles, corresponding to the halving event, when the reward for miners is cut in half. Each cycle typically includes a peak after the halving is complete and then declines in the following years. With Bitcoin hitting a record high of $125,000 in October 2025, many believe the current cycle is nearing its end.

“This sell-off is partly driven by traders who still believe in the four-year model. It’s been almost four years since the previous cycle peak, and amid global trade uncertainty, they tend to take profits to protect their positions,” Matthew Nay, an analyst at research firm Messari, told Decrypt .

Jonathan Morgan, an expert at trading platform Stocktwits, said this could be the result of “machine trading”, where investors buy and sell based entirely on cyclical patterns, while Jasper De Maere, a strategist at Wintermute, said this strategy is outdated.

“The impact of the halving is no longer evident. The rewards for miners are now too small compared to the scale of global transactions,” said Mr. Jasper De Maere.

Not all investors are bearish, however. Research firm Messari believes Bitcoin could still reach its all-time high before the end of 2025, thanks to institutional capital and the growth of cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Other analysts also believe the traditional cycle is being disrupted by Wall Street’s involvement and a maturing market structure.

“Previously, mining rewards dictated the supply of Bitcoin, but now ETFs, institutional money, and derivatives have overtaken that factor. The four-year cycle may still have an impact, but it no longer dominates the entire market like it used to,” said Jonathan Morgan.

Source: https://znews.vn/4-year-cycle-of-bitcoin-is-about-to-finish-post1595297.html