US stocks 'dyed red' due to US-China tensions, what is the forecast for VN-Index?

After a sell-off in US stocks following new developments in US-China trade tensions, many domestic investors expressed concerns that the VN-Index could be affected in the first trading session next week.

Investors are concerned that the Vietnamese stock market will be affected by developments in US-China trade tensions - Photo: QUANG DINH

Global financial markets reacted negatively over the weekend after President Donald Trump threatened new tariffs and criticized China over its rare earth export control policies.

In particular, all three key indexes of the US stock market went down, such as DJIA down 1.9% to 45,479 points; S&P 500 lost 2.71%; Nasdaq Composite also fell 3.56%.

In addition, Asian index futures contracts all fell sharply, such as Hang Seng (-5.26%), China A50 (-4.59%), Nikkei 225 (-6.81%)...

Stock investors worried after sharp decline in US market

On major domestic stock forums, many investors are concerned about the impact of new developments that will affect the domestic financial market in the new week.

Speaking with Tuoi Tre Online , Mr. Truong Hien Phuong - Senior Director of KIS Vietnam Securities - expressed his opinion: The Vietnamese stock market is still affected to a certain extent by international fluctuations, but is not a "shadow" of the US market.

The trade conflict between the US and China, with tough statements from Donald Trump, may have a certain impact on Vietnam. However, the level of impact "will not be as negative" as many people fear, Mr. Phuong predicted.

"In many periods, the US increased strongly but Vietnam adjusted, or vice versa. The domestic market operates according to internal factors, depending more on businesses, policies and domestic macroeconomic developments," he said.

In the short term, Mr. Phuong said the market may fluctuate in a few sessions due to the influence of international news or profit-taking activities. "Adjustments are necessary to help the market absorb new demand and create a solid foundation for the next growth cycles," he emphasized.

However, in the medium and long term, Mr. Phuong forecasts that the upward trend will still prevail because many internal factors are creating strong driving forces. In particular, Vietnam has been announced by FTSE Russell to be upgraded from a frontier market to an emerging market. When completed, billions of dollars in capital from international investment funds will flow in, creating a strong price increase effect.

In addition, the great political determination from senior leaders clearly demonstrates a "strategic shift" for the economy.

Four recent central resolutions have focused on promoting technological innovation, private sector development and public investment. In addition, operating and commercial interest rates have been maintained at low levels, inflation has been controlled, creating conditions for businesses to expand investment and increase profits.

How to manage risk?

Mr. Phan Tan Nhat - Head of Market Strategy Department of SHS Securities - further emphasized that FTSE Russell's market upgrade is considered an event of special significance, not only for the stock market but also for the entire Vietnamese economy .

Along with that, GDP growth in the third quarter reached a high level, reinforcing expectations that GDP for the whole year of 2025 could exceed 8%, continuing to be a bright spot in the economic picture.

These factors have contributed to boosting investors' optimism, cash flow has shown clear signs of improvement and is starting to return to the market, focusing on new investment opportunities with reasonable valuations and Q3 business results are expected to grow positively.

Mr. Nhat recommends that investors can consider increasing the proportion of their portfolio based on the prospect of profit growth in the third quarter and the end of 2025, while maintaining a reasonable investment structure, prioritizing stocks with good fundamentals, belonging to strategic industries and leading enterprises - units that are assessed to benefit directly from the recovery and growth of the economy.

Meanwhile, the general director of a securities company emphasized that investors need to carefully analyze news developments and manage their portfolios to cope with risks and fluctuations. "We should not sell off at all costs," he said.

According to the CEO, there is often a gap between Mr. Trump’s words and his actions. He cited previous rounds of tariffs that were announced at very high levels in some countries, including China, but were later reduced.

However, tensions between the world's two largest economies could still have a global spillover effect, especially as Vietnam has large trade turnover with both countries.

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BINH KHANH

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/chung-khoan-my-nhuom-do-vi-cang-thang-my-trung-vn-index-duoc-du-bao-ra-sao-20251012191151307.htm