Market boom helps VN-Index surpass peak after upgrade news

With the news of FTSE Russell officially upgrading the market and the launch of VN100 Futures Contract, VN-Index has recorded impressive growth momentum. (Photo: Vietnam+)

The transition week between the third and fourth quarters has made a historic mark on the Vietnamese stock market, bringing a breath of fresh air to investors. With the news that FTSE Russell officially upgraded the market from Frontier to Secondary Emerging and the launch of the VN100 Futures Contract, the VN-Index has recorded impressive growth, surpassing old peaks and heading towards new heights.

Spectacular breakthrough

Last week, FTSE Russell officially announced the market upgrade effective from September 21, 2026. This event, along with the strong growth momentum of the economy, created a week of exciting trading in the market.

Mr. Phan Tan Nhat, Head of Analysis at Saigon- Hanoi Securities Company (SHS), said that the VN-Index ended the trading week up 6.18%, surpassing the September peak and reaching 1,747.55 points, heading towards the 1,750-1,800 point price range. In addition, the VN30 closed up 6.51% and reached 1,980.57 points, also surpassing the September peak and heading towards the 2,000 point price range.

Sharing this view, Mr. Dinh Viet Bach, Pinetree Securities Analyst, described the VN-Index as having experienced a week of exciting trading with the most notable news being the Vietnamese stock market being upgraded and the VN100 futures contract being officially launched.

"Right from the first trading session of the week, the market increased sharply by nearly 50 points to reflect the information about the upgrade and by Wednesday - when the official information was announced, the market immediately faced selling pressure during the session and at the end of the session, cash flow returned. Following that development, the last two trading sessions of the week recorded the market's upward momentum and a streak of nearly 50 points in the context of the quarterly financial reporting season of enterprises starting to be revealed. In total, the VN-Index increased by more than 100 points compared to the previous week," Mr. Bach analyzed in detail the market sentiment.

The focus is on cash flow

The strong market growth was reinforced by a significant improvement in cash flow, but there are still some points to note. Mr. Phan Tan Nhat pointed out that liquidity increased after 3 consecutive weeks of decline with trading volume on the HoSE increasing by 17.4% compared to the previous week, averaging 970 million shares/session, showing that cash flow improved well after a period of adjustment and accumulation. This also shows that market sentiment has become more optimistic in the face of positive information and prospects.

However, Mr. Dinh Viet Bach added another aspect of liquidity with the average transaction value fluctuating only at the threshold of 35,000 billion VND - a lower level compared to the strong growth period of July and August. Therefore, Mr. Bach emphasized that the cash flow only concentrated in the group of pillar stocks is also the reason for the strong increase of VN-Index, but investors' accounts can still decrease.

Cash flow concentrated only on pillar stocks is also the reason for the strong increase of VN-Index, but investors' accounts can still decrease. (Photo: Vietnam+)

Specifically, in terms of momentum, Vingroup stocks (VIC, VHM, VRE and VPL) contributed more than 45 points to the VN-Index's increase. In addition, market breadth recorded positive results across many sectors.

Mr. Nhat emphasized: "Real estate stocks stand out with outstanding representation in leading stocks, followed by steel, securities, retail, banking, oil and gas... However, some industry groups still have less positive developments compared to the general market, such as textiles, insurance..."

Notably, Mr. Bach pointed out that the cash flow returning to the banking group in the last two sessions of the week has strengthened the upward momentum of the VN-Index. The real estate group also recovered positively despite the draft to tighten loans for second and third home purchases to control prices. One point that professional investors and State management agencies need to monitor is the development of foreign investors.

Mr. Nhat said foreign investors continued to sell net for the 12th consecutive week with a value of VND5,046 billion on the HoSE floor this week.

"Although foreign capital continues to withdraw, the market still maintains strong growth momentum, showing good absorption from domestic capital," said Mr. Nhat.

Towards new heights

With strong momentum from the upgrade information and economic outlook, experts all gave optimistic assessments about market trends in the short and medium term.

Mr. Phan Tan Nhat commented that the short-term trend of the market will be more positive after the past month of accumulation. VN-Index followed VN30 in surpassing the peak price of September 2025 as expected. After being under pressure to retest the highest price range in September, corresponding to the 1,710 point mark, VN-Index is expected to continue to move towards the price range of around 1,750 points. Meanwhile, VN30 is expected to move towards the price range of 1,970-2,000 points."

Mr. Nhat also emphasized the macroeconomic factors that reinforce this belief: "Information about high GDP growth in the third quarter opens up expectations of GDP growth for the whole year of 2025 of over 8%. This is a highlight of the transformation of the economy as well as the Vietnamese stock market."

Sharing about the outlook for next week, Mr. Dinh Viet Bach believes in the scenario that the stock market will continue to explode to set a new era peak.

Mr. Bach explained: "Although the market increased mainly thanks to Vingroup stocks, I personally think that there was a spread to other groups at the end of the week. Next week, the third quarter financial reports of enterprises will continue to be announced and if positive, it will be a catalyst to push the market to accelerate to new peaks."

In addition, next week is also the derivatives maturity week, Mr. Bach predicts that the market can still push the pillar stocks before the maturity date, so expecting an increase next week is completely feasible. Regarding the direction of cash flow, Mr. Bach expects Vingroup and banking stocks to continue to lead the wave next week when cash flow has started to pour strongly into these two groups. At the same time, cash flow may rotate to other groups, such as securities, real estate, steel and public investment to help the increase be more sustainable.

According to a report by VNDIRECT Securities Company, after being upgraded to the FTSE Secondary Emerging Market group, it is estimated that Vietnam can attract about 1-1.5 billion USD from open-end funds and ETFs tracking FTSE indices. Although it is difficult to give an exact figure, the total foreign capital flow (including active funds) can be significantly higher and ranges from 3.4 billion USD (HSBC Bank estimate) to 6 billion USD (FTSE Organization forecast). In addition, HSBC also noted that about 38% of Asia-focused funds and 30% of global emerging market funds currently hold Vietnamese stocks.

Meanwhile, VNDRECT's research shows that stocks that are likely to benefit directly from the FTSE upgrade include VIC and VHM (real estate), banks (such as VCB, STB and SHB), securities companies (such as SSI, VIX and VND), large consumer groups MSN and VNM (food and beverage), FPT (technology) and HPG (industrial production).

According to VNA

Source: https://baohaiphong.vn/thi-truong-bung-no-giup-vn-index-vuot-dinh-sau-thong-tin-nang-hang-523239.html